moonslav59

I realize that if Price is out for 2018, replacing him with a 5 slot starter type makes sense financially, but I've always hated that idea. It hardly ever works. My philosophy is to avoid trying to acquire even 3-4 slot starters, but it's better than going for a 5 slot or two 5 slots in hopes one works. The Pom trade (3 slot) worked well, in terms of filling a high need area. I've always suggested building a rotation from the top--I know-I know--easier said than done. Hardly anyone's against acquiring an ace. When you acquire an ace, your current ace becomes your number 2. Your 2 become your 3, etc... It's like you improve 5 slots by getting one. In reality, it's not, but it seems like it does. Here's a look at rotation acquisitions in the past: 2017 (Slot is estimated at time of acquisition) 1. Sale 15-6 2.77 6+ Fister 3-7 4.53 3. Porcello 40-34 4.08 4-5 ERod 17-17 4.23 4-5 Kelly 21-9 4.35 (RP'er now) 5 Masterson 4-2 5.61 6+ R Hill 2-1 1.55 (4 starts) 6+ Wright 21-14 3.97 4-5 Peavy 5-10 4.48 5 Dempster 8-9 4.57 6+ Webster 6+ de la Rosa 5-6 Doubront 6+ Cook 2. Lackey 4-5 E Bedard 4-5 Penny 4-5 Smoltz 5-6 P Byrd 5-6 B Colon 6+ Tavarez 2. Beckett 2-3. Dice K 3. Clement 4. D Wells 6+ J Johnson 0-4 7.36 2. Schilling 4. B Arroyo 5. Wade Miller 6+ B-H Kim 1. Pedro

Maybe it's too much to hope for. Is there any reason they are waiting to do the surgery?

We may keep all 5 starters on the first series roster, but using Fister or ERod in an unfamiliar role while we have good RP'ers instead is a risk, I'm not suggesting. Keeping the 5th starter for a possible long relief or unforeseen piggy back situation does have merit. Day off G1 Sale G2 Pom Day off G3 Porcello G4 ERod or Fister (or Sale -1 day rest, if down 2-1) Day off G5 Sale (+1 day rest or Pom, if Sale used in game 4)

So, you want to bench Porcello or Sale in the first series? ERA vs CLE 0.00 Pom 5.1 IP 0.00 Porcello (0 IP-LOL) 3.43 Fister 21 IP 4.76 ERod 5.2 IP 14.63 Sale 8.0 IP

Nunez can also DH and play LF. Beni has struggled vs LHPs and could probably use a break. vs LHPs: Nunez can play LF (as Beni or JBJ sit), 3B or DH (HRam or Moreland play 1B) vs RHPs: Nunez can play 2B, SS or LF (as Betts gets some rest) He can basically sub for any player except our catchers. All-in-all, he should get to play 90% of the games, if that's what we want to do.

The injuries to HRam forcing him to DH only for a while forced Moreland (and Travis) to play 1B more than "the plan" called for. Games started vs LHPs (31 as a team) 31 Young (but not always instead of Moreland) 12 Travis 7 Moreland 18 Beni (13 games he did not start v L) 102 games vs RH'd starter 99 Moreland 99 Beni 26 Young (not supposed to start this many, but his .822 OPS vs RHPs is better than Moreland's .777!) 0 Travis JF has stuck to "the plan" for the most part, but the splits have not turned out as expected: In games when a RH'er started: .822 Young .777 Moreland In games when a LH'er started: .933 Moreland (mostly as a sub) .604 Young Go figure!

Luckily, I live far enough away from the Brazos. We live near the Katy-Richmond-Sugar Land border. Sugar Land, home of Roger Clemens and Tom De Lay, is Southwest of Houston (20-25 min drive to downtown).

I've always thought a 26 man roster is needed. I don't want a DH only signing either. A 1B/DH type is what we might get, but I'd like to see us try to bring Nunez back and then trade for a big bat 1Bman.

As well as Fister has pitched, he's not a lock for the first series roster. There's no way he ever starts in the first series, and using him in relief is too risky to try in a playoff setting. We won't even need the 4th starter (ERod or Fister) except maybe in long relief of a starter who stumbles out of the gate. My guess is a healthy Barnes would replace ERod or Fister. You forgot to even mention Abad as a possibility. To me, he's a "given" right now. I'm not sure Smith makes it, but we'll see how he does after he's called up. He's looking good in AAA. We could possibly start the first series with only 10 pitchers. We'll have had a day or two off before game one, play 2, day off, play 2, day off, play 1. Every RP'er should be available every game, unless used for 2+ IP. I think we go with 10-11 pitchers: Sale Pom Porcelo ERod over Fister (my guess right now) Kimbrel Reed Kelly Workman Scott Abad Barnes or Smith possible (Fister maybe in series 2) or just 10 pitchers series 1 C: Vaz & Leon 1B/DH: HRam & Moreland (Nunez) 2B: Pedey & Nunez 3B: Devers SS: Bogey LF: Beni CF: JBJ RF: Betts Bench: Davis Holt, Young Possible: Brentz, Lin, Marrero, Butler (to allow PH'ing for catchers) With Holt and Nunez as back-up IF'ers and no IF'er in need of a PH'er late in the game, I don't see much hope in Lin or Marrero making it, unless Pedey has to DH some. The most likely players to need a PH'er or PR'er late in a game are: Leon Vaz Moreland (vs LHP) maybe Beni (vs LHP), but this hasn't happened that I know of so far this year. To me, if we go with just 10 pitchers series 1, a third catcher should be in strong contention for that 25th slot. Even if we go with 11 pitchers, I could see us going with Davis over Young, and since we have Holt as the 5th OF'er, we could go with Butler over Young.

76-57 2017 (with Sale/No Papi) 74-59 2016 (with Papi/No Sale)

I'm one of the strongest adversaries to small sample sizes on this board. To me, 400-650 PAs is small. I posted the PH and sub numbers of Moreland as a rebuttal to those using small sample sizes to suggest Young be benched or DHA'd and the hot hand Moreland played even against LHPs and/or moved up in the line-up. When you look at Young's seasonal numbers- a small sample size scattered over a full season, he looks bad, Moreland has looked better, but some of his numbers are padded by his numbers coming in to replace Young when a RHP is brought in. To those where small sample situational sizes matter, this should count for something. It hardly means squat to me, since the sample sizes are tiny, but the idea all along was to platoon Moreland and Young and PH the other when the situation arose. All-in-all, the platoon has done well this year. Young has struggled vs LHPs, but has done much better vs RHPs than expected. That frustrates many of us, because we really need him to kill lefties as he has for years and years (3rd to 4th best in all of MLB from 2014-2016). As a sub PAs Player OPS 22 Moreland 1.699 (.754 as starter) 20 Young .763 (.715 as starter) 16 Rutledge .795 12 Marrero .556 10 Beni .522 10 Holt .311 As PH'er 18 Young .857 10 Moreland 1.457 7 Beni .286 It's hard to expect any hitter to do well with their PAs scattered all over the place and often playing just a few innings in the games you get to play in. Young has not done great in that role so far this year, but his long history of greatness vs LHPs, to me, justifies sticking with the plan.

I got excited over Brentz as well, but I was mostly gearing this post towards those who have been using most recent tiny sample sizes to guide their suggestions. O for 15 is really bad, really tiny and really recent.

I'm low carbing it.

It is. ..and I ain't no Limburger!

Top WHIP from 2003-2017 0.81 Uehara 0.87 Kimbrel 1.00 Papelbon 1.11 D Bard 1.17 Aceves 1.17 Foulke 1.17 Atchinson 1.18 A Miller 1.21 Tazawa 1.23 Embree 1.25 Okajima 1.27 Timlin 1.32 R Ross Best seasons (40+ IP) since 2003: 0.57 Uehara '13 0.67 Kimbrel '17 0.77 Paps '07 0.78 Paps '06 0.90 Miller '14 0.92 Uehara '14 0.92 Uehara '15 0.93 Paps '11 0.94 Foulke '04 0.95 Paps '08 0.95 Tazawa '12 0.96 Uehara '16 0.96 D Bard '11 0.97 Okajima '07 0.99 Atchison '12 1.00 D Bard '10 1.00 Aceves '11

0.667 Kimbrel 2017 0.565 Uehara 2013 0.771 Papelbon 2007 0.940 Foulke 2004 Other than Kimbrel's 2012 season at 0.654 and a couple of better seasons by Foulke, all of these closers had their best WHIP seasons in our championship seasons.

DD didn't even get a 5th starter to replace Price this year. I think he signs a couple Fister types and puts all his eggs in a clean-up hitting 1Bman.

2017 Pen Numbers (before tonight) IP RP'er WHIP/K-BB 60 Barnes 1.20/2.4 57 Kimbrel 0.67/9.6 54 Hembree 1.46/4.0 44 J Kelly 1.28/1.7 37 F Abad 1.14/2.4 31 R Scott 1.03/2.1 29 Workman 1.06/4.6 29 B Boyer 1.70/2.1 17 B Taylor 1.67/2.0 12 A Reed 0.81/5.0 9.0 R Ross 1.89/1.8 26 IP Others No Abad or Boyer next year. That's 54+ IP to be replaced. If we trade Hembree, we'll have over 110 IP to replace. Carson Smith and Thornburg seem to be the guys we'd expect to take those innings, but we'll also have Robbie Ross, a full season from Workman and some young bucks trying to make a mark. If healthy, I like how our pen looks next year.

I doubt we trade Kimbrel, Smith, Thornburg or Kelly, and nobody else is going to bring us the hitter (or SP'er) we need. I could see us trading out-of-options Hembree for a prospect and keeping all the rest. With Wright as a starter in Price's slot, and Hembree traded, our pen looks very good and just deep enough: Closer: Kimbrel RP2: Smith RP3: Thornburg RP4: Kelly RP5: Workman RP6: Ross RP7: Barnes AAA: Scott, Maddox, Taylor, Martin and converted starters- Johnson, Beeks, Velazquez, Cosart & Haley

I'd "do all 16 Dances!" (Dance This Mess Around)

Remaining games: Boston: 6 TOR (3H/3A) 6 TBR (3H/3A) 4 @ NYY 4 v HOU 3@ CIN 3@ BAL 3 v OAK NYY: 7 BAL (4H/3A) 6 TBR (3H/3A) 6 TOR (3H/3A) 4 v BOS 3@ TEX 3 v MN 1 v KCR They have 1 day off from SEP 7 to OCT 1. CLE 7 DET (3H/4A) 7 CHE (4H/3A) 4 v KCR 3 v MN 3 v BAL 3@ LAA 3@ SEA

As I said on another thread... The Yanks are toast. Cut 'em up and make croutons out of 'em.

In baseball anything can happen, but let the best team win. We all know who that is. Sweep the Bronx bums.

Chavis and Travis with dingers tonight (Wed). With all the creamed jeans over Brentz and his mega HR stretch, he's kind of cooled off over the last 11 games. 10 games without an HR or RBI. .220 BA 0 for his last 16 For those wanting to play "the hot hands", is Brentz "hot" or not? Is he a better choice vs LHPs than Young now?

The Yanks are toast. Cut 'em up and make croutons out of 'em!