moonslav59

I agree. I was making the point about what the CWS would take. I morphed the theoretical Espi into the real Kopech. If they'd take JBJ, Swihart, Owens & Johnson, I'd do it. I doubt I'd give JBJ, Moncada and Owens. I wouldn't give JBJ, Moncada & Kopech, nor would I give JBJ, Devers & Kopech.

Read this... Branch Rickey https://pursuitofpennants.wordpress....branch-rickey/ or this... Pat Gillick https://pursuitofpennants.wordpress....2-pat-gillick/ I'm not saying these guys are clearly better than Theo, but both were very impressive.

I guess my statement did imply that was all he did. You are right; he did much more, but so did Branch Rickey and Pat Gillick and others. I'm not arguing against Theo, but there are some GMs from history who have won more and for longer.

Not saying I'm for this, but what about this possibility? The Brewers would like to dump Garza's salary. We'd likely cut him day one, but taking on his salary might lessen the return for the next two guys: Trade: Drew Pomeranz- 2 arb years Travis Shaw- 5 years of team control (3 are arbs) Blake Swihart- 5 years of team control (4 arbs) Henry Owens- 5 years of team control Brian Johnson- 5 years of team control For: Matt Garza- $12.5M/1 (same on luxury tax) Ryan Braun- $76M/4 or $87M/5 ($21M luxury tax hit) Tyler Thornburg- 3 arb years remaining We get our DH and solid set-up guy. Milwaukee saves millions and gets many years of young player control.

I think they'd take JBJ, Moncada, Owens and Kopech for Sale.

True, but should that be the sole qualification for calling someone the best ever?

"last year" = "previous year". I still count 2016 as "this year".

The fact that we already paid the big bonus for Moncada, I think that only adds to his trade value.

Umm, I know. This goes back several posts about "what ifs"...

I think the Sox always had Vaz ahead of Swihart. I doubt the tiny 2016 sample size changed their evaluation that much. I agree. Teams do value defense more than offense at catcher, but I'm not so sure every GM is writing off Swihart's defense. He's still young enough to grow. His athletic ability means he can probably play another position, if catching doesn't work out. Salty, Vaz and most other catchers can't do that. Look, I'm not saying we can get Sale for Swihart or 3 Swiharts, but he still has high value, despite his recent injury. (Lower than last November though)

I'm not sure how much teams use WAR, but I'm sure they use comprehensive evaluations on all aspects of their skills.

I don't think I'd give JBJ, Moncada and Espi for Sale.

I'd say his value is about the same as Vazquez. He's a better hitter, but worse fielder. He's got a good arm and is a good athlete. The fact that he can play LF might help his value a bit. My thing on Swihart is that so many teams have crap for catchers, or their catchers are aging out. They especially have weak hitting from the position, and maybe on the team overall. I think some GMs would love to ass Swihart to their team and line-up. He may not be great, but he's better than what they have now, and he has upside. Over the past two years, MLB teams had a catcher OPS below Swihart's .714 in 37 out of 60 times. 22 out of 60 times a team has had a catching OPS below .650, 11 times under .625 and 3 times under .600. Harmony's Mariners were at .466 last year! I think some of these teams may be okay with absorbing some of his "poor defense" for a 100-200 boost in catcher OPS. fangraphs has Swihart's defense about the same as Hanigan and Montero from 2015-2016.

Well, the discussion was about his value, in particular his trade value, and Harmony equated his trade value to what we gave up for Salty.... which was crap.

Totally agree.

I agree it's lower than before, but lower than Salty after 2009?

There's just not much out there on the RP'er FA market beyond the 3 closers. I hope we offer Koji a competitive contract. Incentives sounds good, but if he's looking primarily at guaranteed money, I'd go maybe $9M/1 with a $500K bonus for 35 IP pitched and another for 50 IP.

Yes, I understand. I'm no spring chicken myself!

I actually had a mini heart attack myself when I saw this thread at the top, then I saw it was my old one.

I don't think players' trade value fluctuate that much based on an injury that should heal to the point of not being an issue at all. GMs trust their scouts and evaluation analysis of a player. I'm not saying Swihart's value is as high now as it was last winter, but my point is that I feel it is significantly higher than Salty's was at the same age. People say I'm all about numbers, but I'm not. You can't compare vastly different sample sizes and circumstances. Harmony almost always uses WAR as his valuation methodology, but he didn't even respond to my point about how these two ranked in WAR at the same ages as Swihart is now. Salty had the worst WAR in MLB as a catcher, while Swihart places about in the middle. So, he goes to career wRC+ not what thier wRC+ was at the same age as Swihart is. Salty's numbers were greatly improved by his big 2013 season at age 28 and a little bit more by his 2015 season at age 30. Even if you expand his sample size from 2007 to 2012 (age 22-27), his wRC+ was 88 (.720 OPS), and he placed 37th out of 48 in WAR by catchers. If you increase the sample size PAs to 1500, he placed 27th out of 31 in catcher WAR. Swihart places 23rd out of 47 in the metric Harmony almost exclusively uses to compare players. Swi is average and Salty was close to the worst. They were not close to even at the same points in their careers. True, Salty was traded the following season- mid year, and I get Harmony's point about Swi's value going up or down based on how well or poorly he does over the first 3-4 months of the 2017, but I'm comparing what both guys were at the same time in their careers, and I think clearly Swi has more value. We all know Swihart's biggest weakness is defense, but from 2007-2009, Salty placed 37th out of 37 in catcher defense according to fangraphs. Swihart placed 40th out 48 from 2015-2016 (ahead of Salty, I might add, who's at #45). That's not great, but it's not the worst either.

I don't think we should really count on anything from Smith this year. I expect him to help maybe by July, but I don't think we should plan on it happening.

Kelly has looked really good a number of times in his career. He's had as many bad times too. He clearly has nasty stuff. I have hope in him as he enters prime years, but my point is that we should not count on him and plan on not getting an 8th inning pitcher (I think two), because of some strong confidence in him based on a month or two of good pen pitching late this past summer.

MLBTR... The Red Sox are showing “strong” interest in Holland, tweets WEEI’s Rob Bradford, who adds that the right-hander will take about six weeks off following his showcase before he resumes his offseason throwing program.

Could happen, but planning on it to happen is dangerous.

I feel like I'm talking to a robot!