moonslav59

Only if we trade JBJ or Beni as part of a larger package for an ace.

I doubt they will either, but if he's not part of their plans for next year, we might as well get something for him via trade rather than just not offer the option.

$900K + $900K is closer to $2M not 3, but I agree on both. Once 3B is se6yttled, I could see us trading Rutledge ($1M)

Updated Under contract for 2017 (7 players): $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young. TOTAL: $123.35M (Note: Castillo's$10.25M and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remain off the 40 man roster.) __________________________________________________ Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan TOTAL: $1.3M (buyouts) 0 to $17.25M (giving both) Let’s assume we say yes to Buch and no to Hanigan’s ($800K buyout): Updated to TOTAL: $137.65M _________________________________________ Arbs (11players) ~$22.7M: Fernando Abad $2.0MM, Robbie Ross Jr.$1.8MM, Joe Kelly $2.6MM, Drew Pomeranz $4.7MM, Josh Rutledge $1.0MM, Brock Holt $1.7MM, Xander Bogaerts $5.7MM, Bryan Holaday $900K (out of options- may be DFA'd or traded), Brandon Workman $600K, Jackie Bradley Jr.$3.3MM, Sandy Leon $1.3MM TOTAL of 19 players: ~$160.4M (with Buch) _______________________________________________________ The 21 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Benintendi, Scott, Moncada TOTAL: ~$12.6M 40 Player Total: ~ $173M Now, add the estimated $12M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is... TOTAL $185M That leaves us with about $4M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M for 2017. If we assume it will be about $210M next year, which leaves us with about $25 to spend and stay close to or under the luxury tax. It is my understanding that the Sox luxury tax will be 50% next year, so I think there is interest to reset that number. Some of these players may be traded or DFA'd due to lack of options remaining: Holaday, Abad, Elias & Brentz Not taking Buch's $13.5M option and paying the $500K buyout would add $13M to the amount, but it would create another hole.

Thanks. This is the closest I've ever gotten. I'm no expert on arbs. I think I remember someone saying Bogey would get $10M minimum. First year arb players are often way underpaid when compared to the "open market".

Abad's out of options. I think he'll be gone.

I see two ways it might happen: 1) We pick up a 3Bman making both expendable 2) Pablo looks good and we are happy with Moncada's progress this winter (Shaw traded). We're too weak at 3B to trade away one of our options, before we know what's up.

While I'm not high on Shaw, I'm not high on Pablo either. I'm not sure we trade any of these guys until we know who the man will be.

I see the odds being pretty high that Shaw ends up below .725, let alone .750. My guess is that he ends up below .700. It's not out of any hatred towards him. He was my "sleeper prospect of the year" way back when.

Just a guess, but I think Sandoval either wins the 3rd base job or he won't be here. If ever there was a player "cut out" to be a DH, it would be someone like Pablo (at least vs RHPs). I do think he'll get a long look at 3B, and my hopes are not high on Shaw.

Speaking of Moncada, this from MLBTR... Red Sox prospect Yoan Moncada suffered a thumb injury while batting in the Arizona Fall League recently, per Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald. Moncada didn’t suffer any fractures but has been out for a few days already and could undergo further testing today. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski tells Drellich that while it’s the same hand that Moncada has injured in the past, the issue isn’t believed to be serious at this time. Maintaining his health will be a key for Moncada as he looks to force his way back onto Boston’s roster in 2017. The 21-year-old struggled tremendously in his brief September call-up, collecting four hits and striking out 12 times in 20 plate appearances.

I'm worried more about losing Papi, Ziegler, Koji and Taz.

I'm not an "expert" on the DH, but I know enough about it to know that not everyone has the mindset to be able to do it. Not sure where you went with the rest of this post, but I'm pretty certain that the Sox will know who will handle the bulk of the DHing by the end of spring training 2017, and it certainly won't be Swihart or Moncada, regardless of the fact that either of them could possibly be the "best option." I'm not sure what the argument is. I have agreed that at the end of ST'ing, Moncada and Swihart will be in AAA. It's about what happens if or when Pablo flops.

Shaw is a way better fielder than HanRam at 1B and Pablo/Moncada at 3B, so I don't see Shaw at DH. Shaw's fielding won't matter. What will matter is how comfortable Ramirez is at DH. If he isn't, he'll play first. Ramirez' bat is the overriding factor here by a mile. In limited time at DH, HanRam has done better than as a non DH. Who knows what his comfort level is at DH. Maybe he'd love it- maybe not. ____________________________________________________________________________________ I'm not sure why so many people are so dead set against using Moncada at DH (or Swihart). I get that it's not ideal, but they can still get work in at their position. IMO, if we need their bat, and we have nobody better, they'll be at DH whenever it makes us better. We went through all of this before, but there are several reasons why you literally never see young athletic players DH. Except in the minors, I guess. Look, I get the reasons why a young, stud athlete like Moncada shouldn't DH. He needs to learn a position and try to get to be a decent fielder there ASAP, and playing DH hinders that growth, but it doesn't look like he'll be a plus fielder anywhere for a while. Assuming we don't pick up a DH, I see Moncada as one of our best hitters out of the candidates to fill the DH role. Young looks to be the best choice vs LHPs, but it's easy to see Moncada as our best option vs RHPs, if not on opening day, then maybe after (if?) Pablo & Co. flop. If Moncada is raking it in the minors, but hasn't mastered 3B at AAA, will we keep him there out of some sort of tradition that needs to be upheld? ____________________________________________________________________________ I don't want to hash it out all over again, but I will make any wager that you would like to that Swihart or Moncada won't be part of any kind of DH platoon. They will play every day somewhere, at least to start the season next year. I'm 100% certain, barring injury. I have said the same as you. The season will start with Moncada in AAA, unless he magically proves he can field well enough. Look, they put Swihart in LF, and he got hurt. It's not like having him in LF is a big deal compared to DH, but I'm not even sure he can hit well enough to DH yet. Once the season begins, we may have to go through the depth chart to find a DH that works for us. It's not like Pablo has a lock on any role. It's not ideal for Swihart or Moncada to DH, but I think the odds are higher than you think, but maybe too low for me to want to bet on it, if I was a betting man. _________________________________________________________________ I think you also may not realize that there aren't a lot of guys who are cut out to DH. It's nowhere near as easy as most people think it is and the Sox won't keep it as any kind of revolving door for different players. It doesn't work. Where did I say it was easy? What makes you the expert on who is "cut out" to DH? 3B is not easy either, as Moncada proved this season. LF is not easy, as Swihart proved this season, and HanRam proved last season. I guess it was not only okay to throw HanRam in LF last year, but to keep him there through the ugliest ordeal I've seen in ages. Allowing him or others to play DH may be just what they want or like, and maybe they don't even know it yet. My guess is when Papi was put at DH, he probably would have preferred to stay at 1B. Somebody, somewhere might have said, "he's not cut out to be a DH".

I thought your statement that I responded to meant get EE and nothing else. We may not need an elite closer or something major, but we need enough to not really say "just sign EE and call it day." That's all I meant.

So, you're okay with our pen that sucked most of 2016 and is losing Ziegler, Koji and Taz?

Young-Pablo Young-Swihart Young-Moncada Young-HanRam (HR at 1B vs LHPs) I doubt we spend on a DH, unless it's Beltran.

Shaw is a way better fielder than HanRam at 1B and Pablo/Moncada at 3B, so I don't see Shaw at DH. I'm not sure why so many people are so dead set against using Moncada at DH (or Swihart). I get that it's not ideal, but they can still get work in at their position. IMO, if we need their bat, and we have nobody better, they'll be at DH whenever it makes us better.

I think they both have value. Maybe holding onto them longer may increase it.

Yes, there are, but there are also teams that don't have much. Plus, it's not all about your last year's stats, especially with prospects.

It's hard to value a DH. Papi did not get maid more than $16M and many of his deals were relatively short term. His age and fear of quick decline were probably factors, but I'm not sure what some GM will give EE. I'm guessing $110-110M/5- maybe $110M/6. I guess he might get "just" $80M/5 at worst.

Probably "absurd" is a alittle rash, I admit.

They still have value, but I'm done with both of them.

If we sign Beltran, when we play at NL parks, he can play LF, and Beni can sit or play CF as JBJ rests. If we sign EE, either EE or HanRam sist in NL parks. Not a big concern, but it is a factor to think about.

Yeah, well I thought what we gave the Padres for Kimbrel & Pomeranz was ridiculous, absurd and astronomical. Oops, I promised I wouldn't bring that up again. My bad!