moonslav59

We had the worst 3B WAR and the worst 3B OPS. Unless Moncada or Pablo improve out position, it's still a major or "glaring" hole. Our pen stunk for most of the year. A major reason we did much better towards the end of the year was the acquisition of Ziegler and the return of Uehara and to a lesser extent Tazwa. None of those guys are signed for us next year. The pen, as it looks now, is a huge glaring and gaping hole. Can we still win with two big holes? Yes, but when you count the loss of Papi at DH, I seriously doubt we won't make at least one serious move to fill one of those holes or get a big bat DH.

Just because Vazquez did poorly when he was brought up doesn't mean he was rushed. He may have been, but it's hard to know for sure. In terms of development of our young catchers I think they've had plenty of time to develop. Vazquez started in the Sox system at age 17. He reached single A at age 18, played 80 games at Salem at age 19 and 105 at age 20. At age 21 he was promoted to AA playing 101 games between A & AA. He then played 10 more games in the fall league and 9 in the winter league that year making it 120 games total in 2012! In 2013, at age 22, he played in 97 games between AA and AAA plus 33 games in the winter league for 130 games total. By the time Vaz got his look at the ML level he was 23. He played 66 games at AAA and then 55 with Boston. He played another 33 in winter ball for 144 total games. So far, it looked like a very good path and progress. His injury in 2015 stopped any further growth for a year, and maybe they did rush him in 2016, but I don't think his tough stretch with Boston this year set him back. If he's not ready for 2017, it's on him. Swihart's path started at age 19, but he really began playing significantly at age 20 (92 games at single A). He played 103 games at age 21 with Salem (A+). He rose quickly at age 22 (92 games at AA & 18 at AAA. He was clearly rushed into the bigs at age 23, when Vaz got hurt. He played 20 games at AAA and 84 with Boston. As it turned out, he did very well with a .712 OPS in his first 309 PAs in MLB. His defense was not great, and there was concern about how he worked with pitchers, but he didn't look like an embarrassment. The rapid demotion to start 2016 was a bit surprising, and the move to LF was rather shocking, but I have to believe that had to do as much with their low view of his defensive abilities at catcher than the big need in LF after Holt and Young's injuries. Swihart's injury this year certainly slowed his growth, but I'm not sure I disagree with management's view that he does not deserve to be the FT catcher. Leon was never supposed to be our FT starter. His slump to end the season might mean he does not have the starter role locked up for 2017. I'd give all three an equal chance at winning the job, and we'll see what happens. I wouldn't be surprised if any one of the three is traded as the need for catching is super high right now.

Who said that?

Hanigan's OPS was an incredibly low .468, yet he played 35 games at catcher (over 20%), so I think him playing over Swihart is a more glaring example than Leon. However, when we started playing Leon, his reputation was very low on offense. Once he started hitting, there was little choice but to not play anyone else.Your point is well-taken. The other clue was that we brought Vazquez up very quickly, perhaps before we wanted to and before he was ready.

The fact that we put Swihart in LF last year speaks volumes of Sox management's belief that Swihart can and will hit. LF is not position for weak hitters. Yanking Swihart from the catcher position so quickly this spring does seem to show that Sox management doubts his defensive skills as a catcher. Going with Hanigan and then Leon over Swihart amplified that view. I'm not saying Swihart can't improve on defense, but as of this season, I don't think he had the defensive value to be viewed as a solid FT catcher option.

A Beni-Young platoon is possible, if Beni struggles. If Beni does struggle, it will likely be vs LHP'ers. However, using Young in LF vs lefties would then open a slot at DH vs lefties.

At least for now, we have no outfield need for Swihart unless it is pure utility. On the surface this appears to be correct. We have 3 OF'ers that can play plus CF defense. That provides us with enormous flexibility and CF depth, however we have no ML ready OF'er depth on the farm.We have Young, yes, but he is not really a good option vs RHPs. He also missed some time last year, as did Beni and Holt. My point is, I don't think Young and Holt make a great long term option in LF, if someone gets hurt. I still view Swihart as our top LF sub vs RHPs (which is the majority split). A trade might change that but he is a more likely trade candidate than the others. Agreed. He's been in almost all of my trade suggestions. Swihart hasn't shown great power at bat so probably would not fit the 1st base slot as well as Hanley. There is a real possibility at catcher as neither Leon nor Vazquez is likely to hit well. I would trade Leon of the two as he has a higher trade value and his weight is really too high to expect him to hold up well during the season again next year. If we can get buy with Swihart and Vazquez, then our needs should be focused on third and DH as well as pitching. I don't think weight is a major issue with Leon, but I do think trading him while his stock is highest may be an option. I don't think that happens, unless Sox management is comfortable with Swihart's defense as a catcher. They yanked him so quickly last year. I have little faith in Sandoval. True he has lost weight, but he is quoted as seeing no problem with his performance the last period with the Sox. No contrition there and a likelihood of putting the weight back on. I'm not confident in Pablo, but there is a hope he can help somewhere. Shaw hasn't had any sustained period of performance at the plate. Sure he has. His AAA .715 OPS was over an extended time. His less than impressive AA numbers were also over an extended playing time. If you put the end of 2015 with the beginning of 2016, that is also an extended playing time. I still see some (little) hope he can end up over .750 in 2017. We either need to get a FA third basement or develop one of three young candidates and have him in the lineup by June or July next season. Moncada is our best hope at 3B, but he may not be ready by opening day. DH is either by committee or we really go out and spend big but the risk is also big. We have a big hole to fill with Ortiz gone and we need to improve in areas where we showed weakness last year. It's in DD's hands and things will need to start happening at the conclusion of the world series. I can see us going the route of nothing major: pick up a couple decent pen arms and a vet corner IF'er that bats lefty and then look to the trade deadline to fill any holes realized. Since only Young will be a FA after 2017, and Moncada, Devers and Travis so close to ML ready, I don't see us obtaining a big bat with a long term contract, unless we trade a big prospect or a starter at a position where one of the big prospects can play.

...Right now we don't have a hole in our rotation, and we don't have a major hole in our lineup at all... I'd say 3B looks to be a "major hole", but at least our best two prospects play 3B. We also have Pablo returning and T Shaw showing some hope. Holt & Hernandez offer some nice back-up support, and maybe between those 4 and Moncada, some one will rise to the top. That's the optimistic view, but the fact is our 3B position batted .685 this year (16 points behind the 29th best team in MLB). Only 6 other teams were below .730 at 3B. Two-thirds of all teams were above .752 and more than one-third were above .795. What's worse is how we ended the season with a .595 3B OPS. That's sickening. That's a massive hole. That's the pessimist view. Our catcher position also has a high risk of being a "hole in the line-up" on offense. Swihart offers a lot of promise to change that, but he is by far, the weakest defender of the three, so he may not play much as a catcher. Our .681 catcher OPS was highly inflated by Leon's hot streak that could easily be just a fluke. We ended the season with a .606 OPS in September. I'm very concerned about our catcher offense next year, but to me, the catcher position is mostly about defense, so I'm not worried about our overall cacther value when compared to other teams. The DH position could also be a concern. Right now, we are looking at the strong possibility (assuming no acquisition) that Young will DH vs LHPs, but who will be the DH vs RHPs? Pablo? Moncada? Swihart? HanRam could DH, but then the concern transfers to 1B. Overall, I'm happy with our offense and think we have less "holes" than almost every other team in MLB, even without Papi in the line-up.

Good point. Reminds me of when I wanted us to get B McCarthy or B Anderson- both came up short of expectations. I also remember suggesting we trade Middy (at his peak value) for T Bauer.

There's also a very important aspect involved with trading for a top SP'er under team control for 4+ years: does the other GM highly value the players we send them. He may value them more than we do. He may want one player over another that seems surprising to us. He may view an offer like Pomeranz, Swihart and Devers as getting two solid plus starters for 2017 and three solid plus starters for 2018 and beyond. We may view them all as questionable or highly questionable, but the GM might like them more than we do. (I know that's not very likely as we are prone to over-value our own prospects, but these guys have been ranked highly by national, unbiased services.) The offer might also be something like JBJ, Swihart, Devers and Johnson. Then, we sign Beltran for LF/DH. We'd have an extra SP'er or two to deal for pen help (like Miley for CSmith) or to just put in the pen (Buch & Pom?).

Someone better than the one we trade. It depends on who we trade. If it's ERod, Swihart and Devers, I'd expect Quintana or Sale. If it's Buchholz, I'd expect much less than Quintana but much more reliable than Buch. I can't think of anyone, so that's why I said "in theory". It might just be that and not reality.

Maybe Leon gets traded as his stock is high.

I'd love to know how he would catch 40% of the games as one of 3 catchers on the roster. Here's the rub with our catcher situation: Vazquez and Leon are plus defenders but have serious offensive concerns. Swihart is the worst defender of the three but is probably going to be a steady bat- perhaps a nice plus. If Leon starts 3 of 5 games and Vaz and Swihart one each, that's 20% for Swihart. Now, we pinch hit for Leon or Vaz (maybe in the 4th or 5th inning) and Swihart plays the rest of the game as catcher. Or, we PH for Leon, put in Vaz, and then later PH Swihart for Vaz and he finishes the game catching. These instances make up the other 20% of the innings and brings Swi to about 40%. If Leon sucks at the plate, maybe Swihart starts 2 of 5 games and gets his 40% that way. Maybe it's a combination of both. I agree, he may not get 30% in LF, but you are assuming no OF injuries. Last year Young and Beni lost some time. When Betts and JBj rest, Beni will likely play CF. If you rest Betts vs RHPs (as we should), then Young should not play LF- Swihart could. If Swihart didn't get hurt last year, he may have played 30% there. We tried to get Beltran to play LF at the deadline. LF is not as sure a bet as many think it is. Swihart may also be given some reps at 1B or 3B or both. My point is there are plenty of ways he can get PAs other than at DH, but I do think he'll get some there, unless we sign a big bat.

One theory might be to trade an existing starter with someone like Swihart and/or Devers for someone better or more reliable.

Even when we had Papi, we only spent $10-16M a year near the end.... not much in today's world.

I don't feel like we'd be "making him a DH". We'd be temporarily be using him there part-time, (if or) until he wins a position FT.

Could anybody see this as a realistic scenario, assuming Swihart is healthy day one? 1) Swihart learns to play some 1B this spring. 2) At some point in 2017, we go with 3 catchers, but Sihart is more of a utility player. 3) Swihart plays 60-80% of the games, and his games are divided like this: 40% Catcher, 30% DH, 20% LF and 20% 1B 4) That means Swi might catch 40-60 games but might play late inning catcher as the other catcher is PH for. (We could even PH for our 1 & 2 catchers twice in one game) 5) With Swihart as a utility player than can play LF, Young on the roster and 3 OF'er who can play CF, the need for a 5th OF'er is not there. 6) This leaves 3 slots open at 3B and 2 utility spots for Shaw, Pablo, Holt and Hernandez. Of course, parking Vaz in AAA to get more playing time makes sense too, but if we can find Swihart playing time at 1B, LF and DH, maybe we can still get Vaz enough reps to make staying at the ML level worthwhile. Of course, much of this depends on how Leon is looking.

This thread has really gotten off the subject of pitching.

Why? Because maybe he's the best hitter we have for that role. No way am I saying Swi should be our long term DH, and if we use Young at DH vs LHPs, maybe Swihart could DH vs some RHPs and catch some other days. It's not ideal, but I think we should put our best players into the line-up, even if it retards their growth on defense at a given position for a few weeks or months.

I don't want to trade Beni either. However, I'm open to listen to any offer. I'd also avoid Cespedes.

I totally agree, and I don't want to sound like I'm a Pablo apologist. I hated the signing the second it happened. The guy was declining long before the signing. Then, to fall off a cliff after already going through a long decline is not encouraging. I've said over and over that I'm not counting on one inning from Pablo at 3B in 2017. I'm also not writing him off or projecting him as having a significant chance at winning the FT 3B job on opening day or even by May. To me, his best chance at playing a lot is if we don't add a DH, and he platoons with Young as our DH. His chances at 3B are much less than as a DH, but it's not at zero. If Shaw sucks in ST'ing, then Pablo has a shot at playing his way into the job. He might not take as long as you have mapped out, but certainly it might take that long or longer if ever. He just turned 30. He's not the only fat player to play beyond 30. I'm not even sure how fat he actually is right now. I'd like to know his weight now vs last year at this time, and during his 3 WAR days with SF. Not that weight tells thew hole story, but it would clue us in a little more on how dedicated he has been since getting hurt this year.

He was pretty fat in SF. SF was seriously bummed out he didn't come back with them. That wasn't that long ago. Nobody knows, if he's fatter right now or will be by ST'ing than his "3 WAR days".

What are your thoughts on Logan?

Other than Jansen, Chapman and Melancon, is anybody else having difficulty seeing another free agent RP'er worth getting serious about? Relief Pitchers John Axford Joaquin Benoit Jonathan Broxton Buddy Carlyle Brett Cecil Santiago Casilla Aroldis Chapman Jesse Chavez Tim Collins Aaron Crow Wade Davis * Michael Dunn Dana Eveland Neftali Feliz Jason Grilli * Luke Hochevar Greg Holland J.P. Howell Kenley Jansen Casey Janssen Kevin Jepsen Brandon League Boone Logan Javier Lopez Brian Matusz Mark Melancon Joe Nathan Josh Outman Yusmeiro Petit Cesar Ramos Francisco Rodriguez * Sergio Romo Marc Rzepczynski Fernando Salas Sergio Santos Joe Smith Craig Stammen Drew Storen Josh Tomlin Jordan Walden * Brad Ziegler

I'm not counting on Pablo for Jack, but I'm not writing him off either. Yes, he's overweight and has been for his whole career. Yes, he got hurt shortly after starting the season after not looking very good on defense all ST'ing. Yes, he's a year older. But, I will say this, you know the guy has heard everything said and has read much of what has been said about him. If the guy has a shred of pride, he's dedicated himself to proving us all wrong. That doesn't mean he'll be successful, but he's actually still young enough to turn things around, if he really wants it. None of us know what's in his head. Even if he loses 100 pounds, he still might not be in the right frame of mind. He might still suck. He might get hurt again. The again, he might get over .780 and be an average fielder. He might become a successful DH, at least vs RHPs. The only reason I keep mentioning Pablo is because I have little faith in Shaw. I'm not writing him off either, but the guy had a .715 OPS in AAA and hit .242 in AA, so let's temper our enthusiasm for him rebounding too.