moonslav59

ERAs Last 30 Days 2.70 Suarez (30 IP) 2.74 Tolle (23 IP) 2.96 Gray (24.1 IP) 3.75 Bello (24.0 IP) _________________ 1.25 Chapman + Whitlock + Weissert + Gamboa + Olds (36.1 IP combined) ___________________ These 9 pitchers combined for 137.2 IP and an ERA of 2.55. (2.30 w/o Bello)

According to fangraphs, the Sox bat .248 with RISP, which is 18th. Their .727 OPS w RISP is 22nd. Overall, the Sox bat .246, which is worse but ranks 12tn, and have a .722 (also worse) OPS, but that places 11th.

While true, there are waysreak the season into smaller chunks and find other winning stretches, like 9-6 in the last 15. Keep on winning at a 3-2 pace, and we can advance and advance...

It's not meant to be a MLB stadium. The A's play in a similar park. This begs the question, what is the current worst MLB stadium? Angels Stadium? Comerica Park? Rogers Centre? Rate Field? Nationals Park? Kauffman Stadium?

I'm kinda okay with Wong as a back-up, one out of five game catchers, but we can do better. Getting good catchers is not easy or cheap. It's often hit or miss. Things seem to change quickly, too. I was very happy with Narvaez, until I suddenly wasn't. Bloom has made a lot of somewhat minor moves to improve the farm catching outlook, but most are too far away to help in 2027 and maybe even 2028. Primera IFA 2024 (ETA 2029/2030) Luke Heyman Trade 2025 (ETA 2029) Hudson White Drafted 2024 (ETA 2028/2029) Ronny Hernandez Trade 2025 (ETA 2028- maybe 1B/DH) Adonys Guzman Trade 2025 (ETA 2030) Jorge Rodriguez IFA 2024 (ETA 20230) Inherited Catchers: Jo Garcia IFA 2022 (2027/2028) Geraldo Rodrigues IFA 2023 (ETA 2028/2029) Kleyver Salazar IFA 2023 (ETA 2029/2030) If Wong is not back in 2027, we'd need to add one. Nate Baez and Garcia are long shots.

ERA- since July 1st (not counting today) 18 Whitlock 28 Olds 30 Gamboa 41 Chapman 51 Slaten 55 Weissert 58 Bello 69 ray 76 Miller 77 Tolle 79 Guerrero 82 Moran 89 Suarez 94 Bennett 117 Sandoval 122 Burggos

Sox vs RHPs: (2024-2026 added) .919 Gasper (.766) .878 Contreras (.824) .875 White (35 ABs) .790 Rutschman (.682) .784 Seigler (.677) .765 Anthony (.842) .748 Abreu (.791) .746 Rafaela (.717) .743 Yoshida (.777) .733 Sogard (.680) .727 IKF (.701) .721 Durbin (.717) .624 Duran (.798) .624 Wong (.641) .616 Monasterio (.630) .611 Story (.718) .517 Romy (30 PAs) .637 '24-'26 __________________________________ v LHPs 1.203 Jones (.867) .981 Contreras (.912) .871 Abreu (.762) .801 Rafaela (.694) .798 Monasterio (.743) .774 Yoshida (.591) .766 Sogard (.774) .737 Durbin (.728) .732 Wong (.775) ,705 Story (.707) .631 Duran (.633) .618 Romy (.892) .596 Anthony (.703) .550 Seigler (.592) .459 IKF (.548) .382 White (23 ABs) .720 .247 Gasper (23) .393 .154 Rutschman (26) .755 ____________________ Some conclusions: Should never start vs RHPs: Romy, Monasterio, Wong LHPs: Gasper, Duran and maybe Seigler. Should start vs RHPs: Contreras, Gapser, Abreu, Anthony, Rutschman, Rafaela (Yoshida, White & Sogard) LHPs: Contreras, Jones, Abreu, Rafaela, Durbin, Romy, Monasterio (Story, Sogard & Wong) Suggested platoon possibilities: DH: Gasper-Jones/Romy (but we have Yoshida and Duran) 2B: Sogard-Monasterio/Romy (but we have Mead) C: AR & Wong

OPS by new Team Players (300+ PAs) .905 Contreras .867 Alonso .851 Mead .819 B Lowe .811 Murakami .808 Liam Hicks .805 Bregman .781 O'Hearn .777 N Lowe .774 Okamoto .774 Arraez I may have missed some... Pitchers & Batters fWAR 5.5 Cease 5.1 Bregman 4.6 BLowe 4.4 Alonso 4.2 Arraez 4.1 Contreras 3.7 R Suarez 3.2 Gray 3.1 Okamoto 3.0 Durbin 2.9 D May 2.8 L Hicks 2.7 N Martinez 2.6 Lambert 2.6 Arenado 2.5 Murakami

Double + Triple = 0 Runs Hmmmm....

The last 1-2 month numbers support the choice, too.

When we need a 4th starter in the playoffs, I think Bello gets the nod over Bennett & Sandoval.

We think alike. Papi's playoff dingers, walk-off hits and key hits do go beyond regular season heroics. I'd love to see playoff Late & Close stats.

Wow, 11 pitches per inning for Bello. Maybe the "starter yips" are cured.

Career Papi: .931 OPS (.380 OBP) .947 Playoffs (.404 OBP, indicates he was walked more, but he did bat .292 vs .286 regular season.) .943 High Leverage (.388 OBP compared to .380 overall) .942 RISP (aided by 524 BBs in 3014 PAS) .951 RISP 2 outs (252 BBs in 1299 PAs) .967 Men on Base (762 BBs in 4192 PAs) .870 Late & Close (219 BBs in 1213) Papi had some amazing numbers in clutch situations. He also did in non-clutch times.

Fangraphs charted the team's impacted most by injuries, in terms of lost projected fWAR: 12.8 BOS 11.3 AZ 10.7 ATL 10.4 BAL 10.1 HOU & LAD 10.0 DET, CHC, NYM 9.7 TOR 9.4 NYY (Rays 24th at 5.3) Projected lost fWAR for reest of the season: 4.0 BOS 3.9 ATH 3.8 DET 3.7 NYY 3.6 CHC 3.5 SFG & TOR 3.3 AZ 2.6 BAL 2.4 MIN 2.0 TBR

Here is my end of season rankings (soxprospects listed if different than mine) My TOP 35 1. Arias 2. Primera (3) 3. Gonzales (2) 4. Valera 5. Godbout 6. Hull (7) 7. Delzine (6) 8. Schaffner 9. Gutierrez (14) 10. Holobetz (9) 11. Mataczynski 12. Shelar 13. Cespedes (10) 14. Winnay (19) 15. Brown (20) 16. Ma White (27) 17. Wehunt (13) 18. B Morgan (35) 19. Jo Garcia (37) 20. Brannon (38) 21. Ziehl 22. Heyman (28) 23. Ge Rodriguez (26) 24. Wehunt (13) 25. I Jackson (29) 26. LaFavor (30) 27. Phillips (15) 28. Soto (17) 29. Bastardo (18) 30. Rivera (25) 31. Finley (41) 32. Futrell (45) 33. Monegro (24) 34. Mullins (23) 35. Romero (22)

TOP ERAs on Farm (35+ IP) 1.32 Eyanson A-/AA (Traded) .476 OPSA 1.60 Bennett AAA (.570) 2.25 B Morgan A-/A+ (.452 is pretty awesome) 2.59 Rivera AA/AAA (.594) 2.64 Delzine FCL/A- (.527) 3.00 Tolbert A- (.616) 3.23 Uberstine A+/AAA (Traded) .621 3.27 Ingrassia A+ (.613) 3.46 Brown A-/A+ (.635) 3.50 Wehunt AA/AAA (.692) 3.62 Walker FCL/A- (.571) 3.68 Gamboa AAA (.743) 3.69 Paez AA/AAA (.644) 3.95 Mullins AA/AAA (.619) 3.98 Futrell 3 teams (.718)

Two more games and the minor league regular season ends. 200+ PAs OBP .499 Primera FCL/A- .450 Gasper AAA .407 Ronny Hernandez A+ .405 Winnay A+/AA .403 Salazar A- .402 Godbout 3 teams .399 Brito FCL/A- .398 Arias AA .407/AAA .385 .390 Fermin A- .385 Gonzales A+/AA ___________________ SLG% Leaders .582 Primera FCL/A- .566 Gasper AAA .560 Brannon AA .551 Arias AA .587/AAA .488 .548 Ronny Hernandez A+ .530 Godbout 3 teams .497 Rosario AA .494 Jo Garcia AA .480 Ma White A+/AA .479 Salazar A-

I'm not going to cry about the major injuries this team has faced and overcome, and certainly a Judge-less Yankee playoff team will offer Yankee fans plenty of excuse reasoning, but while the Yanks have had other key injuries, the starting pitching comp is lop-sided. GS by slots: 31 Schlitter vs 6 Crochet 21 Cole vs 28 Gray 19 Fried vs 27 Suarez 15 Rodon vs 0 Houck 0 Schmidt vs 0 Crawford 28 Warren vs 9 Bello (not injured) 25 Weathers (on IL now) vs 12 Sandoval 14 Elm Rod, Gil, Blackburn, Yarbrough vs 25 Tolle, 19 Bennett, 17 Early & 9 others ___________________________ Some recent Yankee numbers ERA/FIP 5.34/5.89 Cole in last 6 games 3.20/4.33 Warren in last 8 starts (3.67 last 10) 2.40/4.06 Rodon in last 6 (5 IP/GS) To be fair... 0.95/2.39 Schlitter in last 6 1.88/3.38 Fried last 5 games ____________________________ Some sobering numbers... ERA- since AUG 1: 30+ IP 36 Fried 41 Schlitter 57 Tolle 58 Rodon 60 Gray 77 Warren 83 Suarez 90 Cole 125 Bennett 136 Sandoval ____________________ A more encouraging look: 40+ IP since June 25th: 53 Schlitter 63 Gray 70 Tolle 73 Weathers (IL) 88 Cole 89 Bennett 90 Suarez 106 Warren 117 Sandoval (44 Fried in 44 IP and Bello 58 in 43 IP)

The Yanks are 41-25 when Judge players. 48-39 without Judge. Maybe this is as or more important: Team records in starts: 20-8 Gray vs Schlitter 20-11 17-10 Suarez vs Fried 11-8 15-10 Tolle vs Warren 19-9, Rodon 9-6 or Cole 10-11

I haven't heard anything positive about Ceddanne's return, but if MLB.com is correct, maybe this will be enough: Up to 90% strength with running. Team is hopeful he will play during the final homestand. (Last updated: Sept. 18)

I do think Bennett hit a wall, but that is not always the same as being toast for the rest of the season. We can afford to rest him, but the issue, to me, is that we may not have time to see if he has gotten over it. As of now, Bennett makes my 8 man pen, but in reality, for the NYY series, it will be a 9-10 man pen, as we only need 3 starter. I think we go with 12 pitchers and 14 everyday players in NYC. Gray-Tolle-Suarez are the 3 starters: 2 long men: Bello & Bennett (not Sandoval) 4 middle men: Weissert, Moran, Gamboa & Olds/Sandoval 2 8th inning men: Whitlock & Miller Closer: Chapman (I doubt Guerrero, Slaten, Houck, Crochet or Oviedo have time to return.)

To me, a better research project would be to deduct HRs from all teams the HHRs from guys who will be missing the playoffs due to injury.

I would not max out the pitch count with Tolle. He's my game 2 starter in NY. I'd start him first game, but the second game gives him extra rest for his next playoff start, and yes, there will be more playoff starts for all our top 3 starters.

What a difference 2 days makes.