moonslav59

With not much else to talk about, here's a conversation starter. Whether you believe in a short window or a cliff or not, we can probably all agree on the idea that we'll have a much better chance at winning in the next 3 years as well as beyond, if we can somehow get some serious contributions from within our current farm system. That could mean some big contributions from 1 or 2 guys or moderate contributions from several players. I'm going to divide the prospects into groups and then examine each group as a whole. (Rankings by soxprospects.com and age listed) The Power Guys: #2Michael Chavis (age 22), #20 Bryce Brentz (age 29) & #NR Jeremy Barfield (age 29): All hit over 28 HRs last year after never really showing that kind of power before. Brentz & Barfield are 29 and could be late bloomer surprises, but the odds are stacked against them ever making a serious impact at the big league level. Chavis offers the most hope but seems to be a man without a position. He may be too undersized to play 1B and not athletic enough to play 3B or LF. Maybe DH will be his only true opportunity. What are the odss just one of these guys makes a significant impact? I'd say maybe closer to 25% than 40%. The Fringe First Basemen: One could count Chavis in this group, but I'll go with #5 Sam Travis (age 24), #6 Josh Ockimey (age 22) & #13 Bobby Dalbec (age 22- plays 3B). Travis is nearing the do or die part of his career. He lacks the true power one expects at 1B, but he could become a solid bench player with a long shot at developing more power as he ages. Ockimey has more raw talent but has also shown limited power. Dalbec plays 3B, but he's listed as 6-4. If Devers remains our FT 3Bman, Bobby could be a long shot choice for 1B after Moreland's deal ends. Significant impact chances? I'd say closer to 10% than 20%. The Middle Infielders: #12 CJ Chatham (age 23), #18 Tzu-Wei Lin (age 23) & #23 Brett Netzer (age 21) make up this unflattering group. While Lin has shown some flashes of plus defense and quality utility value, I'm not too hopeful anyone makes a meaningful contribution to this team. I'd put the odds at closer to 5% than 10%. The Ready Starters: #22 Hector Velazquez (age 29), #11 Brian Johnson (age 27), #23 Mike Shawaryn (age 23), #10 Jalen Beeks (age 24) all show some promise. I actually like Velazquez as the "sleeper prospect" on the farm. Johnson has teased a few times. I'll go optimistic here and say the odds are closer to 25% than 15% one of these guys becomes a decent 4/5 SP'er. The Far Away Starters: #1 Jay Groome (age 19), #3 Bryan Mata (age 18), #4 Tanner Houck (age 21), #9 Alex Scherff (age 19), #14 Darwinzon Hernandez (age 21), #15 Roniel Raudes (age 20) make up the hardest group to project but perhaps the highest ceiling group of all. Mata and Hernandez might surprise, but Groome and Houck seem to get most of the accolades. Scherff is young while Raudes seemed to take a step backwards last year. There's a lot of players in this group- some with rather high ceilings. I'm going to say the chances are closer to 85% than 70% one of these guys becomes at least a 3/4 SP'er. The Long Shots: #16 Jake Thompson (age 23), #19 Travis Lakins & #26 Chandler Shepherd (age 25) are not likely to contribute. I'd say 5% odds are as high as I'd go. The Groups of their Own: #21 Austin Maddox RP (age 26), #7 Cole Brannen OF (age 19),#17 Danny Diaz 3B (age 17), #25 Ben Taylor (age 25) & #27 Aneury Tavarez don't really fit in any of the previous groups. I like Maddox and think he will be in the pen for a few years to come. Not counting Austin, I'll give the rest odds closer to 20% than 10% with Brannen showing the most promise. Put these odds all together, and one could argue we show a lot of promise, but I don't see the odds of producing one or more blue chippers as being even moderately possible. We could end up with a mess of role players not really good enough to lead us to a ring, but filling out the 40 man roster nicely. The 2020 40 man roster: SP: Price, _____, ______, ERod, Wright/Velazquez Mata, Houck, Beeks, Shawaryn, Johnson, Thompson(?) RP:Smith, _____, Barnes, Workman, Maddox, Hernandez, Shepherd C: Vazquez, Leon, Swihart 1B: ______, Travis, Ockimey 2B: Pedey, Hernandez 3B: Devers, Chavis or Dalbec SS: ______, Lin or Chatham LF: Beni, Brentz, Brannen or Tavarez CF: JBJ RF: Betts DH: (JDMartinez?)

Plus, he's had an OPS+ of over 139 for 4 straight seasons!

Unless he signs for $39M/3, he'll be the worst.

Hosmer will end up being the worst signing this year (per dollar).

You mean his half season in 2013? The trend comps are night and day. OPS+ (* 105 or less games played) Age HRam JD 26 126 154 27 95* 139 28 105 142 29 189* 166 30 132 ? 31 89* ? 32 126 ? 33 95 ? JD has been consistently between 139 and 166 for 4 straight years. HRam has been a yo-yo.

It is? I wish the rest of the Sox could "slow" their bats down like JD's.

Could kinda say the same about every Business. The entertainment business is priced way out of whack for many people to enjoy live- not just sports. Look at the price of a concert these days- even for crappy old fogey bands.

It's no secret I was against signing Moreland, but the very best part about the signing was that it took us out of the Hosmer sweepstakes.

I really think JD is the domino holding up everything else. Players and agents are waiting, in hopes the Sox miss out on JD and enter the bidding on the top secondary free agents still out there (Darvish, Arrieta, LoMo, Lynn, Cobb...). The history... QO signings Winter 2016-2017 LAD signed 2 of 8 (Turner & Jansen) Winter 2015-2016 LAD signed 1 of 14 (Kendrick) Winter 2013-2014 NYY signed 4 of 13 (Beltran, Ellsbury, Kuroda & McCann)

Or, the threat of Machado is gamesmanship by DD to try and stress the point that we are not desperate for JD.

We could always just sign a pitcher and Duda, if LomO goes elsewhere.

He's our first option, so in that sense, he's "holding up" other signings, but IMO, it's holding up other teams' signings not ours. We won't sign Darvish, Arrieta or LoMo, unless we miss out on JD. I still do not feel the JD signing delay is keeping us from extending Pom, Kimbrel of anyone else.

To me, it's more about most of the biggest spending teams resetting their luxury tax this year, and not so much about who will be free agents next winter. Just taking LAD and NYY out of the big free agent sweepstakes is reason enough for a slow-to-develop or "cautious market."

2014-2017 Power Leaders (1500+ PAs) ISO 4. JD Martinez .274 13. L. Duda .242 24. J Abreu .224 26. Frazier .221 30. Machado .213 40. B. Belt .206 46. Moustakas .201 53. L. Morrison .196 SLG 2. JD Martinez .574 13. J. Abreu .524 27. Machado .492 33. L Duda .480 41. B Belt .471 51. Frazier .464 57. Moustakas .459 87. Morrison .438 I'm still thinking, if we go for a pitcher, instead of JD, Lucas Duda might be an inexpensive power addition to our roster. 2017 only (450+ PAs) ISO 1. JD .387 10. Duda .279 15. Morrison .270 28. Morrison .249 29. J Abreu .248 SLG 1. JD .690 15. Abreu .552 33. Moose .521 36. Morrison .516 50. L Duda .496

It's my belief that we reset the luxury tax for a reason. We are going to spend big this winter- possibly to the point where we blow by the second tax penalty limit to just below the third limit. It's either JD or about the same money spent on others (LoMo & Darvish or Nunez & Arrieta?). I don't think we'll spend less, because we want to extend Pom or Kimbrel. I'm thinking we might look at QO offers for both as a way to rebuild the farm while replacing these two, in kind, by signing someone else with no QOs attached next winter.

Assuming normal health, I think our pen is a strength. We are strong and deep. Closer: Kimbrel 2. Smith 3. Thornburg 4. Kelly 5. Barnes 6. Scott 7. Hembree (out of options) 8. Wright (when ERod returns to the rotation) 9. Workman (AAA) 10. Maddox (AAA) 11. Taylor (AAA) 12. Martin/Buttrey/Poyner/Jerez/Cuevas (AAA) Converted starters? Johnson, Velazquez, Elias, Beeks, Shepherd, Shawaryn & Haley

If he "aged like HRam", he'd have already been showing signs of decline.

Isn't there no QO for Darvish. He was traded.

Mouse has one negative UZR year and you write him off as replacement level on defense, yet you discount all the "fun" that went with his 38 dingers in 2017. BTW, if Moose and his +4.5 career UZR/150 is replacement level on defense, what is Devers and his -12.7 UZR/150? Only 6 3Bmen have a better UZR/150 and more innings at 3B since 2012. Moose places 12th out of 35 3Bmen on defense since 2012 (17th in DRS). That's better than average and far from replacement level.

After a championship, our pick will be low anyway.

MLBTR... While free agent third baseman Mike Moustakas hasn’t drawn much reported interest of late, that wasn’t the case early in the offseason, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes. However, teams that initially pursued Moustakas balked at his asking price, Feinsand adds. Now, at least one general manager expects Moustakas to land a far less valuable deal than some outlets – including MLBTR – projected entering the offseason. “When you see what (Jay) Bruce got from the Mets, it’s hard to see Moustakas getting more than that,” said the GM, referring to Bruce’s three-year, $39MM contract. While Bruce will play his age-31 season in 2018 and Moustakas won’t turn 30 until September, the former did not enter the winter with a qualifying offer attached. Moustakas did, which is among a few factors that have worked against him on the market, as Feinsand details in his piece. Makes me wonder how much we might have gotten Moose for. Had we gotten him instead of Moreland, we might have been able to pass on JD and end up with Moose and Darvish with Devers playing 1B and/or DH. Less than $39M/3 looks like a steal against $125M/5 for JD.

MLBTR... Red Sox left-hander Brian Johnson has drawn trade interest this offseason, Cafardo reports. The hurler is out of minor league options, meaning the Red Sox could lose him to waivers if they don’t trade him and he doesn’t make their 25-man roster, Cafardo notes. Johnson, a first-round pick of the Red Sox in 2012 and a former top 100 prospect, has seen minimal big league action to this point (31 1/3 innings). The 27-year-old tossed 27 1/3 major league frames across five starts last season and did OK, notching a 4.33 ERA/4.90 FIP with 7.0 K/9 and 2.67 BB/9. Johnson fared better over 90 1/3 Triple-A innings (3.09 ERA/4.19 FIP, 6.97 K/9, 2.79 BB/9).

Before last year's World Series, Yu had 3 decent playoof starts out of 4 starts. IP H ER 6.2 5 2 5.0 5 5 5.0 2 1 6.1 6 1 (3.52 ERA combined)

1) Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale wasn’t as effective in the second half of last season as he was during the first, which has led to a change in routine this winter for the 28-year-old ace, as he explained to Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. “I’ve made a couple tweaks to my throwing this year,” Sale said. “Started a bit later trying to ease into it a little more. In terms of working out, started working out earlier, doing pilates. The same things I’ve been doing conditioning and strength wise, just kind of dialing back my throwing program.” Manager Alex Cora, pitching coach Dana LeVangie and the Red Sox trainers are all on board with the changes, per Sale, who insists it won’t mean a lighter workload in 2018. Rather, after leading the American League with 214 1/3 innings last season, he expects to be similarly durable this year. 2) Although Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel is entering a contract year, he and the club have not discussed an extension. The 29-year-old Kimbrel is open to staying with the Sox for the long haul, though, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald relays. While Kimbrel has been an elite closer for most of his career, including during an otherworldly 2017 in which he logged a 1.43 ERA with 16.43 K/9 and 1.83 BB/9 over 69 innings, new manager Alex Cora may use him earlier in games this year if the situation calls for it. Kimbrel addressed that, saying: “There will definitely have to be a plan in place, and it’s going to come from both sides, mine and his side. I’m sure we’ll be able to talk something out and it’s going to be based off workload and things like that. It’s just the way the game is going.” Mastrodonato posits that fewer saves in 2018 could mean fewer dollars for Kimbrel on his next contract, though I’d argue that teams already know what he’s capable of in the ninth inning. Thriving in a slightly different role could make him all the more attractive as a free agent, then.

I'm not sure Darvish + Nunez will prove to be better than JD, especially if Pedey comes back, but on paper, it's close. I'd rather go LoMo & a solid starter. At least he brings a chance for a solid clean-up hitter to the roster.