moonslav59

I'd have rather outbid the Cubs for Lester than sign HRam and/or Pablo and said as much back then. We could have had Lester and Porcello or Scherzer & Porcello. It wasn't really the trade that was bad, it was the initial low ball offer and how we squandered the saved money that made the whole plan go sour, plus the fact that HRam & Porcello basically sucked year one and Pablo sucked all the time.

We'd lose our 2nd and 5th draft picks and $1M from our international signing pool. Not good, but not crippling either. Perhaps, we could trade some of our out of option players for pool money.

He's certainly, given us more value per dollar than Price, so far. I said I wanted Scherzer and we could have had both. The point was, once we low-balled Lester, he wasn't signing here. We got Porcello for 2 months of Lester, and therein was the "value" of the deal. The part of that deal that hurt the most was the money "saved" by not signing Lester (or Scherzer) was wasted on HRam and Pablo. The actual trades, given the context, were not bad.

He had a major injury and returned to start 29 games last year. No matter who you pick up, there is injury risk (see Price). At least Cobb would just be $12M x 4 years and not $31M x 7.

Going by MLBTR's projections, would this be a better idea than waiting out JD and signing him for $25M x 5 or 6 years? Cobb $12M x 4 Nunez $7M x 2 Duda $6M x 1 Total: $25M first year $19M second year $12M third and fourth years We then trade Holt (save $2M) and Johnson (out of options) for a better pitcher who has options remaining. We try to trade HRam and cut $5-8M off our budget and taxes. If we can't trade HRam, we go with this: 1. Bogey SS 2. Beni LF 3. Betts RF 4. HRam DH/1B or Duda DH 5. Devers 3B 6. HRam/Moreland/Duda 1B 7. JBJ CF 8. Pedey/Nunez 2B 9. Vaz (Leon/Swihart) C (Brentz/Swihart/Hernandez/Marrero/Lin/Quiroz) SP: Sale, Price, Pom, Cobb, Porcello (ERod/Wright/Velazquez) RP: Kimbrel, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Scott, Hembree, Workman (Thornburg/Maddox/Wright/Taylor)

You're probably right, but hope springs eternal.

If that happens, maybe he'll retire like Dempster and take us off the financial hook (not likely), but if anybody can comeback from something this severe, it might be Pedey.

No doubt, and when one superficially looks at the rotation he inherited vs the one he left, it's easy to label that part of his judgement "clueless-" the low ball offer to Lester being the lowest of the lows, however, the staff was all nearing free agency and coming off "beergate." Serious mistakes and blunders were made. I'm not defending Ben's choices on starting pitchers. I hated the Masterson deal, but I liked the Miley deal. I disliked the Dempster deal, but many thought it was a good one. I hated how we treated the Lester negotiation, but once we screwed that up, I felt the trades (staff dump) we made was called for. I had hoped we'd have traded those guys for younger players, but Cespedes did bring us Porcello and Kelly is now blossoming into a quality set-up man. Craig bombed out, of course, but that was hard to know was coming. Peavy brought us Hembree. We got Marco Hernandez for Doubront. The jury still out a little bit on some of our acquired players, but the years of team control we had remaining of the starters we traded away were minimal. At the time, I argued we should have signed Scherzer over HRam & Pablo, but understood the plan to wait for the stocked free agent class of the following year. Ultimately, it's Ben's fault hardly anybody performed like they had the year before being signed or acquired (HRam, Pablo & Porcello being the most notable), but he wasn't clueless, IMO. I firmly believe he'd have made a trade or two like the Sale one but not trades like Kimbrel. He'd have spent as large as DD was allowed but maybe not on Price, which probably would have been a good thing. Maybe he doesn't sign Young or Moreland. Maybe he doesn't trade Travis Shaw (cheaper than Moreland's contract). Too many maybes to know anything, but I doubt Ben was going to just keep stock-piling prospects for the sake of it.

We can win with no more additions and a pile of "ifs" coming through all at the same time. Last year, we saw just about every returning offensive player but Vaz decline. That is not likely to occur again. I'd rather not depend on just 10 out of 15 "ifs" occurring this year. We should bee proactive and try to improve our team, on paper, so we can not have to depend on multiple "ifs". The biggest "ifs".... Price's health Porcello being up or down Pedey's health Sale's endurance Pom's trend continuing or not HRam's shoulder surgery working or not Devers sophomore slump or continued growth Is the 2017 Vaz for real? The 2017 or 2016 Bogey? The 2017 or 2016 Betts? The 2017 or 2016 JBJ? Beni greatly improve on 2017? Marco/Holt/Marrero/Lin/Quiroz hold the forst down at 2B? ERod's return during 2018? Wright/Johnson/Velazquez/Beeks as our 5th starter? The pen? -Carson Smith? -Thornburg? -Maddox? -Workman? -Barnes & Hembree? -Kelly?

LOL. Had we not spent foolishly on bad free agents and traded away about 20 prospects that had been top 20 prospects at some point, we could have acquired many of these players recently traded away for peanuts or far less than what we gave away in our recent blockbuster trades.

We'll never know who he would have acquired, but I'm certain he would have gone large for at least 1 SP'er (Price/Cueto/Grenke?) While Porcello has been largely up and down, he has given us an 8.8 WAR at a fraction of the cost of Price, Scherzer and even Lester. Ben also acquired Uehara, Badenhop, R Ross and converted Andrew Miller to a RP'er. This makes him at least not totally "clueless" with pitchers. Look, there's no doubt our rotation got way worse under Ben's watch, but I am certain he was planning on boosting the pitching the upcoming winter before he quit. He chose to try and boost the offense in 2015 knowing a bunch of pitchers were going to be on the market the following year. Yes, in hindsight, signing Scherzer instead of HRam and Pablo would have saved his job, but had Porcello and HRam had their 2017 seasons in 2016, Ben might still be here now.

So, basically you want us to become the Yankees of old. We're already the top spending team, and you want us to add 3 huge and long term contracts that will create unquestionably, extreme financial and draft/international FA acquisition penalties.

If we sign JD and need to acquired someone else at some point this season, we will be dangerously close to the top penalty limit of the luxury tax system. If getting $6-8M off the books keeps us under the highest penalty line, then there is more benefits than just comparing how good HRam might be in 2018 vs what we get in return. I'm actually thinking we'll get nothing in return but salary relief and the ability to sign other players without experiencing serious penalties that will affect us far into the future. I do think HRam might have a good year. I have not given up on him. I even think he could have a season significantly better than 2016. However, signing JD to DH would relegate HRam to a platoon role. That would certainly up the reasons for looking to trade him.

We don't know what DD has lined up or "in the works". He might have teams interested in HRam with various amounts of salary relief attached. He may be waiting for the JD shoe to fall before enacting plan B with a flurry of moves already agreed upon or close to agreement. I do have serious doubt anyone wants HRam, but I think someone might take him, if they just had to pay $6-8M. While that costs us $14-16M for him to play elsewhere, it still saves us money and taxes and takes us off the hook for his vesting option.

In isolation, if we sign.... JD, we trade/DFA Brentz Nunez, we trade/DFA Marrero Duda, we trade HRam (Brentz?) Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn, we trade Johnson

I've never been high on Brentz, but a spring training invite is harmless. It's not like keeping Brentz on the roster is keeping someone better off it.

Well, it does seem like some of the top, recent players acquired via trade have not cost as much as Sale, Pom and Kimbrel did. One could possibly imagine we might have gotten more had we waited a couple years. (Note: I loved the Sale trade, and I recognized the need to do something to end out last place trend back then.)

Not now. If we miss out on JD, and Swihart does not impress this spring, Brentz is the clear choice at 4th OF.

Depends if Henry is willing to go over the second luxury tax limit for consecutive seasons. It's really the third limit that can be crippling, and even then, it would be crippling to seasons beginning near 2023-2024.

I think we keep all three catchers. I realize getting rid of Leon gets Swihart more "consistent at bats," but I see Swihart's best chance at being impactful is to beat out Brentz and squeeze into a back-up corner IF role by hitting well out of the gate (including ST'ing). Note: If we sign JD, Brentz is "redundant", and Swihart's OF role will be severely diminished. I see Brentz being traded, if we sign JD. The biggest redundancy is at middle IF bench, but with Pedey's season and career in doubt, that's not a bad thing. Wheni t comes to trading one of them, one has to wonder about the return (or lack of one). Marco Holt Marrero (no options) Quiroz Lin (Tobias/ de Jesus/ M Miller)

I'm not sure keeping Marrero on the 25 or 40 man roster is a high priority, but you're right. Letting Holt or Hernandez start in AAA is not a horrible thing, since it does allow us to keep depth. Note: we do also have Quiroz and Lin, so saying bye-bye to Marrero would be no big loss.

Alex Wilson will stretch out as a starter in the Tigers’ spring camp, the right-hander tells Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. -MLBTR

If HRam does not vest, we have two years before having to chose between losing a key player of going over the major penalty limit. I'm not writing off 2020 either. (Porcello & Pablo drop off the ledger.)

When yourself starts talking back, it's time for a vacation or something.

Being able to play LF and a corner IF position as well as be our 3rd catcher has a lot of value-- assuming he can hit. It's nice to be able to PH for Vaz or Leon and not have to worry about an in-game injury to the back-up. Swihart being able to play LF might make Brentz the odd man out. It also makes trading Holt more palatable. My guess is Marrero starts on the phantom DL, gets traded or DFA'd.