A quick look at the future and approaching or reaching "the tax":
After 2017, we lose:
$6.5M Young
$5.5M Moreland
$2.0M Abad
$14M Total
--My hope is we can replace all of these guys with players within our current system (Travis for Moreland, Devers or Swihart for Young, and several contenders for Abad's slot.) The money "saved" will pay for arb raises and leave a cushion for mid-season acquisitions. If we don't spend the money we have this year on a mid-season trade that involves a player under contract into next year, we may be able to sign a significant player (big bat?) this winter, but any long term deal at big money will hamper our ability to keep all our important players without being taxed (and possibly further penalized) heavily.
After 2018, we lose:
$12M Kimbrel
~$7M Pomeranz (last arb year)
~$3.5M J Kelly (last arb year)
~$2.5M R Ross (last arb year)
$25M Total
We will need to find replacements for some of these guys. Maybe Wright can replace Pom, Smith for Kimbrel, and Thornburg can take up the slack of losing Kelly and Ross, but the rest of the pen might be weak.
The real fun begins after 2019:
$22M HRam
$20.6M Porcello
$19M Pablo
$13.5M Sale
~$13.5M Bogey (last arb)
~$5.4M Thornburg
$94M Total
That's a lot of money. Keeping Bogey and Saleand re-signing Porcello (or the like) is certainly doable, and if Devers and Travis are filling the shoes of HRam and Pablo well enough, we should be okay until the next winter. There's no wiggle room for a mistake.