moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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2017 end of season Yankee prospect update
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Other Baseball
It doesn't work that way, but your point is well-taken. -
It might not be as "new" as people think. Chavis was injured early in his pro career.
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Yes, Chavis could be fast-tracked, if HRam or Moreland bomb or get hurt. I can't see Chavis playing 3B or 2B this year in Boston.
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Is the $140M/7 confirmed and still on the table?
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Right now, nobody is talking to Moose. His price may drop way down. He could play 3B and Devers could DH/1B. If we don't get JD, I'd look at LoMo or Moose with Duda as a secondary option. If we end up with Duda, I'd spend the rest of the money on Cobb or Lynn, despite their "issues".
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Or, add a $20M option with a $5M buyout, essentially making it a $130M/6 for tax purposes and $130M/5 in reality.
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Chavis might be ML ready by summer... as a DH. He might be ready by fall to play 1B. I seriously doubt anyone in the organization is even thinking of Chavis playing 2B. His defense was so bad at 3B, they are trying him at 1B. He's not playing 2B.
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Duda might get $7M x 2.
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Maybe we have differing views on what the word "elite" means, but Hosmer ranks 12th out 31 1Bmen in WAR since 2014. He's not even top third at his position. He's not bad, but at that money, we should get true "elite". Here are some other 1Bmen numbers from the last 4 years combined: (Think of the difference in contract amounts between these players listed.) 31 1Bmen with 1500+ PAs ISO 4. Duda .242 18. LoMo .196 23. Moreland .187 29. Hosmer .160 SLG 8. Duda .480 18. Hosmer .449 24. Moreland .438 (just .011 behing Hoze) 25. Morrison .438 UZR/150 (31 with 2000+ innings) 2. Moreland 6.4 20. L Duda 0.1 24. Morrison -1.3 25 Hosmer -1.9 WAR 12. Hosmer 7.4 13. Duda 6.9 (Might sign for $15M/2) 18. Morrison 4.7 28. Moreland 2.9 If we don't get JD, we should sign a solid pitcher (Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb) plus Duda or Morrison (or maybe Nunez).
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You don't even blink at the fact that half his seasons are crappy, and he's only had one somewhat "elite" season? You don't even blink at his crappy defense? You don't even blink at the fact that we need power more than anything, and Hosmer is one of the worst power hitting 1Bmen in the league? Look, he's better than Moreland on offense and overall. If your sold on one year wonders, why not advocate for LoMo? He'll probably sign for 2-3 years at close to half what you want to offer Hoze. BTW, probably as many writers called Pablo "elite" as Hosmer.
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Yes, that could happen, too. Hopefully, we don't get caught without an good option B, if we miss out on JD, but I can't see DD letting that happen. Something will happen soon.
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I'm hopeful DD has 2-3 other options in mind, and when those start to sign or are close to signing, he'll give Boras/JD a timed ultimatum.
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Not on my list. I'd add Moustakas, Nunez, Duda and maybe more before I make Hosmer my option B.
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I'm not saying Hosmer is equal to Moreland. He's marginally better, but these numbers don't lie: Hosmer is Moreland without the defense every even year, or at least equal to Moreland's every other year. Moreland's OPS+ 118 in 2010 106 in 2012 99 in 2013 116 in 2015 99 in 2017 Hosmer's even years: 81 in 2012 99 in 2014 102 in 2016 Years at 106 OPS+ or better Moreland 3 out of 8 Hosmer 4 out of 7 To be fair... Years at or above 99 Moreland 5 out of 8 Hosmer 6 out of 7 UZR/150 Career Moreland +5.4/ +18 DRS (4 of 8 seasons above 5.8) EHosmer -4.1/-21 DRS (0 of 7 seasons above 2.2) WAR Moreland 1 of 8 seasons at or below 0.0. EHosmer 3 of 7 seasons at or below 0.0.
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So, 29 will mark the stoppage of the yo-yo syndrome? No, thanks. I'd rather sign the guy (JD) who has had an OPS+ above 139 for 4 straight years, despite the age difference.
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He's barely an upgrade over Moreland, but is expected to get 5+ years at $20M a year. To me, anything over about $36M/3 will be an overpay. $100M/5 is a gross overpay. He's not the great fielder some think he is. In fact, he's a negative. The OPS+ Yo-Yo... 118 81 118 99 122 102 132 Every even year he is average. Every odd year he is better. His 2017 132+ OPS is 10 better than any previous season (outlier alert?) He has been up and down his whole career, so expecting him to repeat 2017 would be a first.
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Everything in me says Hosmer would be a terrible signing.
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Since Boston is apparently not on the 6 team list Yu Darvish is considering, I guess our "option B" might be Arrieta, Lynn, Cobb or LoMo.
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From soxprospects.com Mexican Pacific League http://news.soxprospects.com/2018/01/fallwinter-league-roundup-velazquez.html They Mayos de Navojoa trotted out game one winner Hector Velazquez (pictured) in the fifth game of their semifinal series against Jalisco. Despite a very strong effort by the righty, Navajoa dropped a 3-0 decision. Velazquez allowed just one run on three hits in five innings, striking out three without issuing a walk, and inducing eight groundball outs. Overall, Velazquez surrendered only two runs in 10 innings in his two starts in the semi-final series. Navojoa prevailed in game six to advance to the league championship series against Culiacan. Velazquez is likely to start in game three on Tuesday if Navojoa holds to its rotation, with los Mayos in a 2-0 hole.
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It does seem like teams prefer to trade for more ML- ready players thyan far-away ones, but GMs still value high ceiling prospects. We got 2.5 seasons of Pomeranz for Espinoza.
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The sample contains all 58 SSs who qualified in that time period, including SSs who retired or just had one qualifying season (rookie and second year SSs.) As for 2017 boosting his ranking, of course it did, but can I remove every other SSs best year from their ranking, too? Here's the list of SSs from 2012-2016 (NO 2017): Cozart ranks 14th out of 50. (He ranks 13th out of 23 among SSs with 2000+ PAs.) He ranked 4th out of 21 in UZR/150 from 2012-2016. +10.7 is awesome defense. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Also, his BABIP was only 30 points above his career .280 mark. His OPS increase was also largely fueled by his BB% being nearly double his career numbers (%12.2 to 6.4%) and his ISO number being 100 points over his career norm- neither is related to the "luck factor" associated with BABIP.
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From 2012-2017, Cozart ranks as the 8th best SS, by WAR, out of 58 who qualified. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 That's big sample size. If you go by just the 28 SSs with 2,000+ PAs, he ranks 6th out of 28. While his .714 OPS ranks 16th out of 28, his UZR/150 ranks 4th. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,d BTW, 32 is "early 30's" not "mid 30's".
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Wow! Not to worry, the cliff naysayers claim our farm will be "replenished" in no time. (Losing Flores did not help.)
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Many are post prospect, now.
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My bad. 14 HRs and 29 (2B+3B) in 452 ABs last season is not bad.
