moonslav59

OPS now .767 and climbing.

...and just like that, his OPS is up to a respectable .755!

Many catcher take a long time to reach their best. VTek was over 31-32 before he became a top catcher. I'm not proclaiming Leon the next VTek, but he's still young enough to get even better.

While I think today could be a big game and maybe a starting point of turning around a s0-s0 season, I never feel like any game is must win, unless it's a near elimination game.

lol!!!

Agreed, although Kelly has yet to let up an HR (24.1 IP this year).

And they miss the obvious reason. Xander might be ninth not because of what he does. But because 8 other shortstops do it better... I admit, I have watch almost no MLB games not involving the Sox over the 50 years I've followed baseball. I have watched some Astros games recently, but no where near the amount of Sox games. That being said, I know I have seen plays made by visiting SSs that I've never seen Bogey make. It's not just one here or there either. It's enough for me to know Bogey is not even close to being the best defensive SS in MLB. I like UZR/150, and I think it is much more accurate than me or any other fan watching mostly just Sox games and looking at Flg% and RF/9 like the old days to try and determine what ranking our defenders should have in the pecking order. Most posters know I was a big Iggy fan and have always highly valued, perhaps too much, SS defense. I was one of those posters suggesting we move and keep Bogey at 3B. Maybe I'm still biased against his defense, but I did admit he progressed more than I thought he would a couple of years ago aafter his decent 2015 defensive season. Now, I'm not so sure about his "progression". I felt he took a slight step backwards last year, on defense, and he hasn't shown any growth this year. The UZR/150 supports my opinion, but we no longer have an Iggy in our system, so I see no reason to move him off SS for the foreseeable future. Right now, Bogey ranks 18th out of 29 in UZR and 15th out of 29 in UZR/150 at barley a plus (+0.7). Look, I'm thrilled to have an average fielding SS who is hitting over .330, but that doesn't mean I'm not disappointed that his defense seemed to stop improving after 2015. Bogey's UZR and UZR/150 at SS since 2014: Year UZR UZR/150 2014 -2.7 -3.7 2015 +1.0 +0.9 2016 -2.9 -2.8 2017 -0.1 +0.7 What gets me most is his range numbers, although they look better this year than past years: 2014: -2.3 2015: -4.6 2016: -3.5 2017: -0.8

I hate losing, too, but I tend to take the "long view". Too many times I've seen the Sox look so awful for short and long stretches, only to then see them turn things around and look like champions for long stretches. Almost all seasons, including championship ones, have ups and downs. Every year we won a ring, there were moments when the fan base was down on the team. I don't understand why it's so hard for some people to remember those times and those turn-arounds and at least try to stop being so jumpy over a couple or handful of bad games. We've had our $30+M pitcher out almost all season, we lost out 5/6 starter (Wright) and have been without our #2 and #3 RP'ers all year. We've dealt with nagging injuries, illnesses, bereavement leaves, and our two best utility guys (Holt & Marco) probably lost for the whole season. Yet, we're currently the top wild card team and just 3 games behind a Yankee team seemingly playing over their heads. I like where we are right now, assuming the injury bug has completed its devastation of our roster. A strong Price and returning ERod, Smith and/or Thornburg should be enough for us to pass the Yanks and keep our distance from other AL East rivals.

Vaz has almost caught Leon in PAs. He's the hot hand right now, but I suspect Leon will get hot again at some point this year. Hopefully, Vaz will not slump too badly, but we all know he can't keep up at a .344 BA all year. Leon (109 PA) .235 4 15 (.284/.392/.677) Vaz (102 PA) .344 0 11 (.373/.458/.831) Leon has had some clutch hits this year and still has more RBIs per PA than Vaz. Vaz has been struggling on defense, so far this year. Hopefully, he can get back to where he was before the injury. I'm happy continuing a 50-50 split, at least until one shows he deserves more time.

I wonder how long it's been since Beni has had a slump like this. Maybe never?

Then, they switch to the "old balls" when the Sox are up to bat.

Yeah, I posted something similar. Only Bogey and Vaz have improved over last year. It kind of reminds me of the arguments that ook place after 2013, when just about everyone had "up years". It's not a common thing for just about everyone to have an up or down season all at the same time. I'm betting we won't see it this year. Here's what I came up with a couple days ago... Only Bogey and Vaz are having better OPS seasons than last year. I don't expect that to continue. 2016>2017 .845>.670 SLeon -.175 .835>.712 Beni -.123 .850>.734 Young -.116 .866>.749 HRam -.115 .897> .809 Betts -.098 .825>.749 Pedey -.076 .835>.763 J.B.Jr -.072 (Note: Papi 1.021 > Moreland .828 is -.193) Do we really expect all these guys to continue having big drop-off years all at the same time? The plusses: .585>.845 Vaz +.340 .802>.845 Bogey +.043 (Note: Shaw .726 to Pablo .718 is just -.008)

I think Beni is going to be fine, but I think it might help to move him down in the line up for a while. Maybe when Pedey comes back, we can drop him to 6 or 7.

Chris Freakin' Sale + David Freakin' Price 2017 World Series Championship (Assuming they both continue being "Freakin' great)

Lots of "ifs" here, but if ERod or Porcello can finish the season pitching like an ace or a top #2, and Price and sale pitch like aces, I'm not sure we'll need a top 6 offense to make a strong run at a ring. Add a productive CSmith or Thronburg, and we could be right up there with the other faves.

The funny thing is, before the two losses to the O's, people seemed optimistic about the direction of the team. Just a puny two game sample size seems to change everything.

Based on how things are going at this point in time, and things can change quickly, I'd make the following moves when these players return (assuming they do return): Pedey > Marrero (maybe Travis) ERod > Workman (Johnson may be called up for a start and replacing Workman, then BJ will be replaced by ERod.) C Smith> Boyer (maybe Abad) Thornburg > Abad (maybe Scott) B Holt> whoever was not sent down when Pedey returned (Marrero or Travis) Hernandez and Wright are out all year, but what's the timetable on Robbie Ross?

I'd guess Marrero or Travis would go down- not the out-of-options Ruledge.

I expected the offense to be worse. However, I still expected top 5 or 6 in runs. I expected slightly better defense: it has been worse. I expected way better pitching. The injuries to Wright, Price and Thornburg is part of the problem, but we should have expected some injuries.

Our .753 catcher OPS places us 10th in MLB. It's over 70 points better than last year. While many figured Leon would never be able to repeat 2016, they failed to account for a probable improvement from Vaz and an easy chance to improve on Hanigan and Holaday's putrid 2016 offense.

This is the time of the year that Betts usually ignites.

I can't say I expected every Sox player to improve, but it wouldn't have surprised me to see Betts improve slightly on 2016....maybe .325 33 120. It's still not too late to see him out hit 2016. Betts had an .800 OPS on May 30th last year. I will say, I expected the aggregate total from Betts, Bogey & JBJ to improve. I expected Beni and a full season from Young to improve on our LF numbers from 2016. I expected our catchers to hit about the same, as we lost Hanigan and Holaday's horrific numbers, and I expected Vaz to improve. I figured the combination of HRam & Pedey could come close to staying the same, but even if they declined some, I figured Pablo/Hernandez/Rutledge would outhit last year's 3B numbers enough to even the vets out. I did not expect Moreland to come close to Papi's output, but I felt a Moreland-Young platoon would give us an OPS of at least .800. (Now that HRam is the permanent DH, Young is squeezed. He's been one of MLB's best hitters vs LHPs over the last 2-3 years combined. I still like this line-up, and I think they will end up doing well this year, but I think I may have underestimated just how good some other teams' offenses are. I live outside of Houston, and the Astros look frightening!

I expected Bogey to improve. Most players continue to improve until they reach age 28 to 31 or so. I also expected Betts and JBJ to improve for the same reasons. Injuries and decline can be an issue for guys like HRam, Pablo & Pedey, and their ages indicate they are not on the upswing, but all are sill within their prime window and could also reasonably be at the age where they could have had a career best season. I am expecting a significant improvement over our first 53 games. There's still more than two-thirds of the season remaining. Warm weather. Plaayers settling in and adjusting to the loss of the "great protector" (Papi). I may be overly optimistic, but I think, based on seasonal trends, age bell curves and despite the recent two game sample size, the fact that our OPS has been over .800 the last 4 weeks- a sign of improvement. (It was under .740 prior to the last 4 weeks.)

Maybe not "career norms" as guys like JBJ and Bogey have career numbers hampered by poor early seasons in their short careers, but expecting some of our hitters to just do as well as 2016 is not a stretch, especially when you look at several hitters on the up side of the bell curve of prime hitting (Betts/Bogey/Beni/Vaz) and others still within their prime years (JBJ, HRam/Pedey/Pablo/Young/Leon). We really have no hitters over 33 years old. There is no reason to expect a massive decline from 2016 to 2017 from the remaining players. The loss of Papi's "protection" can only account for so much.

I never even implied "scorched earth", but top 5 or 6 is very reasonable.