moonslav59

I'd love another Tolle, but we are not in rebuild mode, now, and we have two Tolle's already (Tolle and Early) plus some up and coming pitchers who might make great strides in 2026, like Perales, Witherspoon, Valera, Fajardo, Phillips, Holobetz and maybe a couple more. Now, if we end up trading Tolle and others for Ryan or KMarte and have Tong in his role, then maybe...

To me, signing Bregman or Bichette and no other big offense adds, we could easily be worse on O than in 2025. They just replace the 2025 Bregman and hopefully don't miss the time he missed. The idea that 330 more PAs from Anthony can replace the 330 PAs lost from Devers has some merit, but I see Anthony as the wild card that might put us over the top. We still need to make up for the Devers loss. We did better, last year, but we need to build upon that and not seek a status quo philosophy based on the hope that our younger players will naturally all progress by enough to make up for not only the loss of many key players but to improve on the 2025 baseline skill level. Sure, we lost some players we can view as "addition by subtraction," and every year I make that point, but we always find ways to replace those names with others who do about the same- and so on... In theory, we have to not only replace these guys and their value but add to them: PAs 495 Bregman .821 334 Devers .905 209 Refsnyder .838 119 N Lowe .790 That's about enough PAs for two full timers. Replace them in kind and then plan of the kids' improvement to bring us the plus we need may not be enough, but not replacing these nearly 1200 PAs with high quality players- two of them- is a losing plan. Okay: add Bregman or Bichette and that replaces the 2025 Bregman and Lowe. Now, we need KMarte, Alonso or Schwarber to replace 550 PAs from Devers and Ref. We have to expect some injuries and "off seasons, " too.

That's how I see it.

Casas has nice splits. I agree. I was thinking maybe Vientos at 3B with maybe Mayer playing some 3B vs some RHPs. Again, I do not see Vientos as a solution to our needs on offense, except he has some power. I'm not for this trade. I admit, I don't know much about Tong.

I would include Witherspoon and or Phillips, instead of Harrison or Perales, in MN insisted. I might even give them Valera or Fajardo, and I am super high on both. This window is worth some sacrifices. Without JH spending big money, I might not see a trade like this as being worth it, though. We'll be worse in 2026 with just Gray and Ryan and no help for the offense.

Certainly age decline is real and prevalent. It is not, however, undefeated, as some players do better after age 32. Eventually, age sinks us all. Dwight Evans: 122 OPS+ up to age 31. 139 OPS+ ages 32-37 (It was 143 from ages 35-37!) 131 from age 33 to the end of his career at age 39. It's rare: I get that.

...and not the headliners in the trade. That would be Campbell or Duran.

Agreed. Vientos might not even beat out Casas for the 1B job, nor Mayer for 3B, but we could play Mayer at 2B.

Nope.

I would not give Early or Tolle for those two. Contreras is expensive, but his contract is not really underwater. He turns 33, in a few months. His OPS+ has been 123>138>123. He's a RHB who has averaged 26 HRs per 162 in the last 3 years. He has decent splits. Would STL take Harrison, Perales, DHam/Romero and Sandlin/Mullins? Maybe they'd want Casas.

I'd rather JH just pay to sign a couple bats, but I'm extremely doubtful he even allows one large and long deal, this winter, despite getting out from Devers' 8 years remaining. KMarte makes sense, moneywise, positionally, as a power solution and being a switch hitter. He checks too many boxes to let his age be the reason to say no. I do worry about age-related decline, but that's true for Alonso, Schwarber, Bregman and others, too. Ideally, we sign Alosno & Bregman and trade Campbell, Harrison & Perales for Ryan.

All? Not all by age 35 or 36, but yes most do. fangraphs has this for 33+ year olds. All ages ranking (277 players 300+ PAs) 1. 1.144 Judge 4. .959 Springer (Schwarber is 7th and K Marte 11th)) 16. .869 Freeman 27th .848 Y Diaz 30th .846 Muncy 42nd .824 E Suarez 6 from .755 to .800 (61st to 107th) Better than the mean 10 from .700 to .750 (108th to 181st (about the average) 5 from .680-.700 (182-207th is the top of the bottom 3rd in MLB) 5 below .670 (5 of the worst 54 players in MLB)

That's not how it works. There are exceptions, so it's not "undefeated."

Harrison & Dobbins are ML ready, young starters.

I'd like to see the numbers on players that did better at ages 30-31 than 28-29 and what they did from 32-35 vs those that were already declining from 28-31.

"Tarde" is not PC.

I'm not for this trade.

I think the plan would be for Vientos to move to 1B and Mayer at 2B (Polanco at 2B?)

Tong's value is speculative, and we have plenty of that on our own. Viento has power but is a question mark, going forward.

You can assume all you want. What can you assume from this fWAR progression? 2.7>2.2>0.9>3.3>4.0 (age 28 to 32) That's the Kyle trend.

I might be, but KMarte seems to be handling age pretty well. We need a power bat, and if JH wont pay for one, I'm looking for other ways. Not many power bats up for trade. Granted, there are worries. Nobody seems worried about Schwarber's age.

If we trade for Brandon Lowe, how does his .998 OPS vs the Sox translate? 1.138 at Fenway (.735 at TB)

Some 2B Trade options (age on opening day): Donovan STL ~$5.8M last arb (29 yrs old) LHB 118 OPS+ (116/ 3 yrs w 16 HRs per 162) B Lowe TBR $11.5M/1 remaining (31.5 yrs old) LHB 116 OPS+ (116/3 yrs w 34 HRs per 162) K Marte AZ $91M/5 remaining (32 yrs old) SHB 145 OPS+ (141/ 3 yrs w 35 HRs per 162)

We could see Harrison at AAA, too. It is stacked and deep.

bWAR '25, '24 Ceddane 4.7, 2.8= 7.5 KMarte 4.4, 6.8= 11.8 fWAR Ceddane 3.8, 1.0=4.8 KMarte: 4.6, 6.3=10.9