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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Stanton is owed $29M, $25M and has a $25M option for '28 with a $10M buyout. Essentially, it's $64M/2 or $$79M/3. His tax line is $25M, but MIA is still paying $3M a year for the next 3 seasons. That makes it $55M/2 or $70M/3 and a tax hit of $22M. You think NY would take Yoshida and Fitts for Stanton & $5M a year?
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Just heard the Sox will not face Trevor Rogers in the BAL series. That's good news. -
Uehara also had an incredible post season in 2013. He let up 1 ER (a HR) in 13.2 IP. Only 7 hits allows and ZERO BBs to 16 Ks. Speaking of Ks to BBs, best K%-BB% seasons by Sox RP'ers since 2003: 44.1 Kimbrel '17 34.7 Uehara '13 32.9 Miller '14 30.8 Chapman '25 & Papelbon '07 30.2 Papelbon '11 28.9 Uehara '14 28.8 Barnes '21 28.3 Uehara '16 26.3 Kimbrel '18 26.1 Martin '24 K/BB 16.7 Martin 11.2 Koji '13 10.0 Koji '14 9.6 Papelbon '08 9.0 Tazawa '12 & Kimbrel '17 8.7 Papelbon '11 7.2 Timlin '03 6.4 Slaten '24
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We've has some awesome closer seasons since Foulke in 2004. Koji's has stood alone, and he was arguably the main reason that 2013 outperformed their expectations and production numbers. Here are some of our best closer seasons since 2003: (listed in order by best OPS Against) ERA+/OPS Against... 381/.377 Chapman 2025 (in progress) 379/.400 Koji 2013 254/.444 Kimbrel 2017 257/.463 Papelbon 2007 517/.465 Papelbon 2006 199/.561 Papelbon 2008 194/.562 Uehara 2015 247/.565 Kimbrel 2018 127/ .575 Jansen 2024 (Others had better season than this, but I felt he deserved a mention) 223/.587 Foulke 2004 252/.600 Papelbon 2009 Best RP seasons since 2003 by ERA- (40+ IP) 20 Papelbon '06 24 Martin '23 25 Chapman '25 26 Uehara '13 31 Kimbrel '17 34 Tazawa '12 37 Atchison '12 39 Workman '19 40 Papelbon '09 & '07 43 Whitlock '21 & Breslow '13 44 Delcarmen '07 & Bard '10 46 Foulke '04 48 Okajima '07 & Aceves '11 50 Timlin '05 fWAR 3.2 Kimbrel '17 3.1 Uehara '13 & Papelbon '06 3.0 Papelbon '11 2.8 Papelbon '08 2.1 Workman '19 & Papelbon '07 2.0 Chapman '25 and counting 1.9 Papelbon '09 1.8 Schreiber '22 & Timlin '05 1.6 Whitlock '21 & Foulke '04 1.5 Martin '23, Slaten '24 & Kim '03 1.4 Jansen '24 & Uehara '15 1.3 Barnes '21 & '19, Bard '10 & '11, A Miller '14 and Kimbrel '18 1.2 Barnes '18 & Kimbrel '16 1.1 Okajima '07, Tazawa '12 & 15, Delcarmen '08, Jansen '23, Uehara '14 and Josh Taylor '21 ,
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That $9-10M is the reason the Nats cut ties. It seems like we have been forever trying to guess what level of spending JH will approve, each winter, and if we predict he will allow us to spend up to the first tax line, without going over, then that $9-10M is very significant and would downscale our options. We have Bregman returning or not as a major financial choice. We have to bring Chapman back or pay bigly for another one. We need a solid SP'er, even if Giolito returns. We need pen help and maybe 2B help, along with the Lowe choice at 1B. One obvious decision could be made to solve one of the these problems: trade from our OF excess for a relatively lower cost solution, but do we have the nerve to make two major trades, like this, to fill two major roles? Will making two trades put too much strain on our depth, or force us to count on Jh Garcia, Campbell and or Mayer to win FT roles We also have some recent extensions that will kick in. I agree with all of them, but nevertheless, we added 2026 cost that was not on the books, until recently: $28.3M Crochet $16.3M Anthony $9.2M Bello $7.5M Campbell $6.3M Rafaela The tax hit on Hicks is $10.3M and Duran has an $8M option or arb. Gio's 140 IP option trigger or not could add a lot of salary or create another rotation hole. Before the year started, and even more so, after the Devers salary dump trade, our budget outlook was pretty good. Now, it's kinda tight. OPEN UP THE WALLET JH!!!! Spending to the 2nd line should be enough. Spending up to the first line might not be, unless we make two big trades that include some highly ranked prospects and young core players like Duran or Abreu plus maybe Campbell, Arias, Tolle or several prospects ranked 3-12, mostly pitchers.
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I do worry about Buehler's first inning numbers (OPSA over 1.000) and first 25 pitches (.900.) How will that translate to a pen role? That being said, I'm hopeful he can fill a role the Sox badly need: a 2-3+ inning RP'er. We've gotten by with 3-4 and sometimes 5 RP'ers doing well enough, but deepening the pen has been a high need area. The pen is ranked very high, but Chapman and Whitlock have been so great, the numbers hide how mediocre and poor the rest of the pen has been. Adding Matz has worked well. Let's hope adding Buehler will seal the deal. Who the 5th starter will be matters, too. He or they will likely get 5 starts. Being +4 in the WC race means those 5 starts could make or break our chances. If we reach the playoffs, normally 3 pitchers get att but 1-3 starts, depending on how deep the team goes. Our pen, today is: Chapman & Whitlock Weissert & Matz Wilson & Bernardino Buehler & Hicks (Fitts is on the 26, so maybe he will be the SP5.) Slaten may be ready, soon, so a tough choice will need to be made. The obvious two most struggling pitchers are Hicks and Wilson, but both have no options, and I'm pretty sure they want to keep Hicks in the 2026 plans. One going to the IL would bridge us to Sept roster expansion time, but I'm not sure that will happen. More likely, we will demote Fitts, then call up Harrison once a start is needed, but then who goes down, then? We have no days off, until past Sept 1st, and I do not see pitching our starters on 3 days rest as an option. Someone has to go. (Bernardino has been too good to demote, again, IMO, but that is what will probably happen, IMO.)
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Question of the week: can the Sox hold off the Yankees?
moonslav59 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
It's pretty easy to see the Yanks and other AL teams have some serious flaws, too. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Well, we passed the Yanks, again. Maybe we can hold on, this time. We still have a shot at the ALE and are 5 GB TOR. We play them in SEPT. The WC race is close: 70-59 BOS 69-59 NYY 69-60 SEA _____ 66-63 KCR -3.0 (-4 from BOS) 64-63 CLE -4.0 -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We've used 31 pitchers, including Toro and Eaton, and another 8 or 9 guys are either gone or out for the year with an injury. Here are the OPS Against numbers for those who may still pitch, this season for the Sox: .384 Chapman is an absurd number (.192 OBP and SLG) He's let up 5 XBHs in 182 PAs Against! .465 Slaten has been sorely missed. (3 XBHs allowed in 90 PAS) .479 Matz in just 31 PAs Against, but still... .530 Guerrero in 72- not sure if he'll be back. .556 Whitlock in 242 (most PAs Against by a RP) .558 Bernardino in 194- welcome back Brennan! .606 Crochet in 637- excellent for a SP'er! .614 Murphy in 89- still walking a ton of batters in AAA. .651 Weissert in 224- underappreciated season. .680 Bello in 539- nice improvement, this year. (.724 in '24) .711 Wilson- heading downwards. .714 Giolito in 466- not too bad! .721 D May (71)- nice get by Brez, so far. .787 Fitts (177)- gotta do better to stay around. .788 Kelly (103)- not sure he gets another '25 look. .797 Hicks (75)- thought it would be worse. .809 Criswell (80) .773 as a SP .823 Buehler (498)- may be losing his spot. .974 I Campbell- may be done for 2025. When Slaten returns, does Fitts get demoted?

