moonslav59

I was upbeat with Ben while you seemed to be miserable. I'm super upbeat about this team, especially since we obtained... Chris Freakin Sale! I am not optimistic about our team from 2021 to 2022. I'd hardly call that fatalistic or miserable, but I guess people with a long-standing miserable outlook might project it on others while pretending to be optimistic. (Note: this is not directed at you- just at the many miserable fans out there.)

The Cubs were a 103 win team- not 100. LOL

You said I was miserable and then said it wasn't directed at me. Even if your first post wasn't directed at me, your second clearly was, and that was the one that used the word "miserable". You acted like you knew my feelings then said you do not pretend to know people's feelings.

3 years of JBJ for 2 years of Abreu would likely get us Yollmer, too. I'm just thinking why not just sign JD, Santana and Shaw and trade JBJ for a SP'er (Carrasco at $26.5M/3 with 2 options counted?). C: Vaz 1B: Santana 2B: H Kendrick>Pedey 3B: Devers SS: Bogey LF: Martinez CF: Beni RF: Betts DH: HRam>Pedey SP: Sale, Price, Sale, Pom, Carrasco, Porcello, Wright RP: Kimbrel, Shaw, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Scott, Workman, Maddox>Thornburg

I'm sure DD would rather keep JBJ in CF and Beni in RF, but if we acquire Stanton of JD Martinez, then trading JBJ for a SP'er might make sense. I'm not high on Hosmer at all. He's not the answer at clean-up. He's not a plus fielder anymore. He'll want and get 5+ years. That's too many years to commit to a marginal 1Bman- a position of usual strength and power in MLB. I get the trepidation on Moustakas. I get not wanting to further deplete the farm to get Stanton. I get how signing JD Martinez to 6 years, at his age, and hurting our fine OF defense or benching HRam, so he can play DH is not ideal either. I'm wondering, if trying to go the shortest terms possible while still getting impact-ful talent might be the way to go. 1B Santana for 3 years RP Bryan Shaw for 3 years 2B Kendrick for 1 year then maybe help at DH (Duda) or a mid-level SP'er (Lynn/Holland). I'm not sure if this is enough, but there's less risk of a 4-5 year bust.

It wasn't directed at you, so don't make it about you. I don't pretend to know what you think. Well you answered my reply post back by telling me to "go on being miserable." It's hard to not read that as being directed right at me. Even if it was not at me, you are pretending to know how others feel. Sure, there is a certain poster who is seems completely down on DD, but that's hardly reason to respond as if there's a whole "army" of "completely negative" naysayers. I am just identifying what I interpret as a negative outlook by many people. This cliff was being identified as we were rebuilding into a competitor. The warnings started with the acquisition of Kimbrel and exacerbated with the acquisition of Sale. I enjoyed the heck out of watching those guys pitch this year annihilating opposing hitters. While they pitched, I was never concerned about impending cliffs although I might have thought that it will be great to watch these guys pitch for another couple of years. I think that fearing a cliff is an unduly alarmist outlook. Maybe I am just not as forward thinking as you are, or maybe you aren't forward thinking enough. It would be more positive if you looked further into the future to anticipate the success of our next rebuild. That way or wording it sounds more reasonable. At least you hint at there being some sort of "rebuild" needed as these vets' contracts expire. Look, I realize it is just about all conjecture. We could end up doing better than expected with the prospects we have right now. They could exceed expectations. We might finally get our first true top of rotation pitcher from our system since Lester. Maybe Chavis hits 30 HRs in MLB in 2020. I disliked several of DD's deals, but I also disliked many of Ben's moves, especially the big FA signinngs. (I even hated the Vic signing day one.) I'm not down on DD, but I do feel he chose to sacrifice some our future for the 3-4 year window. Whether saying it's a "cliff" proves to be hyperbole or not remains to be seen, but I'm thinking we should be a top ring-contender over the next 2-3 years, assuming we obtain a top power-hitting clean up hitter this winter. That makes being a .500 team in 2021 look like a cliff to me. I don't foresee the "rebuild" as being long and drawn out, since we should still remain a top budget team. Certainly, 2021 to 2022 can look like 2014-2015, especially if DD whiffs on a couple of FA signings like Ben did with HRam and Pablo. DD is going to need Price doing well as he reaches the mid 30's. Too many "ifs" to remain so optimistic, in my book.

Stop pretending you know how others feel. I'm far from miserable. I'm very happy about the team. I'm not a DD basher. I'm far from calling for his removal. That doesn't mean I have to deny the facts. BTW, I wasn't miserable after finishing in last place in 2015. It sucked, and I wasn't happy about 2014-2015, but I was very optimistic about our near and extended future. I did not see a continuing decline. It seems you were the miserable one, but I won't claim to know your past feelings. Let's see how miserable you are in 3 years. I could be wrong, but my guess is, you will be front and center on the dump DD bandwagon. I don't see us finishing in last place when the "cliff" comes, but it is going to be very very difficult to be competitive when all our young stars hit free agency in a 2 year window with a much weaker farm to rely on for help. that's not a miserable outlook. It's a realistic one. Sure, it's relying on a lot of speculation and conjecture, but I'm just not seeing a major influx of top quality help from our farm in 3 years. I guess, we could bring our budget to $250M or more, but I'll believe it when I see it.

It gets hard to stay competitive, when you have to sign free agents to replace arb guys making $10-20M but producing like $25-35M players. When you have little on the farm to provide a continuous low cost -high productivity infusion, you back yourself in a hole. I like our recent drafts and international signings. I have hopes enough can and will fill some key openings, so we can reduce our dependency on big free agent signings, but clearly we have much less to choose from now than we did 1-2 years ago. That has to make a difference 2-3 years from now and extending far beyond. Denying all this, to me, is being overly optimistic.

Yeah, I hate success. That must be it. We traded away dozens of prospects to create a team that won the division 2 years in a row. Keep your head in blissful sand. Our future is bright. Being concerned is folly. Being realistic is "complete" negativity.

The main reason I prefer Moose over Hoze is power. The defense is just an added bonus. 3B defense is more important than 1B defense, so even if you think Hoze is a decent defensive 1Bman, having Devers at 3B instead of Moose is accepting a horrible left side infield defense. With Pedey out and Hoze at 1B, our infield entire defense could be near the bottom of the heap. I'm not sure our plus catcher and OF defense can make up the difference.

That's the big debate. How much do you try for continued balance? How much do we give up on some of the future, when you feel you are close but not close enough to win a ring right now? I can see both sides of the argument as having merit, and I'm happy we at least built for a 3-4 year window, instead of a 1-2 year window like some plans end up being. I love competing every year, but I also come from the era that witnessed countless heart breaks of having great teams but just not great enough to win a ring. I remember thinking and saying, "Just give me one ring, and I'll take 10 last place finishes!" Of course, once we won one ring, I did not wish for 10 last place finishes. When we won our second ring in 2007, I got spoiled. Winning rungs is better than coming close but falling short 10 years in a row. I'd love to strike a balance, and I'm willing to have a couple losing seasons, if it means we are working towards being very highly competitive afterwards, and I truly believe Ben & Co. we moving us in the direction. I'd have preferred to let the 5 year plan play out, but now that we've changed the focus to a 3-4 year window, I'm not for changing the plan again and coming up short on both fronts. I hope we go for broke this winter without sacrificing some more of the future. I'm not sure that doable.

Well, if it's true that Larry was behind the Dodger dump trade (as well as the Schilling and Beckett trades), then maybe it wasn't as much of a "problem" as we sometimes try to make it out to be. I'm just tired of the mix and match criticism. I'm not much into the blame game, but when we do, we should either blame the GM for everything or just look at every move as an organizational decision and blame the whole FO not the GM. One or the other. (I'm not saying you do this, Kimmi.)

If we end up getting Stanton or JD to play LF, my hope is we get a decent pitcher for JBJ. We may have to add more to the package, but I can't see us trading JBJ for a 1Bman or RP'er or 2Bman.

Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 We have too many holes to fill them all with high quality players. We have no clean-up hitter. We have no 1Bman. We have a banged up DH. We have a poor fielding 3Bman that might be better at 1B. We need a RP'er. We have ERod starting 2018 on the 60 man DL and Wright as our best hope as the #5. I'm not thrilled with our 4 guys who can play 2B, but at least we have 4 to choose from. I'll choose Hernandez/Holt/Lin/Marrero at 2B over Travis at 1B/Clean-up. I'll choose Hernandez, so we can sign a 4th OF'er or RP'er or SP'er. Sure, if Henry opens his wallet really wide, we can add a quality 2Bman, too, but to me 2B depth is not a top 3 or 4 priority this winter. It might be our #5 priority. I guess I might not argue to much, if someone says it's our #4 priority, but to me we have 3 clear needs ahead of 2B, and it's easier to find a Nunez mid season than a Martinez, Moustakas, Santana, Bryan Shaw or quality mid rotation starter. Kimmi's response: I don't think that we have 'too many holes' to fill. Again, I think our team looks pretty good as is. Maybe all of the holes I listed above are not urgent, but I do not think I'm inventing concerns. I am surprised that no one seems to be concerned with the potential health of our starting rotation. Look above. I placed our need for a SP'er as higher than our need for a 2Bman. It is a priority, even if just to add depth in the shape of 5/6 starters. If our rotation is healthy, they should be one of the top rotations in baseball. If ERod does not bounce back from his surgery as quickly or as strongly as expected, and/or if Price has significant elbow issues again, then that paints a whole different light on our rotation. After this past season, I do not have a lot of confidence in Price making it through next season without spending a lot of time on the DL. I can see us signing a new Fister type of two and hoping they carry us until ERod returns. If he doesn't, we'll look for a starter at the deadline. I would look for a #2/3 type pitcher on a relatively short contract (easier said than done, I know), and sign JD Martinez, and call it a day outside of tweaks to the pen and the bench. In both cases of the pitcher and JD, I would offer more money per year to get fewer years. I'd be fine with that. I might try to add Bryan Shaw and look to trade the likes of Hembree, Swihart and Johnson for a better 6th starter. Honestly, if Dombrowski did nothing this offseason, I would expect the Sox to be back in the playoffs. Agreed, but as a wild card with worse odds at winning it all than we had this year. The window will be closing soon. I think DD is going to look for ways to make us top 3-4 favorites. I hope our farm does not suffer as a result, and we can fill our needs through free agency, but I'm not sure what sort of spending budget Henry is giving DD this winter.

He's too bad to hope for substantial improvement "on the job" during a run for a ring season or two. If we can get a great 1Bman, I'm fine with poor left side IF defense, but I don't see and great FA first basemen. Think of how great Devers did for us on offense this year in 58 games. If we projected him to 145 games, his WAR would have only been 2.4 due mostly to his -12.7 UZR/150. Now, 2.4 is a massive improvement over Pablito & Co., but if we have a chance to use his skills in a better way, and we have a strong sense of immediate urgency while "the window" remains oipen, I'm not sure we can fiddle around hoping Devers miraculously jumps to average defense over one winter. The Sox organization has been working overtime on his defense for years. I think it is unrealistic to think he'll be even okay next year on defense.

I realize Moose is very risky, but I'd rather have his defense at 3B than Devers. Then, when you look at Hosmer as "the other option", the defense looks horrible: Devers at 3B and this at 1B? D. R. S. : -12 UXR/150: -42.3 (OUCH!!!!) Moose: D. R. S.: -3 UXR/150: + 5.3 Yes, 2017 might be an outlier for Moose, but look at Hosmer's 2017. better yet, throw out 2017 and look at 2015-2016: WAR 4,4 Moose (in almost half the PAs!) 3.3 Hoze wRC+ 121 Moose 113 Hoze OPS .815 Moose .792 Hoze (By the way, .815 would have led the Sox in OPS this year.) BAbip .281 Moose .319 Hoze The area Moose falls short in vs Hoze: OBP .346 Hoze .340 Moose Maybe 2017 was an outlier for Moose, but he still compares favorably to Moose in the previous two years. Plus, we need power. 2015-2016 ISO: .198 Moose .164 Hoze I'll take Moose over Hoze anyday and everyday. Our defense improves greatly at 3B and gets slightly worse at 1B. (If HRam can play 1B and Devers DH, then our defense is greatly improved over adding Hoze.) The offense is better, especially if you factor power as more important. The cost per year will be cheaper. The years should be shorter. Moose over Hoze is a no-brainer to me, although these two are not the only two choices. Santana or JD are other options, but they have some downsides as well.

"...did not look that great" is an understatement. Devers needs a lot of improvement... A LOT! I seriously doubt he can improve as quickly as we hope or need. Like I said, I'm fine with leaving him at 3B as long as we fill our biggest needs in other ways. To me, we are in a bind. JD Martinez fills the clean-up slot better than any other FA, but he's an OF'er/DH. Hosmer looks like the "obvious" get, but he's been up and down on offense and now has massive negative UZR/150's and DRS's. The projected years and money scare the hell out of me. He's my last choice, since he's not really the clean-up hitter type. That leaves Moustakas as plan A or B barring any trade options. trades will just create new holes or further deplete our already fragile farm system. If we're willing to kick HRam to the curb, and pay him to ride the bench or play elsewhere, then signing JD, Shaw and Santana would be a a way to make us very strong contenders for the next 2-3 years. All have massive risk, but I do think DD will have a large spending budget this winter.

For those who do not like Mostakas, because you want to wait for Machado next year, how's this? Sign Machado next year and move Moustakas to 1B and Devers to DH.

Is Cozart a better choice than Santana, if the QO penalty for Carlos is in place? MLBTR projects: $45M/3 Santana $42M/3 Cozart (move Bogey to 3B and devers to 1B? I know, that's a lot of moves for a marginal star.)

Their saying Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain for the Royals.

Hmmm. He drops on my list, if he does. MLBTR has him getting $45M/3, so it makes sense he'd get a QO. Close call.

Low level prospects are often valued highly by GMs with long plans. Espi was not the first low level prospect to be traded for something good. I realize Groome is no Espi, I admit, but to claim he has little to no value is a stretch. The 19 year old was still ranked 87th at mid season by BA. Yes, Espi got up to #15 mid season 2016 at age 15 with the Padres.

We have too many holes to fill them all with high quality players. We have no clean-up hitter. We have no 1Bman. We have a banged up DH. We have a poor fielding 3Bman that might be better at 1B. We need a RP'er. We have ERod starting 2018 on the 60 man DL and Wright as our best hope as the #5. I'm not thrilled with our 4 guys who can play 2B, but at least we have 4 to choose from. I'll choose Hernandez/Holt/Lin/Marrero at 2B over Travis at 1B/Clean-up. I'll choose Hernandez, so we can sign a 4th OF'er or RP'er or SP'er. Sure, if Henry opens his wallet really wide, we can add a quality 2Bman, too, but to me 2B depth is not a top 3 or 4 priority this winter. It might be our #5 priority. I guess I might not argue to much, if someone says it's our #4 priority, but to me we have 3 clear needs ahead of 2B, and it's easier to find a Nunez mid season than a Martinez, Moustakas, Santana, Bryan Shaw or quality mid rotation starter.

JD Martinez is a power bat, but without a real home defensively, unless he could play outfield (a real ?). Replacing JBJs 20 HR with 38 and with a higher OPS sounds good for the offense. JD in LF and Beni in CF really hurts our OF defense, but the upgrade in offense would be tremendous. Then, we get something for JBJ (#3 SP'er or 1Bman?)

I don't think we help at 2B. We have Hernandez, Holt, Lin & Marrero. Pedey may come back at some point and make the acquisition a bench warmer. We don't have that kind of money to spend on someone destined to be on the bench. Our top priorities will likely take up all the money. 1. Clean-up power hitter (1B?) 2. 1B or DH (if HRam can play 1B and #1 is not a 1Bman. 3. 4th OF'er 4. RP 5. SP, if possible 6. 2B