moonslav59

Agreed, but if there's a way to fix other issues, we might as well consider them.

Who is pretending that? DD built this team for a cycle not for an extended balance run. It's obvious we will be much better in the next two years than year 4 to 5 or maybe even 3-4. We didn't buy our way to contention in 2014 and 2015, but that doesn't mean we're "mid tier". We were a top spending team as will be in 2020 and 2021. That isn't always enough to win as 2012, 2014 and 2015 showed us. It is not a freak occurrence that almost all our major players reach free agency in a 2-3 year window. It was planned. Unless we spend $250M, we are not keeping everybody or replacing some IN KIND through free agency. Unless you think we spend $250M and/or Travis, Ockimey and Chavis will come to the rescue, we're going to hit a cliff, or at least a very steep hill. It's not an automatic slam dunk, and I guess you guys can cling to that sliver of hope that lower ranked prospects than the ones we traded away are going to come through for us, and/or we'll never swing and miss on bi FA signings again. This is not meant to sound like "gloom and doom". I doubt we finish in last place in 2020 or 2021, but it will be close to impossible to be a top contender without spending $250M (plus taxes) and having some prospects come through in big ways.

LOL. Just saying, there's no gloom or misery in my thoughts about the Sox. I'm fine with going all out to win, and just because I'm not in denial about our future, it doesn't mean I'm miserable. I'm actually an optimist at heart, and I'm hoping my view on what is realistic is wrong. I liked our recent draft and international signings. I'm not sure if any can help in 2020 or 2021, but they look to be helpful after 2021 or in trade.

I think we can overcome the "growing pains" of Devers on defense next year, if we acquire a couple of big bats: JD or Stanton plus Santana or Moustakas, but if not his growing curve could seriously damage our ring hopes. (I'm not for sending Devers to AAA. I'd DH him while he works out at 3B in practice everyday.)

I'll puke, if that happens. Literally vomit.

That site also had us signing Morrison, which forces HRam to DH.

I loved Moncada, AND I really loved the Sale trade. By mentioning who might be starting for the Sox next year as a reply to Nick's call out, I in no way was implying I wanted Moncada or Kopech back for Sale.

Again, but then we don't have Sale and we don't win last year. We didn't win last year or this year. We also don't have Kimbrel. We also don't have Pom. Again, I've never been against trading prospects. I'm just not for trading 4 for a RP'er making near FA market money at the time of the trade. I loved the Sale trade, and I wish we had kept the prospects we traded for Kimbrel & Pom to get Quintana- someone under control for 3 more years. (BTW, Pom and Kimbrel did not do all that great in 2016's division winning season, especially Pom.) What would our 25 man roster look like? Sale, Kimbrel, Pom combined cost us $40M. I suppose we could buy couple of good players with that money. c no change 1B Shaw 2B Moncada SS Xander 3B Devers LF Beni CF Bradley Jr RF Betts SP Price SP Porcello SP E Rod SP Wright SP Johnson I suppose if we were willing not to win the Division last two years, then 2018 could have been better. It's Henry's fault for hiring DD. Kimmi may have the right idea. Stand pat and let contracts for Hanley, Sadoval and Porcello expire. Use that money to extend Betts and Sale. So, Kimbrel, Pom and Bogey go? Where are we then? All are up before or at the same time those two come up for re-signing. I'm not going to play the hindsight game and bash DD for the Shaw or Sale trades. I liked them both. I did not like the Pom & Kimbrel deals, but I knew both would help us now and for some of the "window". Nobody is disputing the fact that DD made us better than we would have been "NOW". The dispute is "at what cost" to the future.

He may miss all of 2018 and return as a DH. He may fight his way back, and I think he will. Either way, Moncada would start for us next year at 2B and/or DH and be our DH in 2019 and beyond. Would you rather have Holt?

Margot was expendable, but he just turned 23 and has 5 more years of team control. That runs far beyond the "window." There's also still a good chance someone from the others (Espi, Dubon, Basabe, Allen, Asuaje and more) will end up being meaningful contributors at the ML level.

Teams willing to consistently outspend the cap don't have a cliff. By the sounds of it, many here viewed Ben's tenure as a 4 year canyon full of cliffs... yet we remained a top spending team all 4 years. It can happen.

You asked who would start. Pedey is out- maybe for the whole year. Clearly Moncada would be a better choice than Holt or Hernandez. Dubon might give both a run for their money, too. If we did not trade Kopech for sale, Kopech would be looking to win one of two slots opened by ERod's injury and the theoretical take back of the trade for Sale. Margot would not beat out JBJ, but he'd be a better choice than HRam at DH, and we really need a 4th OF'er. He could easily get 550+ PAs for the Sox next year If we took back all the trades, we'd have Shaw at 1B, Moncada or Dubon at 2B, Margot at DH/4th OF and Kopech as a strong candidate for 5th starter. Many of these kids were not expected to be significant ML player in 2018, but they probably would have been had we kept them. (BTW, I wasn't even for keeping them all. Kimmi has stated she felt ben would have made a big deal, too- just not 4.)

To me , the talk of an impending cliff is not only a failure to enjoy the moment , but a misplaced case of Cherington nostalgia. 100% wrong on so many fronts, it would take me pages to explain.

Next year is year 2 of the 3-4 year window. When they were traded, just about all of the guys we traded were not expected to be in significant factors in MLB by next year, except maybe Moncada & Margot. That being said, Moncada would probably start at 2B this year, and Margot would be a solid 4th Of'er and starting DH until HRam is back, assuming no signings or further trades. Maybe Dubon could win the 2B job next spring. Many want us to sign JD or trade for Stanton- both OF'ers. Others want us to trade or sign a 2Bman this winter. The point is, nobody expected help from these guys in 2017. Even Devers came up faster than expected. Kopech might be getting close. Espi and Basabe and others were always viewed as farther away. .

Agreed, but we did have a surplus and not enough roster slots for all of them. We should have made one or maybe two big deals but not 3 going on 4.

Other than starting pitching prospects, our highest ranked players have done pretty well developing into impactful players. There was a bad stretch from about 2008-2011, but I'd say our farm has done well. Other teams must agree, since they have traded some good players for many of them.

I see it differently. I see a big black cloud of rose-colored glasses wearing fans in denial hanging over Kimmi and me.

I can't prove even one from Moncada, Kopech, Espinoza, Margot, Dubon, Basabe or others will ever be any good, so there's nothing to be concerned over. Let's just trade the rest of the farm now, since any prospect can be plugged in to replace high ranked one and end up being great. Love the logic. They bash us for thinking top prospects might actually amount to something then ask us to have faith that our current lower ranked prospects will save the day in 3 years. Makes sense, right? NOT!

Oh, we can keep quite a few of these guys, but the budget will be so high that we will need a lot of infusion of young talent from the farm to fill out the rest of the roster with better than replacement level players..

Our 2020-2022 years would look better, if we still had Moncada, Kopech, Margot, Espinoza, Dubon, Basabe and others. Of course, our present would look worse. It boggles my mind, which is not the same as being miserable, that you can not see that taking that amount of top young talent out of the system is not going to have a big influence 2-7 years down the road. I'm fine with arguing how much that might be, and if it's enough to project a cliff or not, but "many fans", as you like to say are in denial about the cost to the future these trades created. I loved the sale trade. I'm far from miserable. I believe ben would have made a trade or two like that one. You seem to choose to believe Ben was never going to make a trade. Neither can prove our beliefs, and I'm fine with giving up on that sort of speculation, but I think there is evidence enough to show there is a very distinct possibility that all these trades will adversely (I feel by a great factor) affect the team from 2020 or 2021 and onwards. The chances all those guys or even all but one fail are astronomical. Kimbrel, Pom and Sale will be long gone, and if we resign them, one can argue we could have signed them as FAs and still had our prospects to keep or trade for others. The Kimbrel and Pom trades look very good right now. I liked both players when we made the trades, and both have certainly lived up to their expectations, but their years of team control are limited. Sale is a different story. He's an ace making dirt for pay. I loved that trade, but even that one will very likely have future consequences.

You can bet GMs think about it all the time. I'm not hung up on what the Sox will look like in 2-4 years. I'm not "miserable" over it either. There are "benefits" to planning for the future, and that entails actually thinking about it and planning accordingly. I don;t think DD has done enough to plan for that post window period. I don't need a personal benefit to give me reason to think about it. I'm perfectly capable of really enjoying the present while having concerns about the future. It's not an either/or situation. You guys act like you enjoy the games more because you choose not to worry about the future. I don't see it that way.

I just threw his name out there. There is probably someone more dependable. I'm actually okay with Hernandez/Lin/marrero/Holt, as long as we fill our 2 of our other high need areas with top quality players.

Is this a possibility? Sign JD Martinez (LF)- move Beni to CF. Trade JBJ, Travis and Hembree for Carrasco Sign Santana (1B) Sign Bryan Shaw (RP) 1. Bogey SS 2, Betts RF 3. Beni CF 4. Martinez LF 5. Santana 1B 6. Devers 3B 7. HRam DH 8. Hernandez>Pedey 2B 9. Vaz Bench: Leon, Lin, Brentz & Holt (Swihart, Marrero) SP: Sale, Price, Pom, Carrasco, Porcello, Wright/Johnson (Velazquez/Elias/Beeks/Haley) RP: Kimbrel, Shaw, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Maddox, Workman/Scott/Thornburg (Taylor/Martin)

It's not about age: it's about years of team control. It's about higher and higher arb costs and the high cost or replacing or keeping most of our young stars and vets before or when they become free agents. We have a lot of our key players reaching free agency or high arb salaries in a very narrow time frame. Without a stocked farm, the cost is going to be enormous to keep our stars or replace them "in kind". We like to point at losing HRam's contract in 2019 or 2020 and Pablo's in 2020 ($5M buyout in 2021) as being enough to keep us strong, but I doubt it. Look how hard it is to sign free agents this winter, and we haven't even lost anyone of great value to free agency. Players reaching free agency: After 2018: Pomeranz Kimbrel Kelly (Maybe HRam) After 2019: Sale Bogey Holt & Thornburg After 2020: Betts JBJ Vazquez Leon Smith Workman Wright (Note: last arb year will be more costly than the year before.) There's not a lot of dead weight lost here. Almost all will cost way more to keep or replace in kind than they will in their final year here. 2021 Price $31M Pedey $13.75M Assuming a $210-220M budget, who can and should we keep with the $150M left over after the two we have locked up? Also, Beni & ERod will be in their last arb year and Devers will be arb eligible, so they will eat some of that $150M. My priorities look about like this at this moment in time: Betts Sale JBJ Pom or the like Bogey or the like Kimbrel or the like Vazquez The ones we don't keep, what prospect takes their places?

Moose is light years ahead of Devers on defense for 2018 and probably 2019 as well. He is NOT a great defender right now.