moonslav59

Santana will cost significantly less than Hosmer and may outperform him. That's a "bargain". He never said anything about his choices signing minor league contracts or minimum ML contracts. His article seems to be for entertainment and as a discussion generator, but I'm just giving my opinion on his motives.

His biggest problem is his 2 herniated back discs. (My guess is that the reduced bat speed is related to his messed up back.)

Moreland had a slump about as long as Duda's but much worse. The two weeks before his .435 OPS month of July, he went 9 for 51 (.176) with just 1 BB (.192 OBP). Now that's brutal compared to a .702 and .622 OPS for the months of August and September by Duda.

Did your Met fan feed you this, too? LOL

If .702 is "brutal", what's .435 (Moreland's worst month this season)? .435 even makes Duda's .622 September look like MVP material. Glad to see you can at least admit a mistake. Now, you may want to modify your 2 month staement further, since Duda started off August with a nice first week. Aug1 to Aug7: 6 for 19 with 2 BB (.316 BA/.381 OBP), so basically, now we're down to a 1 and 3/4 month "brutal slump". That's about 70% of your 2.5 month claim. His Aug 1 to Aug 10 OBP was .370. His numbers from Aug 1 to Aug 17th: .333 OBP One could argue it was less than a 1.5 month slump, but yes, it was a significant slump. Most players have a few.

Keep talking to your Met fan for your brilliant insights. You have been proven wrong too many times to count. It must be why you hate data so much. The numbers show Duda brings much more to the table than HRs. He blows Moreland away in OBP, which will far outweigh the defensive upgrade. BTW, Moreland is slower than Duda (not that it matter much for 1Bmen). 2014-2017 BsR index -5.0 Duda (12th out of 31 1Bmen with 1500+ PAs) -7.4 Moreland (19th/31)

Which I mentioned, although I'm not sure I'd call a .702 August "brutal", and the extra half month you added is just plain false. He ended July going 5 for 15 with 4 Hrs. From July 14th to July 31st, he went 17 for 58 (.293 BA/.369 OBP) with 7 BBs and 6 HRs. If that's a "slump" sign me up for 12 half month slumps like that!!! Do you just make this stuff up, or am I missing the "context" or "misunderstanding" your positions again? He also had a very steady and great 4, which is more than any Sox player can claim to have done this year. I've seen much worse than his .622 September as well, but clearly he slumped to end the 2017 season. That is worrisome to say the least, but we're talkinga bout a $6M/1 year risk. When you compare the risk involved with signing Hosmer (someone who has a zero to negaive fWAR in half of his last 6 seasons) or one-year wonder Morrison, or even $60M/4 for Sanatana, the risk seems minimal.

I understand this post very well.

Here's a critique of Hosmer's strengths (which are actually medioce) and weaknesses... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/free-agent-profile-eric-hosmer.html

That's the point. he's trying to project which dumpster dive or low cost signing will do the best next year. It's not an easy task. It might be a useless endeavor, but there's not much else to talk about this time of year.

You claimed an HRam platoon is not a good choice. Seems you are having the same "understanding" issues we have when trying to figure out you positions.

So you agree that he brings nothing to the table during his power outages that a replacement level player would not bring? No. You forgot OBP, which is a huge factor in run scoring for a team. ... I just see no overall upside in Duda. A .338 OBP is way better than replacement level. Plus, I dispute your claim that Duda's Hrs come in bunches more than other power hitters with 25+ HR power. JD Martinez had 17 Hrs in SEPT and over half his Hrs in the last 2 months of 2017. Duda's Hrs were bunched in 2015, but not so much in 2014 or 2017.

Forget the HRs. Let's look at OPS by month: (Only months with 60+ PAs are shown) Duda: 2014: .773> .709>.956>1.006>.708>.841 2015: .915>.948>.576>.749>.976>.961 2016: .743>.704 (Injured) 2017: .931>.927>.896>.901>.702>.622 (Just 2 months out of 20 below .702.) (6 months below .740.) (11 months above .840) Moreland: 2014: .710>.656 (Injured) 2015: .849>.839>.998>.643>.719>.794 2016: .700>.799>.700>.799>.874>.689 2017: .837>.853>.762> .435>1.061>.667 (5 out of 20 months below .702) (8 months below .740) (4 months above .840) OBP Duda: 2014: .333>.319>.380>.396>.291>381 2015: .427>.366>.312>.260>.389>.386 2016: .294>.300 (injury) 2017: .360>.378>.352>.333>.302>.230 Moreland: 2014: .307>.302 (injury) 2015: .393>.310>.362>.282>.330>.315 2016: .292>.320>.293>.320>.341>.290 2017: .360>.388>.300>.264>.390>.260 Putting them side by side from worst to best... Duda/ Moreland .230 .260 .260 .264 .291 .282 .294 .290 .300 .292 .302 .293 .312 .300 .319 .302 .333 .307 .333 .310 .352 .315 .360 .320 .366 .320 .378 .330 .380 .341 .381 .360 .386 .362 .389 .388 .396 .390 .427 .393 (Pretty close in the bottom 8 and top 4, but the middle 8 shows a significant differential between Moreland and Duda. This is OBP, not power or OPS.) If I posted Morrison's ups and downs, you'd see so many lows you'd take the risk on Duda's hips on a one year deal..

He's slow. He can't throw the ball-- similar to Hanley in that regard, and he has chronic injuries. You keep glossing over that one, because it is hard to find a stat for it. I have not glossed over any of your points. I spoke to every one of them. He is an average runner when compared to other 1Bmen. He's close to an average defender when compared to any other 1Bman, and besides, he will be DH'ing for some of the time. He has 2 bad hips, not one. Last spring training he needed shots in both hips to get him back on the field and a bad back. I am not a doctor, but these are usually degenerative situations that can cost lots of playing time. This is the most worrisome part of signing him and probably the major reason he is projected to only get a one or two year deal at just $6M or so. My biggest reason for suggesting Duda as a possible complimentary piece this winter is the fact that the risk is just one to two years and just $6M or so. That's about what we "risked" on Young and Moreland. As for his speed, he is below average even for a first baseman, but probably not by much. That is not a strawman. I am just pointing out that he doesn't bring speed or good fielding to the table. I've agreed he's about average on defense and base running. You can tolerate hitting slumps more if the guy has a plus glove. And speed is an element that helps run production when you are getting on base during a HR drought. When he is not hitting HRs, his run production is substandard. Speed is something very few 1Bmen bring to the table, at least to the point where it is a game-changer. His defense is average. His hitting slumps were only out of the ordinary for one of the last 3 full seasons, and even then, it was a HR slumps not a hitting or on base slumps.

That's a fair argument. I'm sure HRam would go ape s***, if he only played vs LH'd starters and maybe 20-30 RH'd starters. This is assuming no injuries to any OF'er, DH or 1Bman.

I actually gave more context to that stat in an earlier post. You claimed that during the only season Duda's HRs were bunched (3 years ago) highly influenced by his high BB rate. You claimed when Duda was not hitting HRs, he did little to help his team. You claimed his OBP was fueled only by his high BB rate. Talk about lack of context. I offered clear evidence that during his longest stretch (41 games) of few HRs back in 2015, he hit .295 with a .388 OBP. 1) He was helping his team when he was not hitting HRs. 2) His OBP was not primarily fueled by a high BB% during the period you claimed he was "useless", apparently because some Mets fan told you it was so. Did I get that context correct?

As for Moreland, I would prefer him because he is a much better fielder and he doesn’t have any chronic health issues. So, long droughts of offensive production only matters with Duda. Yes, Moreland is a better fielder and didn't miss much time due to injury. (Maybe he should have this year with the toe.) However, Duda has 35 more PAs than Moreland over the last 4 years.

His run production is not good. A Met fan at one game gave me the run down on how useless he was as a run producer when not hitting HRs. It is pretty bad. It was far more compelling than some stats compiled here. Maybe that Mets fan was drunk. No doubt, the RBI totals don't match up to the HR totals, but like you said, he's been hitting in a hapless line-up. One should expect less run production.

You keep harping one one of his last 3 full seasons in which his HRs and HRs alone were bunched up. His defense and speed are about average for a 1Bman, so bringing that up is grasping for straws or strawmen. His OBP is about at the mean for 1Bmen over the last 4 years. He's pretty much average at everything, except for his exceptional power, which happens to be our biggest off season need. Your best points are related to his health. I'd stick to that.

A .388 OBP speaks for itself. The context was that it occured at a time when Duda was hitting just 3 HRs in a 41 game stretch. You claimed when he was not hitting HRs in those three short stretches, he was not helping the team. Clearly, .388 in any context is helping your team.

The main plus of signing Duda is that we won't have to give up prospects or mega bucks for mega years or incur draft penalties by signing a QO free agent to get him. In theory, them money saved at 1B/DH could be spent to seriously up grade other areas. Duda should never be the centerpiece of our winter moves.

Pretty amazing. I sure hope we are not going to be viewing the Price contract in a similar way to the Miggy deal.

Were pitchers pitching around Duda for his first 41 games in the famed 2015 season of bunched up HRs? He had just 3 HRs up to May 20th, yet his BA was .295 and his OBP was .388, but I guess when he's not hitting HRs, he's next to useless. I wasn't there watching him play, so I guess the numbers must be fake news.

If we end up using Duda as a DH vs RHPs only, he'd still be worth the money projected by MLBTR. I'm assuming the rumors that HRam can play 1B FT next year are true. If Duda ends up playing some 1B or even plays a lot of 1B, because HRam gets hurt or struggles, it won't kill us. My scenario for signing Duda is based on us spending large on JD Martinez or Stanton and not trading JBJ. JD or Stanton would DH most of the time and play OF whenever someone needs a rest (maybe 20 games a year) or whenever someone gets hurt. Assuming 20 games in the OF, that leaves 162 games at 1B + 20 games at DH + 8 games rest for JD or GS for HRam and Duda. We could sit JBJ or Beni vs some tough lefties, but we wouldn't do that to get Duda in the game more often. So, basically 190 games with no injuries for HRam & Duda. Duda could start vs all RHPs, and HRam would start vs all LHPs plus a few vs RHPs (30 games or so). I know this opens a can of worms by denying HRam his 2019 vesting option, but he can still get 496 PAs and fall short. That's pretty close to what he got this year. If we don't get JD or GS, then Duda is not my choice to be our biggest offensive signing. I would not sign a 1Bman like Santana or Morrison plus Duda. There's not enough PAs at DH/1B for 3 guys.

I'll take your word for it. I've always been high on Marco, but it can't hurt to add another contender.