moonslav59

Of course, it's not a no-brainer. There are several major pluses and minuses on both sides of the choice. As of right now, I'd give him a 10 year extension at $300M starting after his last arb year. I might go $350M/12 right now buying out his arb years.

Summer 7-9 Slot Update Sox 4-9 (6/28) 6-12 (6/27) 5-12 (6/26) 4-8 (6/24) 1-10 (6/23) 6-15 (6/22) 5-13 (6/21) 31-79 (.392) Yanks 0-8 (6/27 includes pitcher slot) 1-12 (6/26) 1-12 (6/25) 2-15 (6/24) 1-9 (6/23) 1-9 (6/22) 0-10 (6/21) 6-75 (.080) I keep thinking our numbers will start to level off or go down, but they don't. The sample size is growing larger and larger. The gap keeps closing. What was once viewed as our weakness might turn out to be a strength.

Bottom of the order update pending....

JBJ is officially back!

All of the above plus replacing Swihart.

Yes, us. Good post.

I agree, but nobody will be signing him for his defense, and his defense is not going to up his value more than where it is now. If he does great for 2 full seasons with us and opts out, I would not be surprised if he ends up back here at just a little more per year or for a longer term deal at a similar $/yr rate. Maybe by then, he won't hate the DH'ing so much. Maybe he'll look for a place he can play OF more often. My guess is, if he does great, plays nearly every game and has a ring on his finger, he'll want to stay put.

While true, the odds makers will be looking closely at the SP'ers and home field when setting the odds.

I hope when Pom and or Wright come back, Cora uses the opportunity to give our starters, particularly Sale, a few extra days here and there. Without Sale in top form come October, our ring chances are severely diminished. To me, it's more important than winning the division and avoiding the play-in game.

I'm not arguing against Bird's upside potential. His minor league numbers show a lot of promise. His brief time in 2015 showed promise. My point was that JBJ had proven numerous times that he can put together long and good enough streaks to get his seasonal numbers to respectability. Bird has never played even close to a full MLB season. All bets are off. We can't "expect" anything.

I'd prefer yes, but either way, all teams should follow the same rules.

I get your point, but there was a strong reason for us to expect JBJ to get hot: he's done it 3 years in a row (maybe 4, if this is truly a hot streak we are seeing now). Why is there a strong expectation for Bird to not only get hot, but to improve to a level point expected of 1Bmen? What is his history? 2014: .869 in A+/AA 2015: .871 OPS in just 178 PAs (.825 in AA/AAA) 2016: .700 in fall league (78 PAs) 2017: .710 OPS in just 170 PAs (.99a in AA/A+) His minor league numbers look very nice, despite just 54 HRs in 1628 PAs. There are oddles and oodles of players who did great on the farm and ended up at below .770 in the bigs (his current career OPS) or .690 (his current OPS). Bird has a very limited window of ML success and that was way back in 2015 (46 games). Looks like apples and oranges in many ways, but yes, both JBJ and Bird had fans hoping they'd improve.

1. Betts RF 2. Beni LF 3. JD DH 4. Moreland 1B 5. Bogey SS 6. Holt 2B 7. Devers 3B 8. Vaz C 9. JBJ CF

I'm just not sure how 2 more excellent seasons would add more value to JD. He'll be 2 years older. Maybe more teams will be out from under their reset-the-tax mode, but I'm just not seeing JD getting a mega deal at age 32, when he couldn't get it at age 30. Of course, he's never led the league in HRs and RBI, like he is now, but the age and defense aspects are real.

While agree that money is what it's all about, I think giving 2 teams a shot at the final berth is worthwhile, especially with unbalanced schedules and weak divisions. If you do as Slasher suggests and go to a no division format, then you really reduce a lot of rivalry games (more money), and we end up taking 2 west coast trips every season. 14 teams x 10 games (5H & 5A)=140 22 games vs other league (maybe 3 gms x 6 teams + 2 gms x 2 teams) or 14 teams x 8 games (4H + 4A)= 112 10 teams x 3 games=30 5 teams x 4 games=20 (Not very unbalanced) You'd still end up with unbalance due to playing different NL/AL teams, but it's closer to parity. If you do away with inter league play: 6 teams x 11 games= 66 8 teams x 12 games= 96 Still slightly unbalanced I'm in favor of something more radical: a total realignment of MLB by doing away with the NL & AL and forming 5 divisions with 3 wild card teams (no play-in). East BOS NYY NYM PHI BAL PIT South WSH ATL TBR FLA HOU TEX North TOR DET CLE CIN CWS Cubs Central MN MIL STL KCR COL AZ West SEA OAK SFG LAD LAA SDP Schedule: vs own DIV 16 gms x 5 team= 80 3 gms x 18 teams=54 4 gms x 7 teams= 28

I agree, and the best part about getting a solid #2 RP'er is that it pushes everyone but Kimbrel down a notch. Kimbrel ______ Kelly Barnes Hembree Workman Wright or Pom Velzquez/Poyner/Walden/Scott/Haley/Beeks

Current fWAR numbers: 4.6 Betts 3.2 JD 2.9 Beni 2.4 Bogey 1.5 Moreland 0.9 Holt 0.8 Devers 0.5 JBJ 0.3 Leon -0.1 Ramirez -0.2Lin -0.3 Vaz -0.5 Nunez -0.6 Swihart NYY 3.8 Judge 2.4 Stanton 2.4 Gregorius 2.0 Hicks 1.9 Gardner 1.3 Sanchez 1.2 Torres 0.8 Romine 0.8 Andujar 0.6 Torreyes 0.2 Birs 0.2 Frazier 0.1 Austin -0,1 Drury -0.5 Wade -1.0 Walker Pitching Boston 3.6 Sale 2.0 Porcello 1.7 Price 1.4 ERod 0.3 Johnson 0.1 Wright -0.1 Pom 0.9 Barnes 0.8 Kimbrel 0.5 Kelly 0.4 Velazquez 0.4 Hembree 0.3 Poyner 0.2 Walden 0.1 Smith NYY 4.2 Severino 1.1 Sab 1.0 Gray 0.7 German 0.5 Loaisiga 0.5 Tanaka 0.2 Montgomery 1.6 Chapman 1.2 Green 1.0 Robertson 0.8 Holder 0.8 Betances 0.2 Warren 0.1 Cole -0.4 Shreve Top 3 SP combined WAR 7.3 BOS 6.3 NYY Top 4 8.7 BOS 7.0 NYY Top 4 Pen 4.6 NYY 2.6 BOS Top 5 pen 5.4 NYY 3.0 BOS When you compare us to the Yanks, the only clear weakness we have is with the pen. Although our pen has seemingly over performed for about a year and a half now, maybe they should start getting the respect they deserve, but that being said, we are still way behind the Yanks in this crucial area. With Smith out all year and Thornburg demoted to AA, I'm not so sure we can hope for much help from within. Maybe Workman with a 0.3 fWAR in just 9 IP can fill a need, but we may need to upgrade here, if we want to close this gap with the Yanks (and Astros).

Top 3 SP combined WAR 7.3 BOS 6.3 NYY Top 4 8.7 BOS 7.0 NYY Top 4 Pen 4.6 NYY 2.6 BOS Top 5 pen 5.4 NYY 3.0 BOS

Current fWAR numbers: 4.6 Betts 3.2 JD 2.9 Beni 2.4 Bogey 1.5 Moreland 0.9 Holt 0.8 Devers 0.5 JBJ 0.3 Leon -0.1 Ramirez -0.2Lin -0.3 Vaz -0.5 Nunez -0.6 Swihart NYY 3.8 Judge 2.4 Stanton 2.4 Gregorius 2.0 Hicks 1.9 Gardner 1.3 Sanchez 1.2 Torres 0.8 Romine 0.8 Andujar 0.6 Torreyes 0.2 Birs 0.2 Frazier 0.1 Austin -0,1 Drury -0.5 Wade -1.0 Walker Pitching Boston 3.6 Sale 2.0 Porcello 1.7 Price 1.4 ERod 0.3 Johnson 0.1 Wright -0.1 Pom 0.9 Barnes 0.8 Kimbrel 0.5 Kelly 0.4 Velazquez 0.4 Hembree 0.3 Poyner 0.2 Walden 0.1 Smith NYY 4.2 Severino 1.1 Sab 1.0 Gray 0.7 German 0.5 Loaisiga 0.5 Tanaka 0.2 Montgomery 1.6 Chapman 1.2 Green 1.0 Robertson 0.8 Holder 0.8 Betances 0.2 Warren 0.1 Cole -0.4 Shreve

I'll add that these numbers highlight how wrong i was about who we should and should not have signed. I wanted Moose over Moreland.

Plus, why would NYM want Porcello, who has just 1 year left? I suppose they could flip him for a young hitter.

The ERA- differential is pretty significant, and our top 4 starters needed in the playoffs seem much better than the Yankees. ERA- 50 Severino 60 Sale 76 Sabathia 84 Porcello 86 Price 90 ERod 110 Tanaka 118 Gray Their 1 & 2 have better numbers, so far, but I'm guessing Price or Porcello pass CC by season's end. Our 3 & 4 blow NY's away... so far.

LOL. You got that right about this poster.

I've always been very hopeful about Marco, but I'm not counting on him for anything this year. Sad story.

I know you don't think too highly of our starters, especially our 3-6 slot starters, but we've had better numbers than the Yankee starters, to date. ERA- 5. BOS 87 7. NYY 91 SIERA 5. BOS 3.65 7. NYY 3.75 WHIP 6. NYY 1.19 7. BOS 1.21 xFIP- 6. NYY 90 8. BOS 91 K/BB 3.39 BOS 3.24 NYY ERA- 50 Severino 60 Sale 76 Sabathia 84 Porcello 86 Price 90 ERod 110 Tanaka 118 Gray 141 German (not counted on for playoffs) 159 Pom (not counted on for playoffs) Looks to me like our 3-6 starters have been our strength, and I didn't include Wright or our other starters on this list, and they have done a very good job as 6-9 slot starters).