moonslav59

I agree, we need 1 and probably 2 hitting improvements, but I don't think it's a stretch to think a healthy Price and Smith and a couple upturns by our young players could help us improve on 93 wins without major additions. I just want to be surer. I want to be a co-favorite, at least to win the AL.

Teams have been making trades to increase their pools, the Sox being one.

This is what I have been pushing. Large sample size warning. 2014-2017 vs RHPs only: 1413 PAs for Duda .861 OPS (better than Hosmer .845, Santana .820, Morrison .788 & Moreland .772) 79 HRs (Santana 78, Freeman 77, Miggy 74, Votto 73, Morrison 71, 58 HRam, Morelaand 58) Mind you, this is just against RHPs. He'll be cheap. He'll keep HRam from reaching 497 PAs, and he'll be an excellent compliment to JD.

Doesn't Miggy have a broken back?

...and Stanton's luxury tax number is "only $25M" not $29.5M a year times 10. Food for pondering.

So, Pedey, HRam, Castillo and $5M a year for 4 years for Stanton. (Joking)

Yogi, "it's not over till it's over." JF, "It's all over now; I'm in charge."

"Ooops, you mean I can't make a pitching change right now?"

To me, the JD, Duda and Nunez plan is about the minimum I think we need to be a top 3-4 contender. It may fall short. We may need JD, Santana and Cobb.

Moreland has been under .737 in 3 of the last 5 years. HRam has been under .737 once in the past 6 years- the year his shoulder was smashed- in. I don;t have much confidence in either of these guys. HRam is a little older and more injury prone, but he's under contract, so we bring him back and see what he's got. If he sucks we boot him. My plan also makes sure we're covered, if he does suck. I want us to sign JD to play DH and maybe some 1B, Duda to platoonb with HRam or play 1B, and Nunez, which would allow Pedey to DH instead of HRam. You just don't cut a $22M guy one year removed from a season with an OPS (.866) better than his career OPS (.852). 2016-2017 Numbers: Stat HRam- Moreland PA 1173 1079 HR 53 44 RBI 173 139 ISO .204 .193 OBP .342 .313 SLG .469 .433 wRC+ 112 93 WAR 2.3 1.3 Sure, HRam is more on the downside of his career than Moreland, and the bum shoulders are worrisome, but he looked okay vs Houston. I'm giving him a spring look and a chance to shine in 2018. I'm also hoping we set ourselves up nicely, in case he fails.

Yes. Your logic fails.. i agree.

A possible optimistic perspective: I've done this in past years, and it never seems to work out as hoped. Each year produces a new list of "replaceable" players to hope for replacing the following year.. It worked this year at the catcher position as I projected the replacing of Hanigan and Holiday's horrific numbers would overshadow the expected downturn by Leon from 2016 to 2017. Here it goes, for what it's worth: Replacing these guys' PAs and OPS 276 Young .709 188 Marrero .593 164 B Holt .548 118 Rutledge .558 108 Sandoval .622 38 Ra. Davis .595 9 Selsky .333 7 Swihart .629 That's over 890 PAs total. Most would be replaced by more PAs by Devers and whoever we sign this winter. We may also end up replacing... 576 Moreland .769 with a better FA signing. We may replace some of these PAs: 301 Leon .644 (with more from Vaz) 66 Lin .709 60 Hernandez .628 Pitching IP ERA+ 203 Porcello 98 (with a better Porcello) 90 Fister 94 (with more starts by Price, ERod and possibly Wright) 62 Hembree 126 (with Smith, Workman, Scott and Maddox) 44 Abad 139 41 Boyer 105 27 Reed 138 27 Johnson 106 25 Velazquez 158 8 Kendrick 37 8 Ramirez + Martin + Elias More innings by Price, ERod, Wright, Smith, Workman, Scott and Maddox should be an improvement.

Would you consider signing JD, Duda and Nunez as "drastic", in light of us letting all these guys go? Young $6.5M Moreland $5.5M Reed $7.75M (about $2.6M) Nunez $4.2M (about $1.4M from Sox) Davis $6M (about $2M from Sox) Abad $2.0M Fister $1.8M Boyer $0.6M Total: ~$22M

I do expect an uptick from the majority of these guys: Betts JBJ Bogey Beni Devers (if only by virtue of playing a full year) I do not think that alone will be enough, assuming we bring back Moreland and maybe Nunez as the "stand pat" option. Vaz may decline on offense. HRam and Pedey are very sketchy. Moreland or a replacement in kind may decline. I know how big FA signings fail very often. I'm scared of what might happen after signing JD or Moose. I just don't see our most pressing issue being solved from within the system. I think Henry reset the luxury tax for a major push as the window is still open. We went all out for a ring. Playing it halfway now would be a mistake, in my opinion.

Uou could sign Moustakas this winter, move Devers to 1B/DH with HRam. Starve HRam of PAs to keep the option from vesting. Sign Machado next winter and move Moustakas to 1B and Devers to DH.

Good summary of our most pressing issues. We only have a couple open positions: 1B/DH and DH-utility, unless we trade a starter. We have to make the most of those fillings. Bringing back Moreland makes little sense, unless he's all we can afford after trading for Stanton and maybe signing someone else to fill the hole(s) left by the trade. Free agency has not worked well for us. JD or Moustakas could tank as soon as we sign them, but to me, they offer our best chance at greatly improving our power without giving up anyone. We can hop others, like Betts, Beni, JBJ and Bogey (maybe Vaz) add some power from their 2017 numbers. I don't think that's unreasonable to project. We can get more HRs from a full season of Devers as well. I like JD best, but I hate the idea of signing basically a DH-only guy. He could fill in as our 4th OF'er- another significant need area, but I's prefer a 1Bman that can hit 35+ HRs. Moustakas would probably hit 35+ and improve our 3B defense, but maybe our 1B defense would suffer by having Devers & HRam share time there and at DH. It's not an easy choice, and those aren't the only two choices, but to me, they are clearly the two best FA options out there right now.

It's essential for us.

Agreed. I have never said he can not improve or eventually be a plus. I am concerned his learning curve may hurt our chances next year, but I'm fine with keeping him at 3B. My first choice is JD. We don't always get our first choices, even if we outbid everyone. My second choice is Moustakas. My third choice is a trade for Stanton, Donaldson or Beltre. I do not think Votto will come here.

+101

No, he doesn't NEED TO BE MOVED, but what if JD really wants to play elsewhere. All that is left in free agency, is Moustakas. My first choice is JD.

Did you watch the games? Counting the playoffs, I think he was on pace for 45+ errors per 162 games. I'm fine with keeping him at 3B and letting him learn "on the job", but I think he'd be better at 1B than 3B.

Word was the main reason the did not bring Devers up earlier was because of his defense.

Every time I metion signing Mouse, I mention moving Devers to 1B, where he will likely end up eventually anyway.

I read somewhere it was $207M. The real number is the secondary penalty phase level, which I think is $237M, but if it's $227M, then we are squeezed, unless we decide to drop our draft pick 10 slots and go for broke.

]'m honored by the comp. Thanks. We may disagree a lot, but I value your insights.