moonslav59

Yes, for 2-3 more team-controlled years.

"The Red Sox simply are running out of top prospects to trade. That's not just hyperbole. That's a fact. Some phone calls to general managers around the majors confirm that. "

$2M plus a likely luxury tax is probably not worth it.

Maybe because they have many more years of team control, but that's not close to getting a deal like this done. They might take ERod and Travis.

$14.6M a year luxury tax hit is not bad, I'd consider it, in that scenario.

Well, I figured Santana and Cobb were better and higher paid than Naps & Demps, so I lowered Vic to Nunez and a position of need.

Dalbec and Travis? Probably not, but it took other better prospects included to get Sale, Kimbrel and Thornburg.

I think we can push the cliff back to 2021 as well, assuming we're set up to spend big in 2020. I guess we could spend large for consecutive years, but that would take a philosophy change by Henry that I'm guessing will not occur. Paying big taxes one year is one thing, but paying even bigger taxes (plus maybe other penalties) for the second or third year is asking for a major commitment.

Yes, sadly that is true. Since he has an option, I think we should keep him on the 40 man until we know more about Pedey. If we sign a FA, I'd DFA Owens. If we sign a second FA, I might consider Holt.

Could we get the next Pom for Groome? Is he higher valued than Espi? Resigning Sale will cost $30+M.

Dalbec and Travis seemed to regress this year. None of these guys compare to the value Margot, Moncada, Kopech, Dubon, Basabe and others had for those trades DD made. Sure, some may rise like Betts did, but that is rare. I'm talking the odds of things happening not wishful thinking. I find it strange I was bashed for wishful thinking on Espinoza and margot, but now I'm being asked to be optimistic about Groome and ockimey.

That's how I feel now, too, but I think Holt deserves a look in ST'ing to see if he looks to be near his allstar season level. Plus, he has an option, so we can keep him as depth. The last 2 roster spots may come down to Marrero (0 options), Swihart (0 options) and Lin (2 options) as Holt starts in AAA.

Well, we did win in 2013 without two bash brothers. We could try to recreate 2013 by signing Santana (Napoli), Cobb (Dempster) and Nunez (Vic).

As you pointed out, a strong positional player farm can be used to trade for top pitching like Sale, Kimbrel and Pomeranz, but where are those prospects now in our system that can net us close to those returns, when we need more strong pitching?

Where's the "supporting" evidence we can do this? To replace a top starter and closer and a strong number two will cost a fortune on the FA market, and we're probably not getting the next Chris Sale for Quiroz, Groome and Ockimey. Even if Bogey I JBJ cost $15M each, we're looking at... $31M Price $25M Betts $15M Bogey $15M JBJ ___ Ace ___ Closer ___ #2-3 starter This alone will look to be close to $140-150M, unless we get lucky on a trade or our system finally develops a SP'er (like Groome) to be a solid #2-3 type. We had little faith in Kopech and Espinoza, why should we not have faith in Groome, Houck or Beeks?

I'm not doubting that, and signing Price went a long way to fixing that problem as well. My point is, the farm will not be as strong as when DD took over, so trading for guys like Sale and Pom isn't going to happen with scraps on the farm.

I've always said I felt we probably could remain competitive for 2020, if we set up the tax so we can go over by $39M that year. I think Kimmi says it starts in 2020. To me, the "cliff" means we will not be favorites to make the playoffs for a couple years or so. It does not mean last place for 2-3 years in a row.

Yes, you are right. Pom & Kimbrel after 2018 (along with Kelly) Sale & Porcello after 2019 (along with Bogey & Thornburg) My bad.

I agree, but until we know how Pedey's return is looking, we may want to keep as much depth at 2B as possible.

I'm not so sure Chavis does either.

I don't think trying to "recreate" past rosters is the best way to construct a roster. I agree, getting two power hitter instead of one is better, but there are other ways to win than just bashing the other teams to death.

In a sense, we got "lucky" with Betts- drafting him with out 8th pick in the 2011 draft (round 5). That is not an easy thing to do, and our organization does not have a long history of these types of draftings, not does DDwith his previous teams. We have a pretty awful record drafting 20th or below. It's also been a long time since we got any sandwich picks- an area we have obtained many good players from in the past. (We may get something if Pom & Kimbrel are offered QO's and decide to bolt.) A lot of Ben's farm building came via international signings, and now that is heavily restricted, and our farm is still suffering from the ban on signings we went through a while back. It's not impossible, but it will be extremely difficult to draft or sign as international FAs as many good players as we did before. 2011 to 2014 Own Draft Picks 2011 2 (81) Williams Jerez 3 (111) Jordan Weems) 4 (143) N Ramirez 5 (172) M Betts 9 (292) T Shaw 2012 1 (24) Marrero 2 (87) Callahan 3 (118) Maddox 4 (151) Buttrey 2013 1 (7) T Ball (big swing and miss) 2 (45) Stankiewicz (not protected for rule 5) 3 (81) J Denny (out of baseball) 4 (113 Miles Smith 9 (263) Kyle Martin 11th round C Asuaje (traded for Kimbrel) 26th round M Dubon (big part of Thornburg trade) 2014 1 (26) Chavis (looking better) 2 (67) Travis (stock slipped last year) 3 (103) Jake Cosart 5 (164) Ockimey 13 (404) C Shepherd (protected from rule 5) 2015 1 (7) Beni (should not be getting #7 pick for a while, especially if we never hit "the cliff") 3 (81) A Rei 4 (111) T Matheny 8 (231) L Allen (part of Kimbrel trade) Comp Picks 2011 1 (19) Barnes & (36) Owens for VMart 1 (26) Swihart & (40) JBJ for Beltre 2012 1 (31) B Johnson & (37) Pat Light (traded for Abad) 2013 none 2014 1 (33) Kopech (big part of Sale trade) International Signings: 2011: M Margot (big piece for Kimbrel deal) T-W Lin J Aro (part of Smith deal) A Tavarez 2012 L Basabe (part of Sale trade) L Basabe (part of Ziegler trade) J Guerra (part of Kimbrel trade) W Rijo (part of A Hill trade) V Acosta 2013 R Devers (big signing) D Hernandez 2014 Y Moncada (big part of Sale trade) A Espinoza (Pomeranz deal-straight up) R Castillo (bust) R Raudes Now look at 2016-2017 (compare the quality of players) 2016 1 (12) J Groome (should not be picking this high for a while) 2 (51) Chatham 3 (88) Anderson 4 (118) Dalbec 5 (148) Shawaryn 2017 1 (24) T Houck 2 (63) C Brannen 3 (101) B Netzer 4 (131) J Thompson 5 (161) A Scherff No Comp picks since 2014 (and Kopech was the only one since 2012). International Signings: 2016: B Mata H Velazquez 2017: D Flores (passes away) Danny Diaz E Quiroz I guess one thing that seems a little inconsistent is that when we traded away so many of our top prospects, many posters kept stressing the point that these players had only speculative value and couldn't be counted on for anything, and these prospects were very highly ranked. Now, we are being asked to have faith in lower ranked prospects to fill out the roster in 2020 with low-cost, high-yield players. With much tighter restrictions on international signings, we are being expected to keep stocking the farm like we did with Devers, Moncada, Espinoza, Margot, Basabe, and others. No, it's not impossible, but where's the evidence to support the position that we are on the right track towards rebuilding a farm even close to as strong as 2014-2015? To me, that position is hard to support.

I never came close to saying the cliff was a certainty or that the cliff meant we'd finish in last place. I do think the odds strongly favor us having an extremely hard time staying HIGHLY COMPETITIVE starting around 2020 to 2021 and maybe lasting 2 years or so. This is based on an assumption that Henry is not going to spend $39M (or more) over the luxury limit almost every year going forward. I hope DD drafts well and makes some shrewd international signings, and we stay pretty competitive through those years, but I wouldn't bet on it. I'll leave it at that.

I like Lin, too, and I'm not sure keeping the out-of-options Marrero is a top priority for IF depth. I could see Holt being the odd man out, but his ability to play 1B and OF might make him a better choice than Marrero. The estimated $2M price tag could mean Holt is traded or DFA'd. I see these guys being on the opening day roster: 0 Leon 0 Swihart 0 Brentz 0 Marrero 2 Hernandez (starting 2Bman) I think I'd choose Marrero over Holt as Holt has one option left, and although I like Lin over Holt and Marrero, I think we need as much IF depth as possible, at least until (and if) Pedey returns.

That might not be enough, even if Abreu had one year of team control.