moonslav59

The numbers i listed are the luxury tax budget numbers or the average yearly salary of each player's contracts. Yes, you are right, The luxury tax limit is $207M not $197M. I will go back and edit. The second tier 12% tax at $217M The third tier penalties kick in at $237M. I can see the Sox going up to $39M over the limit.

If we went short term, we could build depth to insure against a Pedey, HRam and others, maybe something like... maybe 3-4 from these guys Nunez (IF) Duda (1B-DH) Avila © trade Leon Werth (4th OF) D Holland (SP) A Cashner (SP)

I doubt a short term deal gets us the true clean-up hitter we need. I really only see two legitimate power hitting clean-up hitters on the FA market, and both have question marks: Mostakas (Move Devers to 1B and hope HRam can DH like 2016 not 2017.) JD Martinez (DH and 4th OF'er) To me, all the 1-2 year options are big gamble or long shots. Another choice might be to sign Cobb, Duda and Nunez and trade ERod and a couple prospects for Donaldson or Beltre, then move Devers to 1B. A trade for Machado with an extension could be another choice.

I think we reset this year, so we could go over next year. I think we go $30M+ over.

You missed my point. I'm saying we have less money than you hinted at to be near the limit. My guess is, we go way over the limit but not enough to reach the second tier penalties. Those penalties are not really that awful, but I think we try to stay under it. On the luxury tax... The financial details of the surcharge thresholds were previously known. If a team spends above $217MM in 2018, it will receive an extra 12% tax in addition to the usual 20%, 30% or 50% luxury tax. If a team spends over $237MM, it will receive an extra 42.5% or 45% surcharge tax. Beginning in 2018, there will be an extra penalty for teams in that second category, Cooper notes. A team that spends above $237MM will also have its top draft pick lowered ten spots, unless that pick is in the top six, in which case the team’s second pick will be lowered ten spots. If we come in at about $197M before any signings (see A Realistic View at 2018: Part I), we'll have just under $40M to spend and not get the major penalty. That's enough to get JD Martinez, Duda and Nunez. Maybe we go large for just 2 guys. We coudl even go more than $40M over for just this one year and hope to go lower next year as several players come off the books, including maybe HRam.

DD has to take the shiny Holt toy away from JF. No Rutledge. No Moreland, Young, Reed, Fister & Davis. Maybe bring Nunez back. Maybe sign JD Martinez and Duda to squeeze HRam under 497 PAs and no 2019 vesting $22M option. Maybe, instead, we trade for Donaldson or Beltre and move Devers to 1B and keep HRam at DH. Maybe we sign a pitcher and then trade ERod and prospects for a real 1Bman or 3Bman. Maybe, maybe, maybe.

Link to 2017 Part III http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18323-A-Realistic-View-at-2017-Part-III?p=1102497&posted=1#post1102497

The 40 Man Roster: Eight Free Agents to be (with 2017 Luxury Tax cost): Young $6.5M Moreland $5.5M Reed $7.75M (about $2.6M) Nunez $4.2M (about $1.4M from Sox) Davis $6M (about $2M from Sox) Abad $2.0M Fister $1.8M Boyer $0.6M Total: ~$22M The 40 man Roster (luxury tax 2018 cost): [37 non-free agents on roster] $31.0M Price $22.0M HRam $20.6M Porcello ($19M Sandoval- not on roster/ counts against luxury tax budget) $13.8M Pedroia $12.0M Kimbrel ($11.7M Castillo- not on 40 man roster/does not count on luxury budget) $11.5M Sale (option) Total Under Contract: ~$131M Arbs --from MLBTR estimates: (year of arb) ~$9.1M Pomeranz (3 of 3) ~$8.2M Betts (1 of 3) ~$7.6M Bogey (2 of 3) ~$5.9M Bradley (2 of 4) ~$3.6M Kelly (3 of 3) ~$2.7M ERod (1 of 4) ~$2.1M Thornburg (2 of 3) ~$2.1M Leon (2 of 4) ~$2.1M Smith (1 of 3) ~$2.0M Ross (3 of 3) ~$2.0M Holt (2 of 3) Non-tender? ~$1.5M Vaz (1 of 3) ~$1.2M Wright (1 of 3) ~$0.9M Workman (2 of 3) ~$0.6M Rutledge (2 of 3) Non-tender? ~$0.6M Swihart (1 of 4) $52.2M in arbs Pre-arbs: Beni, Devers, Barnes, Hembree, Scott, Hernandez, Maddox, Travis, Lin, Marrero, Taylor, Velazquez, Johnson, Elias, Owens (+3 players from Rule 5 or Minor League FA lists) Total Pre-Arb Costs: $5M Total Estimated Cost (No Free Agent Signings Counted): $188M +13M Player benefits= $201M Luxury Tax Budget Limit: $207M Estmated $5-10M under the limit without any signings. Maybe if we don’t tender contracts to Holt and Rutledge we can come in around the $197M mark. Rule 5 (must be added to 40 man roster on 11/29/17 or risk loss): Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Trey Ball, Jalen Beeks, Danny Bethea, Jordan Betts, Ty Buttrey, Rusney Castillo, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Enmanuel De Jesus, Jhonathan Diaz, Willis Figueroa, Pat Goetze, Daniel Gonzalez, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Bryan Hudson, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Isaias Lucena, Danny Mars, Kyle Martin, Algenis Martinez, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Ritzi Mendoza, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Jhon Nunez, Justin Pacchioli, Yankory Pimentel, Jordan Procyshen, Hildemaro Requena, Jeremy Rivera, Fernando Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Chandler Shepherd, Josh Smith, Teddy Stankiewicz, Cole Sturgeon, Aneury Tavarez, Carlos Tovar, Jantzen Witte Minor League Free Agents (will become free agents in November, 2017 if not added to 40 man roster or signed to a contract): Jeremy Barfield, Brian Bogusevic, Bryce Brentz, Dan Butler, Ryan Court, Jacob Dahlstrand, Matt Dominguez, Conrad Gregor, Shawn Haviland, Williams Jerez, Kyle Kendrick, Deiner Lopez, Heiker Meneses, Edgar Olmos, Mike Olt, Mitchell Osnowitz, Tim Roberson, Steve Selsky, Jose Sermo, Aneury Tavarez, Herny Urrutia, Elih Villaneuva, Marcus Walden, Jordan Weems I won't get into some choices to be made this winter, as there will be plenty of time for that, but clearly our biggest need is a clean-up hitter. The position needed most is 1B or 3B, if we move Devers to 1B (perhaps prematurely) and DH. With HRam's option vesting for 2019, if he gets 497 PAs next year AND passes the physical. That will likely be an issue discussed too much this winter. Then there's the can HRam play 1B debate. Here are some possible FA signings that fit the need I mentioned plus a few other big names that we could sign and then trade who we have now to fill the corner IF & DH slots. 1B: Santana, Hosmer, Duda, Morrison, Reynolds, Moreland, Alonso 3B: Moustakas, Frazier, Y Escobar SS: Cozart (trade Bogey or move him to 3B and Devers to 1B?) 2B/DH/IF: Nunez DH/OF: JD Martinez, J Bruce, Granderson SP: Arrieta, Darvish, Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn Lots of choices, but not many great ones who play 1B. Let the debates begin...

It's not that simple. We'll have big arb raises and option raises to Sale and Kimbrel. Watch for the 2018 thread coming soon.

We reset the tax for a reason. What I see as the biggest problem is that there are no free agents that fit our biggest need- a 1Bman with excellent clean-up hitting skills. We could sign players to other positions and then trade for a 1Bman and/or clean-up hitter. We could go for depth and a DH like JD Martinez, Duda AND Nunez. We could trade for Donaldson or Beltre and move Devers to 1B.

You should win or lose with your best on the field. It was the right call. Had JF brought in Reed, in theory impossible, since he was axed, but yes he would have been an idiot-- which he already is.

Tough way to lose. The bases loaded- no outs- no runs was the killer. Bad strikes called--maybe 4 of them to JBJ and Pedey combined. Ran into 2 outs in one innings. 2 bad throws by Beni- luckily none led to runs. Like the pitching moves made by JF. We lost with out best out there. I hate thinking, "Wait till next year" so soon, but this team just had too many weak spots to overcome. Good core going into next season, but we need to win the off-season with some bold moves.

Makes sense. Maybe we trade for Donaldson or Beltre.

Usually, yes, but in terms of just a FA signing this winter, Moustakas is better than any 1Bman on the market.

Interesting quote. I'm not going to go back and look at the play charts of every game, but you are right, Sale was not involved in many blow-outs. May 7th 17-6 win. Sale only went 6 IP. May 24th 9-4 win. Sale went 7.1 June 19th 11-3 win. Sale went 7.0. July 1st 7-1 win. Sale went 7.0. Sep 9th 9-0 win. Sale went 6.0 Sep 15th 13-6. Sale went 5.2 Sep 20th 9-0. Sale went 8.0

True, and so was Bagwell, whom they traded rather than move to 1B. I'm usually fine with giving young players a long rope on improving a singular weakness, but this team may have to greatly improve several weak spots to be highly competitive next season. I'm not sure we can afford to allow 45+ errors at 3B and beat the Yanks again to win the division.

How the heck can you save a starter a month for the end of the season...............? If you gave him an extra day off more times a year than he normally gets, he'd have one less start that year. That might not be enough. If you could do that plus maybe take him out an inning earlier 7 or 8 more times a year, that might, in a sense, be the same as having one less start over a full season. Would both of these things be enough to make a difference in October? Certainly, the answer could be "no". Certainly, it could cost us the division or playoff berth. Is it worth even considering? is it worth trying next year? I will say that late season 8 inning start was not needed. I'm not sure how many other starts could have been shortened, and how that might have taxed the pen and messed up their effectiveness. It's not an easy decision to make. Sox brass might not even think it's worth considering, let alone trying next year. I get that.

Certainly, nothing is "for sure". It's easy to postulate that resting Sale more from day one on might help him do better in September and beyond, but we could try it and he could do even worse late in the year. We could also not win the division by trying to limit his pitches over the full season. I get that. Can anyone think of another idea to try and reverse this data? Month ERA OPS against May 2.57/ .538 June 2.66/ .594 July 2.66/ .628 Aug 3.22/ .645 Sept 3.78/ .750 We're talking sample sizes all above 780 PAs and 199 IP. I'm not sure what can be done, of if anything can be done at all. I'm just thinking we could try to limit his pitches as much as possible while trying not to lessen our chances to win by too, too much. That might not be possible.

I think he can, too. He's so damn young, it's hard to imagine him not being able to improve to a significant extent. The issue may be how long it takes, and how much he may hurt us with his defense as he improves. Since we need a 1Bman next year, and no FA first basemen are jump out at me as "must have", one has to consider the idea of seeking a great 3Bman and moving Devers to 1B, perhaps prematurely. I'd be fine with getting Votto at a reasonable cost and letting Devers work hard on his D over the winter. It might be easier to get Donaldson or Beltre. A trade and extend for Machado could be something to look into. I'm not sure Moustakas is a much better choice than Santana, Duda or Morrison.

Sale has a long history of fading in September. he has had very little work in October. He pitched over 226 innings last year and led the league in IP this year. I have said that MAYBE he has issues with season-long endurance. I'm not sure endurance is the reason, but it could be. Price had had issues in the playoffs, so I mentioned maybe he has the same issues....MAYBE. I'm not one to make rash judgments based on a two game sample size, but Price has looked awesome this post season- one where he has not started 33 games and pitched over 200 innings. It could just be coincidence, since Price's monthly ERA has shown he looks better and better as the year goes on, then he falls off a cliff in October. I realize one could argue the opposite of what I am saying and make a lot of sense. I don't claim to know the causes. There might not even be any "cause" other than just bad luck late in the season. I do think that, in general, the more you can rest your big gun starters, the better chance they will be stronger at the end of the season. I do not think my position is radical.

Anyone else getting even more seriously concerned about the lack of defensive skills possessed by Devers? I know his offense makes up for most or all of it, but man-o-man....

Sometimes, you do, yes, but not before we see how he looks next spring. And, not when we may be able to prevent a $22M payment in 2019.

A team should always strive to improve on its weak areas, even weak areas of net plus players.

And, you see no problem that should be fixed, even if those 100 blunders led to 5 losses that could have been avoided? Well, he won 5 games with great plays, so the 5 losses don't matter at all, right? How about being +5 instead of net zero.

Apparently, both shoulders were hurt this year. Maybe it is a chronic thing, and we can't expect any better going forward. I've mentioned he might need surgery, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him get it this winter. That could help or hurt his 2018 numbers. JF said early this season that HRam would not play 1B the rest of the season, but then he did--a little. Who knows?