moonslav59

He will. I'm sure of it. I think it took guts to reset the tax this year and watch us fall short. The problem is, the Yanks should get better, even without any new signings. The Guardians and Astros are stocked, young and not up against a luxury tax. Other teams may rise as well. We not only have to spend, we'll have to out-spend others, maybe by a lot, to gain any traction.

Well, just a couple days ago, a poster was claiming we should DFA our best playoff hitter and number one HR% guy- HRam.

I seem to remember many GMs wanting JBJ last winter. Rumor was the Guardians wanted him as part of a package for Carrasco or Salazar.

Target a bat like JD Martinez, and who cares at this point about the luxury taxes. They have to win with Sale, Betts, Benni, Devers, while they can. Of all the batters available as a free agent, JD looks like my first choice. Signing Moustakas would improve our defense by moving Devers to 1B, and keeping the DH slot open for HRam and Pedey. Close call for me. I'd rather go FA than trade, but I'm not that happy with the FA choices. I do think we go way over the limit...maybe even over the $237M penalty level. Sign JD Martinez, Duda and Nunez. JD Martinez: 650 PAs--400 at DH, 150 in LF and 100 at 1B Duda: 550 PAs--450 at 1B (vs most RHPers) & 100 at DH HRam: 475 PAs--250 at 1B (vs LHPs) & 200 at DH (HRam misses his vesting option.) Nunez: 500 PAs-- 250 at 2B, 100 at 3B, 100 at SS & 50 in LF

Sign Moreland to DH? We add nothing from this year's team. We shrink our 3-4 year window- now 2-3 year window to a 1-2 year window- all to wait for Machado? If we sign a 1Bman, it means Devers stays at 3B.

And he pretty much stuck with a lineup that in the last two games started to work if not all the time. He didn't even stick to the line-up that scored 10 runs in game 3. He flipped Pedey and Bogey. Both sucked all series- pretty much. He benched Leon for Vaz. Not sure this was bad, but it wasn't "brilliant".

JF is brilliant! Young had a 1.500 OPS this series!!!! (sarcasm alert)

We already have no 4th OF'er, so trading JBJ, means we have to spend for 2 OF'ers. I don't see it. The Cobb signing is probably a pipe dream. Our farm is not void. I think an ERod, Groome and Chavis offer might entice the Jays. More likely, we'd trade less for Beltre. We need to find power somewhere. I'm not a huge fan of either Moustakas or JD Martinez, and any trade we make will just open another hole that will take major dollars to fill, in kind. I do not want to trade JBJ or Bogey, but I do think one might be dealt. ERod and Bogaerts for Donaldson? Then sign a couple mid level SP'ers and some top bench guys?

The numbers i listed are the luxury tax budget numbers or the average yearly salary of each player's contracts. Yes, you are right, The luxury tax limit is $207M not $197M. I will go back and edit. The second tier 12% tax at $217M The third tier penalties kick in at $237M. I can see the Sox going up to $39M over the limit.

If we went short term, we could build depth to insure against a Pedey, HRam and others, maybe something like... maybe 3-4 from these guys Nunez (IF) Duda (1B-DH) Avila © trade Leon Werth (4th OF) D Holland (SP) A Cashner (SP)

I doubt a short term deal gets us the true clean-up hitter we need. I really only see two legitimate power hitting clean-up hitters on the FA market, and both have question marks: Mostakas (Move Devers to 1B and hope HRam can DH like 2016 not 2017.) JD Martinez (DH and 4th OF'er) To me, all the 1-2 year options are big gamble or long shots. Another choice might be to sign Cobb, Duda and Nunez and trade ERod and a couple prospects for Donaldson or Beltre, then move Devers to 1B. A trade for Machado with an extension could be another choice.

I think we reset this year, so we could go over next year. I think we go $30M+ over.

You missed my point. I'm saying we have less money than you hinted at to be near the limit. My guess is, we go way over the limit but not enough to reach the second tier penalties. Those penalties are not really that awful, but I think we try to stay under it. On the luxury tax... The financial details of the surcharge thresholds were previously known. If a team spends above $217MM in 2018, it will receive an extra 12% tax in addition to the usual 20%, 30% or 50% luxury tax. If a team spends over $237MM, it will receive an extra 42.5% or 45% surcharge tax. Beginning in 2018, there will be an extra penalty for teams in that second category, Cooper notes. A team that spends above $237MM will also have its top draft pick lowered ten spots, unless that pick is in the top six, in which case the team’s second pick will be lowered ten spots. If we come in at about $197M before any signings (see A Realistic View at 2018: Part I), we'll have just under $40M to spend and not get the major penalty. That's enough to get JD Martinez, Duda and Nunez. Maybe we go large for just 2 guys. We coudl even go more than $40M over for just this one year and hope to go lower next year as several players come off the books, including maybe HRam.

DD has to take the shiny Holt toy away from JF. No Rutledge. No Moreland, Young, Reed, Fister & Davis. Maybe bring Nunez back. Maybe sign JD Martinez and Duda to squeeze HRam under 497 PAs and no 2019 vesting $22M option. Maybe, instead, we trade for Donaldson or Beltre and move Devers to 1B and keep HRam at DH. Maybe we sign a pitcher and then trade ERod and prospects for a real 1Bman or 3Bman. Maybe, maybe, maybe.

Link to 2017 Part III http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18323-A-Realistic-View-at-2017-Part-III?p=1102497&posted=1#post1102497

The 40 Man Roster: Eight Free Agents to be (with 2017 Luxury Tax cost): Young $6.5M Moreland $5.5M Reed $7.75M (about $2.6M) Nunez $4.2M (about $1.4M from Sox) Davis $6M (about $2M from Sox) Abad $2.0M Fister $1.8M Boyer $0.6M Total: ~$22M The 40 man Roster (luxury tax 2018 cost): [37 non-free agents on roster] $31.0M Price $22.0M HRam $20.6M Porcello ($19M Sandoval- not on roster/ counts against luxury tax budget) $13.8M Pedroia $12.0M Kimbrel ($11.7M Castillo- not on 40 man roster/does not count on luxury budget) $11.5M Sale (option) Total Under Contract: ~$131M Arbs --from MLBTR estimates: (year of arb) ~$9.1M Pomeranz (3 of 3) ~$8.2M Betts (1 of 3) ~$7.6M Bogey (2 of 3) ~$5.9M Bradley (2 of 4) ~$3.6M Kelly (3 of 3) ~$2.7M ERod (1 of 4) ~$2.1M Thornburg (2 of 3) ~$2.1M Leon (2 of 4) ~$2.1M Smith (1 of 3) ~$2.0M Ross (3 of 3) ~$2.0M Holt (2 of 3) Non-tender? ~$1.5M Vaz (1 of 3) ~$1.2M Wright (1 of 3) ~$0.9M Workman (2 of 3) ~$0.6M Rutledge (2 of 3) Non-tender? ~$0.6M Swihart (1 of 4) $52.2M in arbs Pre-arbs: Beni, Devers, Barnes, Hembree, Scott, Hernandez, Maddox, Travis, Lin, Marrero, Taylor, Velazquez, Johnson, Elias, Owens (+3 players from Rule 5 or Minor League FA lists) Total Pre-Arb Costs: $5M Total Estimated Cost (No Free Agent Signings Counted): $188M +13M Player benefits= $201M Luxury Tax Budget Limit: $207M Estmated $5-10M under the limit without any signings. Maybe if we don’t tender contracts to Holt and Rutledge we can come in around the $197M mark. Rule 5 (must be added to 40 man roster on 11/29/17 or risk loss): Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Trey Ball, Jalen Beeks, Danny Bethea, Jordan Betts, Ty Buttrey, Rusney Castillo, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Enmanuel De Jesus, Jhonathan Diaz, Willis Figueroa, Pat Goetze, Daniel Gonzalez, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Bryan Hudson, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Isaias Lucena, Danny Mars, Kyle Martin, Algenis Martinez, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Ritzi Mendoza, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Jhon Nunez, Justin Pacchioli, Yankory Pimentel, Jordan Procyshen, Hildemaro Requena, Jeremy Rivera, Fernando Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Chandler Shepherd, Josh Smith, Teddy Stankiewicz, Cole Sturgeon, Aneury Tavarez, Carlos Tovar, Jantzen Witte Minor League Free Agents (will become free agents in November, 2017 if not added to 40 man roster or signed to a contract): Jeremy Barfield, Brian Bogusevic, Bryce Brentz, Dan Butler, Ryan Court, Jacob Dahlstrand, Matt Dominguez, Conrad Gregor, Shawn Haviland, Williams Jerez, Kyle Kendrick, Deiner Lopez, Heiker Meneses, Edgar Olmos, Mike Olt, Mitchell Osnowitz, Tim Roberson, Steve Selsky, Jose Sermo, Aneury Tavarez, Herny Urrutia, Elih Villaneuva, Marcus Walden, Jordan Weems I won't get into some choices to be made this winter, as there will be plenty of time for that, but clearly our biggest need is a clean-up hitter. The position needed most is 1B or 3B, if we move Devers to 1B (perhaps prematurely) and DH. With HRam's option vesting for 2019, if he gets 497 PAs next year AND passes the physical. That will likely be an issue discussed too much this winter. Then there's the can HRam play 1B debate. Here are some possible FA signings that fit the need I mentioned plus a few other big names that we could sign and then trade who we have now to fill the corner IF & DH slots. 1B: Santana, Hosmer, Duda, Morrison, Reynolds, Moreland, Alonso 3B: Moustakas, Frazier, Y Escobar SS: Cozart (trade Bogey or move him to 3B and Devers to 1B?) 2B/DH/IF: Nunez DH/OF: JD Martinez, J Bruce, Granderson SP: Arrieta, Darvish, Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn Lots of choices, but not many great ones who play 1B. Let the debates begin...

It's not that simple. We'll have big arb raises and option raises to Sale and Kimbrel. Watch for the 2018 thread coming soon.

We reset the tax for a reason. What I see as the biggest problem is that there are no free agents that fit our biggest need- a 1Bman with excellent clean-up hitting skills. We could sign players to other positions and then trade for a 1Bman and/or clean-up hitter. We could go for depth and a DH like JD Martinez, Duda AND Nunez. We could trade for Donaldson or Beltre and move Devers to 1B.

You should win or lose with your best on the field. It was the right call. Had JF brought in Reed, in theory impossible, since he was axed, but yes he would have been an idiot-- which he already is.

Tough way to lose. The bases loaded- no outs- no runs was the killer. Bad strikes called--maybe 4 of them to JBJ and Pedey combined. Ran into 2 outs in one innings. 2 bad throws by Beni- luckily none led to runs. Like the pitching moves made by JF. We lost with out best out there. I hate thinking, "Wait till next year" so soon, but this team just had too many weak spots to overcome. Good core going into next season, but we need to win the off-season with some bold moves.

Makes sense. Maybe we trade for Donaldson or Beltre.

Usually, yes, but in terms of just a FA signing this winter, Moustakas is better than any 1Bman on the market.

Interesting quote. I'm not going to go back and look at the play charts of every game, but you are right, Sale was not involved in many blow-outs. May 7th 17-6 win. Sale only went 6 IP. May 24th 9-4 win. Sale went 7.1 June 19th 11-3 win. Sale went 7.0. July 1st 7-1 win. Sale went 7.0. Sep 9th 9-0 win. Sale went 6.0 Sep 15th 13-6. Sale went 5.2 Sep 20th 9-0. Sale went 8.0

True, and so was Bagwell, whom they traded rather than move to 1B. I'm usually fine with giving young players a long rope on improving a singular weakness, but this team may have to greatly improve several weak spots to be highly competitive next season. I'm not sure we can afford to allow 45+ errors at 3B and beat the Yanks again to win the division.

How the heck can you save a starter a month for the end of the season...............? If you gave him an extra day off more times a year than he normally gets, he'd have one less start that year. That might not be enough. If you could do that plus maybe take him out an inning earlier 7 or 8 more times a year, that might, in a sense, be the same as having one less start over a full season. Would both of these things be enough to make a difference in October? Certainly, the answer could be "no". Certainly, it could cost us the division or playoff berth. Is it worth even considering? is it worth trying next year? I will say that late season 8 inning start was not needed. I'm not sure how many other starts could have been shortened, and how that might have taxed the pen and messed up their effectiveness. It's not an easy decision to make. Sox brass might not even think it's worth considering, let alone trying next year. I get that.