moonslav59

Groome has a lot of value, but it depends on the receiving team's timeline plan. If a team is looking to build for a win in 4-6 years, then Groome would be a good choice. I'm not sure what the Marlins' plans are, but they say they want to hold onto Ozuna and Yelich, so maybe they are looking at 2-3 years.

I have no problem letting Devers stay at 3B to see how much he can improve, but we should not expect him to be anywhere near plus by the end of 2018. The learning curve could hurt our chances the next 2 years.

Duda on a 1 year deal gives him incentive to have a big year. If we get JD and let him play 1B when an OF'er is not resting, Duda could probably play 30 games at 1B and 80+ at DH....more if HRam flames out. If there's an OF or 1B njury, Duda plays FT.

If we are over the luxury limit, I'm not sure signing two big names is out of the question. I've mentioned Duda several times. He sucks on D but has great ISO numbers. At $6M/1, he's a great signing compared to Hosmer, Santana or Morrison. I could see us get JD, Duda and Shaw or Moose, Duda and Shaw. We might sign a mid level pitcher, if we don't sign JD and another big named 1B/3Bman (Cobb, Lynn, Holland...).

You make some great points, but to me, there are too many aspects of their signings that point to Moose being the better pick. Assuming MLBTR projections are in the ball park, here's what I see: 1) Moose with 5 yrs vs 6 for Hoze. 2) Moose with $85M vs $132M for Hoze[. 3) Moose at 3B & Devers at 1B is a much better defense than Devers at 3B and Hoze at 1B. I'm still not convinced on the offense, as our biggest need is power (look at the ISO differential) and not necessarily the OBP, which is normally viewed as much more important. I'm not downplaying OBP. I still think it'e more important than SLG%, but our need for a solid clean-up hitter is very significant, and when viewed as who is the better clean-up hitter, the choice is a lot closer. (Personally, I'd take Moose in this role over Hoze.) Also, with players in their prime, like both are, I tend to pay much more attention to the player's last 2-3 seasons and not earlier one. Hosmer has much better numbers 4+ years ago, and I'm hesitant to choose him over Moose due to what both did 4-6+ years ago. The numbers are very close from 2015-2017. One good thing about looking their stats is that they played on the same team, in the same park and basically faced the same pitchers. Stat Moose Hoze WAR 6.6 7.3 wRC+ 118 120 OPS .824 .822 OBP .359 .329 (The above numbers favor Hoze slightly, but our great need for power, might be enough to tip the balance towards Moose) Stat Moose Hoze ISO .221 .169 (a massive .052 differential) SLG .496 .463 (about the same differential as OBP) others... BAbip .273 .330 (Is this differential sustainable?) K% 13.8 17.2 D. R. S. -3 -12 UXR/150 + 5.3 -42.3 (OUCH!!!!) I still see Moose as the overall better choice, even before looking at the money and years. If MLBTR is close with their projected salaries, Moose is my clear choice by a wide margin. I'd still rather get JD or Stanton, despite their longer and more costly deals. We made the bed with the 3-4 year window and we're now down to 2-3 years. We can't change strategies mid stream and end up with worst of both worlds: No rings and a bleak(er) future outlook.

I could be wrong, but I think his contract lowers the return significantly.

Some interesting numbers from 2014-2017: (198 players with 1500 PAs) ISO .301 Stanton (1st) .274 JD Martinez (4th) .242 Lucas Duda (13th) .224 Jose Abreu (24th) .221 Todd Frazier (26th) .220 Jay Bruce (27th) .201 Mike Moustakas (46th) .199 Santana (50th) .196 Morrison (52nd) .187 Moreland (64th) .160 Hosmer (115th) OPS 4. Stanton .939 7. JD Martinez .936 16. J Abreu .883 40. L Duda .818 48. Santana .808 53. Hosmer .799 2015-2017 (232 players with 1000+ PAs) ISO 1. Stanton .316 3. JD Martinez .284 14. L Duda .248 34. Moose .221 59. Morrison .206 65. Santana .200 74. Moreland .197 125. Hosmer .169 OPS 7. JD Martinez .943 9. Stanton .934 44. Moose .824 48. Hosmer .822 52. Santana .813 54. L Duda .812 2016-2017 (155 players 900+ PAs) ISO 1. .309 Stanton 2. .305 JD Martinez (The two biggest power hitters are available)

1) Trade JBJ for prospects & Trade prospects for Stanton ($18M to luxury tax). 2) Sign Santana $15M x 3 3) Sign Bryan Shaw $7M x 3 1) Bogey SS 2) Betts RF 3) Beni CF 4) Stanton LF 5) Santana 1B 6) Devers 3B 7) HRam DH 8) Pedey 2B 9) Vaz C

See the post right before yours. Just don't make Hosmer your plan B.

3 team trades are not that complicated. Or, we just trade JBJ,and maybe Hembree and/or Holt for prospects and then trade prospects for Stanton, perhaps including one or two we picked up in the JBJ trade.

The only thing muddying the water is the fact that the idea of grabbing Moustakas and sliding Devers over has a potentially higher upside. Moonslav is right, that would be a savvy move, and it would probably give us a substantial improvement in overall infield defense to go with the modest offensive upgrade. The issue with Moose is, the offensive upgrade would be very modest indeed. Moose isn't nearly the hitter Hosmer is at his best, and we struggled all year long at generating offense, which is why we're looking for a big FA upgrade in the first place. -DOJI I understand how the 38 HRs by Moustakas this year could be viewed as an outlier, but Hosmer is not the model of consistency, and his 2017 season is kind of out of whack with his career, too. OPS is not everything, and OBP is more valuable than SLG, but we really need slugging. OPS 2017: .882 Hosmer (.179 ISO) .835 Moose (.249 ISO) 2016-2017: .830 Moose (.250 ISO) .822 Hosmer (.173 ISO) 2015-2017: Moose .824 (.221 ISO) Hosmer .822 (.169 ISO) It looks like Hosmer's 2017 could be more of an outlier than Moose's. All in all, Hosmer looks like a better all around hitter than Moose, and he's about a year younger, but we need a clean-up hitter with power, so I like Moose over hoze. The money and years commitment makes it a no brainer, to me.

Dyson as the 4th Of'er....maybe there are better choices.

What's the better plan? $17M x 5 Moustakas (Move Devers to 1B) $12M x 4 Alex Cobb $7M x 3 Bryan Shaw $6M x 2 Jarrod Dyson or $15M x 3 Santana $12M x 4 Akex Cobb $7M x 3 Bryan Shaw $7M x 2 E Nunez

Do whatever it takes. What are your thoughts on this... $17M x 5 Moustakas (Move Devers to 1B) $12M x 4 Alex Cobb $7M x 3 Bryan Shaw $6M x 2 Jarrod Dyson

Shaw would be a nice signing. JBJ is one of my favorite players, and I'd hate to trade him, but if the return was good enough, then getting JD makes more sense. 6 years is a lot though. Of all these players, I kind of think Santana or Moustakas is the best for the money & years. $25M/yr and $150M/6 JD Martinez $22M/yr and $132M/6 Hosmer $21M/yr and $42M/2 Cozart $17M/yr and $85M/5 Moustakas $15M/yr and $45M/3 Santana $12M/yr and $36M/3 Morrison

Tanaka decides to stay with the Yanks- does not opt out.

Say it ain't so!

Deep down, I do "feel it", and it's making me physically sick-- maybe it's just all the Halloween candy. Signing JD quickly would greatly lessen the chances Hosmer is signed. Come on DD- get JD day one!!!!

I can see why Hosmer is high on some people's lists, but I am hoping and praying we do NOT sign him. He will get too many years, and he doesn't have a long enough history of doing 2017 well. Too risky. Santana has a longer history of doing very well and rates to get maybe half the years as well as less per year. BTW, MLBTR projects Duda getting $6M/1- about what Moreland got.

For argument's sake, let's say the Sox can spend $45M a year on free agents this year, and any free agent would sign with us, if we offered what MLBTR projects their offer to be, who would you sign? Complete list: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html $25M/yr and $150M/6 JD Martinez $13M/yr and $39M/3 J Bruce $22M/yr and $132M/6 Hosmer $15M/yr and $45M/3 Santana $12M/yr and $36M/3 Morrison $17M/yr and $85M/5 Moustakas $21M/yr and $42M/2 Cozart $26.7M/yr and $160M/6 Darvish $25M/yr and $100M/4 Arrieta $20M/yr and $100M/5 Tanaka $14M/yr and $56M/4 L Lynn $12.5M/yr and $50M/4 G Holland $12M/yr and $60M/5 Wade Davis $7M/yr and $21M/3 Bryan Shaw Red= MLBTR projected landing place I like the JD Martinez, Morrison, Shaw idea ($44M) , but I wonder if this would be better: $17M Moustakas $15M Santana $7M Shaw $6M J Dyson (OF)

The vast majority of big FA signings end up being big disappointments- many from day one. I'm not sure I'd use the word "amazing" to think some people feel Price might end up being one, too. I agree, if he does well enough to opt out, then it will be hard to replace him "in kind", but maybe we get someone younger or without the threat of his arm falling off. Of course, such a pitcher will cost more or not be as good. I get your argument.

Assuming he has a big year, there's still a significant chance he falls short of his pay the last few years of his contract, even in open market FA dollars. It's possible we could replace him with someone better at the same of less cot, if he ends up declining steeply after he opts out..

I'm driving that wagon!

I see nothing wrong with giving past GMs credit for some of the new GMs successes and failures, but trying to quantify it is very subjective. To me, I do not think making the Sale trade was all that difficult. Certainly, one could argue that Ben would not have done it. I get that, but there would have been no Sale trade without Moncada and Kopech- two Ben guys. Ben deserves some of the "credit" for DD having the resources to pull the trigger on that trade 9and others).

Theo 5.3 Betts 3.2 Bogey 2.3 JBJ 1.9 Pedey 1.6 Vaz 1.0 Barnes 0.4 Lin Ben 2.2 Beni 2.1 ERod 2.0 Porcello 0.9 Devers 0.7 Kelly 0.5 Hembree 0.3 Leon DD 7.7 Sale 3.3 Kimbrel 3.1 Pom 1.5 Price 1.4 Fister 1.2 Nunez 0.4 Boyer' 0.3 Abad 0.3 Maddox Now, one could argue that Ben traded away several big WAR Theo players and DD traded away many top prospects that Ben acquired in order to obtain many of our top WAR players.