moonslav59

I'm not sure we can count Wright out. I also think Haley or Elias may challenge for the 5 slot, especially if we don't sign anyone else.

Big parks actually produce more hits but less HRs. WHIP does not distinguish between a single and an HR. Walks are walks anywhere.

MLBTR reports... Steven Wright By Jeff Todd | December 22, 2017 at 6:44pm CDT The domestic assault case against Red Sox righty Steven Wright has been “retired,” as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reported yesterday. That puts him on track to resolution of the possible legal trouble that arose out of a domestic incident earlier this month. That does not mean that Major League Baseball cannot continue to investigate the matter and decide for itself whether to issue discipline under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault, and Child Abuse Policy. Indeed, the commissioner’s office says it is continuing to look into the incident, though of course there’s no indication at this point whether there will be any punishment forthcoming.

ERA- accounts for home park. A 90 ERA- is a 2/3 starter at worst.

He's 26. He's never had an ERA above 3.88 until this year. His career ERA is 3.50. He's worth a couple very good prospects. Cole has a 15.9 WAR since 2013--right between Cueto and Keuchel. His ERA- of 90 is just below Iwakuma and Keuchel[ and better than Archer. His 1.22 WHIP is between Archer and Qunitana. His 3.62 K/BB is 14th best since 2013 and beats out Lester, Felix, Cueto, Quintana, Lackey, Archer and Verlander. His 3.47 xFIP is 14th best in MLB since 2013. He'd be worth giving up a couple top farm pieces.

I couldn't agree more. Just because we needed a 3Bman, did not mean we had to go out and get arguably the best available 3Bman that winter. It's a crappy way to make a decision. Instead of signing HRam, Pablo and Masterson, he should have signed Scherzer. I could have understood signing HRam to play 3B and Scherzer, if they could have afforded both. Pablo was a horrible signing, and just about everyone knew it.

I'm not sure I'd try Martinez at 1B. He should DH, so he can get 700 PAs. Keep the OF intact. I guess we end up with a $28M Moreland-HRam platoon at 1B, with HRam DH'ing when an OF'er needs a rest. That doesn't leave much money for a 5th starter.

I'd give ERod and one from Ockimey, Beeks or Shawaryn.

So, this is where we stand right now... 1. Bogey SS 2. Beni LF 3. Betts RF 4. Moreland 1B vs RHP/ HRam 1B vs LHPs 5. Devers 3B 6. HRam DH vs RHPs/ Brentz DH vs LHPs 7. JBJ CF 8. Hernandez (Pedey) 2B 9. Vaz C Bench: C: Leon Moreland or Brentz 2 from Swihart (out of options), Holt or Marrero (out of options) SP1 Sale SP2 Price SP3 Pom SP4 Porcello SP5 (ERod DL)/Wright/Velazquez/Johnson Closer: Kimbrel RP2 Smith RP3 Kelly RP4 Barnes RP5 Maddox RP6 Hembree (out of options) RP7 (Thornburg DL), Scott/Workman/Taylor/Martin

So, how about Beeks & Chavis for Cole?

I'd hate to trade JBJ, but if we do (after signing JD) trade him for pitching, I'd at least understand the reasoning. Trading JBJ for prospects to flip for Abreu made no sense to me, so at least the Moreland signing took us out of the Hosmer & Abreu sweepstakes. Who know, maybe we get lucky and get JD for $110M/4. If nobody else is in the bidding, is there a chance we could get him for even less?

No doubt. I'd have no issue canning his ass, if he struggles or gets hurt again, but there is still potential there--much more than with Pablito. Let it play out. The easiest positions to fill mid season are 1B and DH.

Even that might not be enough, when it comes to passing the physical connected to any new signing.

I don't think a DL stint is all that is needed to scare maybe all GMs away from improving on the contract Price already has. While Price has said the doctors were amazed at his recovery, there will always be an elbow injury hanging in the air with or without a DL stint.

Yes, sometimes shoulder surgery actually helps a player get better.

Moreland was signed for two reasons: to add insurance for Hanley and to increase leverage against Boras. No, Moreland is not a game changer, but neither is Hosmer. Moreland is solid, will likely improve over last year if healthy, and is reasonably priced. Other than how Moreland played in the short sample size before his toe injury, I see no further evidence to support a better overall 2018. If we wanted to purchase insurance, I'd have signed Nunez over Moreland. We know Pedey is out and Nunez can back up several other positions as well.

fangraphs is fangraphs: the game is the game. They are not the same. Both have value and usefulness.

We also lost several nicely-pitched games due to a weak offense. We lost 14 games while allowing just 3 or less runs. I doubt any other contenders lost that many low scoring games. We were 13-14 in games when we scored 4 runs. (We were 30-23 in games allowing 3-4 runs, while we were 19-15 in games where we score just 3-4 runs.) I'm always for upgrading the staff, as long as it is from the top or middle. I dislike moves that aim to improve our #5 SP'er. One traditional way of attempting to improve your team is to first identify your weakest link and then to try and significantly improve that Link or links. It's not a "no brainer" to say pitching is our highest need area. ERod's injury is worrisome, but he wasn't a major part of this year's highly successful pitching staff. Price's elbow scares the bejesus out of me. Yes, I'd love to acquire a 1, 2 or 3 slot 3 SP'er to help ease those concerns, but I think a very strong case can be made that our clean-up slot was and continues to be our weakest area. The optimist's view of our staff. We should have Carson Smith for a full year and maybe Thornburg for a good chunk. Pom seems to have come of age. Porcello just needs to pitch to his average season. Sale is an ace. Price is the wildcard. We need a 5th starter, but I'm sick of the Masterson type signings. Our pen seemingly over performed this year, but with Smith, Thornburg and full seasons from Workman and Maddox we should at least be as good as 2017. Kimbrel Smith Kelly Barnes Maddox Hembree Scott Nice depth: Workman Thornburg Taylor Martin SP'ers as RP'ers (or SP'er depth?) Wright Johnson Velazquez Beeks Haley Elias Shepherd Shawaryn

While just about every returning player declined this year, except for Vaz, our 4-5 slots were incredibly awful. In a way, it was predictable. The players we put in those slots were not equipped to handle those roles. 4 slot: .240 27 93 (.322 OBP/.745 OPS) 5 slot: .219 18 71 (.303 OBP/..667 OPS) (The 6 slot .750 & 7 slot .693 didn't help either.) The 4 slot 316 PA HRam .747 219 PA Moreland .691 (much worse than HRam) The 5 slot 201 PA Moreland .764 157 PA HRam .773 In both slots, HRam was better. Yes, Moreland hurt his toe and could be better next year, but HRam's surgery could make a difference as well. I guess I'm just not really all that convinced that giving Moreland the bulk of the platoon PAs at 1B will give us the best results. However, the split numbers to support the platoon idea. Moreland vs RHPs/LHPs career: .779/.675 2017: .784/.684 HRam vs RHPs/LHPs career: .838/.897 2017: .769/.679 2016: 1.097/.796 For those who base most of their positions on the most recent season, HRam was actually better vs RHPs than LHPs and pretty close to Moreland's numbers vs righties. If we sign JD to DH and platoon Moreland and HRam at 1b, I'd be fine with the MM signing. If HRam is doing well next year, he can DH when JD plays in the OF. He still won't get the vest, which is good.

If you could also trade Gardner to open more spending space, then the "fit" is there.

You're right: once they started batting Devers 5th, HRam was demoted more often than I remember. Here's the season totals by power slots: 4th 43% HRam (This should not happen in 2018) 30% Moreland (Ditto) 11% Betts 11% Beni 4% Others 5th 29% Moreland (I hope we don't see anything near this in 2018.) 22% HRam 10% Bradley 10% Young 9% Devers 8% Beni 5% Bogey 8% Others 4-5 slots: 65% HRam 59% HRam batted 7th or 8th 5% of the season- mostly near the end. 57% up 4th 28% up 5th 9% up 6th Note: HRam batted 7th in 6 of 7 games near the start of September, but he never batted below 6th after after Sept 3rd, except to PH.

If it meant adding McCutchen and Cole, I think sacrifices could be chosen.

They only have one AL East team with less than 80 wins- The O's at 75.

They place us 10th in runs allowed.

fangraphs has us 3rd in RS/gm. That's a big jump based on what? Losing Young, Nunez and Davis and gaining a full year of Devers, I guess. They must project big gains from our returning players after nearly all declined last year from 2016.