moonslav59

If we don't get JD? We could get Darvish, but I doubt we do. I could see us going after Cobb or Lynn. If we do get JD, I could see us trading JBJ, Johnson and Hembree for Danny Salazar.

More on Porcello: let's take away the durability factor that WAR gives for more IP. Let's look at the top 75 AL starters (5 teams x 5 starters) by setting the IP at 90. (Note: I am not taking away from the value of getting 200+ IP out of Porcello every season: that value is enormous most years and still very valuable for a 2017 Porcello-like season, but let's look where he ranks performance wise among all AL starters.) ERA- (starter slot by groups of 15) 2017: 42nd at 102 (3rd starter) 2016: 4th at 72 (1 away from 1st)- (ACE) 2015: 60th at 118 (worst 4th starter) 2014: 28th at 89 (with Tigers) (low number 2 starter) So, he's been an ace, a #2, a #3 and a #4 over the past 4 years--never a number 5. That averages to a bout a 2/3 type starter. There are 78 AL pitchers with 300+ IP from 2014-2017 (combined). Here's where Porcello and Sox pitchers rank: ERA- 2. Sale 72 (ACE) 7. Price 80 (ACE) 16. Pomeranz 85 (Top number 2) 32. Porcello 94 (Top number 3) 37. ERod 97 (Number 3) WHIP 1. Sale 1.02 (ACE) 5. Price 1.13 (ACE) 29. Porcello 1.24 (Bottom #2) 41. ERod 1.29 (#3) 48. Pomeranz 1.32 (Top #4) Looks like Porcello is right between a 2 and a 3 starter. Now, for the durability factor: it's pretty telling that one has to lower the IP to 80 or 90 to reach a sample size of 75 AL starting pitchers. The 37th ranked IP starter had 145 IP. That's the middle guy out of 75 SP'ers. Porcello put up about 60 more IP than the middle guy! The 15 SP'er intervals and IP: 15. Vargas 179.2 30. Montgomery 155.1 45. Paxton 136.0 60. E Ramirez 100.2 75. Andriese 83.0

I'm not expecting a 2016 season from Porcello. I have said many times somewhere between 2016 and his career norm (which is better than 2017) is not a far-fetched wish. I'll settle for the career norm Porcello, which is maybe a low 2 starter high 3 starter by some standards or a low 3 starter by others. Having him as our 4th starter is a plus- not a minus.

If we get JD, I doubt we get a decent SP'er. If we don't we should be able to use some budget space to get a decent 4/5 starter.

I get that, but I think there is a strong negative connotation to being labelled 10th best out of 30. To me, there is not much difference between the top 10, or at least 3-10, so (IMO) I don't think the ranking diminishes my view on JBJ's value. He's also a very good base runner, Together, these factors help lessen the negatives associated with his inconsistent hitting. IMO, he has a lot of value, and other GMs know it and want him. I would not choose to trade a cost-effective player like JBJ. He still has 3 years of control remaining. Our pitchers need JBJ having their backs. .

I want us to try and get a solid SP'er. I think our pen is good to start the season. We can add to it, if needed mid season. I'm not sure what the spending budget is, but I still don't see a legitimate clean-up hitter on our roster. Devers may fill the 5 slot nicely, but he might be better suited for the 6 slot. To me, that is our number one priority right now.

Happy Saint Stephen's Day!

Not nessisarily, just because he may be the 10th best defensive CF'er, it doesn't mean he's way worse than anyone ahead of him. Plus, how many of the better defenders hit and run the bases as well as JBJ? Then, how many are up for grabs this winter?

We don't need Cy Young from Porcello. He could give us a 2017 Pomeranz-type season. If we also get Pom to repeat the 2017 Pom, we're looking very good before we actually get to the true two CY-caliber starters- Sale & Price. Yes, that's a lot of "ifs", but the 4 solid starters we have stack up nicely vs anybody elses, and if ERod returns mid season, we could be looking very tough as long as injuries don't bite us too hard. Our pen could improve a lot and take some pressure off our starters, and we could rest them more than we did this year.

JBJ did put together two seasons in a eow between .830 and .835. I realize both of those seasons were fueled by having one phenomenal month, but I agree. He could easily have a .900 or even .950 month by just having 2 great months or just not being so awful in the other 4-5 months. He could maybe hit 30 HRs some season soon,

It's UZR/150. I'm no expert on the formula, but it makes more sense to me, to trust it than observers like us, who watch other players just a handful of games each year. It measures all the balls hit into a players zone (the "Z" in UZR). Trained observers, who naturally will add a subjective element into the numbers try to determine that catchability factor of each ball hit into a player's zone. Based on the difficulty of the play, players are rewarded more for making more difficult plays than easier ones. Perhaps, because JBJ makes some difficult plays look easier, he gets dinged when he shouldn't, but still, the overall methodology and theory of UZR/150 makes a lot of sense to me. I know it is not perfect, but they rotate the observers to try an minimize personal bias, and all of the observers are trained and cross checked tested. There's no way I can possibly know for sure, if there are 9-10 better CF'ers in MLB than JBJ. It's just something I can never know for sure. Since I have watched just about every play of ever Sox dame since the early 80's, I can compare him to other Sox CF'ers and say with certainty that he is the best defensive Sox CF I have seen. Being ranked about 10th does not seem right to me, and UZR/150 should not be the only tool used to rank defenders, but there is a strong chance there are 11-12 great defensive CF'ers in MLB today- just as good or better than JBJ. Saying 10 or 11 are better does not make JBJ any worse than we all think he is. He's a great defender- he just may not be top 9 or 10.

I'm not for weakening our OF defense at two positions at the same time, but that's not the whole equation. It's not just the offensive upgrade of JD over JBJ vs worse defense at LF and CF; it's the solid pitcher we'd be gaining by trading JBJ. That plus the offensive upgrade could make the overall plan a plus. Again, I'd rather keep JBJ and work out a rotation plan where HRam does not vest, Moreland never starts vs a LHP and maybe JBJ and Beni sit vs some LHPs more than they would have without JD. PAs 1B: 450 Moreland v RHPs/ 250 HRam vs LHPs DH: 500 JD Martinez/ 200 HRam LF: 530 Beni/170 JD CF: 550 JBJ/ 150 Beni RF: 700 Betts/20 Beni 700 Betts & Beni 670 JD 550 JBJ 450 HRam & Moreland 6 players for 5 slots (Too bad HRam can't play 2B.)

JBJ is also one of our best base runners. With all the running blunders we had this year, losing one of our best will not help us in that area as well. Assuming we get JG, unless we can get a very solid SP'er for JBJ (plus maybe Johnson or Bekks), I'd just keep everyone but Brentz.

There's a reason GMs keep asking about JBJ. I get the reasoning for trading JBJ, if we sign JD, but we're better with JBJ playing CF than HRam DH'ing, and that's what the real choice comes down to, assuming JD signs with us.

Would anyone be blown away, if Betts, Devers or Beni had huge MVP type seasons? Hell, even Bogey, JBJ or HRam could have very big seasons. We have 3 Cy Young caliber pitchers plus a solid #2 like Pom. Would it hurt if Price missed the whole year? Hell yes, but we can win without any one player.

Well said, and I wouldn't be surprised if there really is never going to be another "mystery team".

I'd be more than fine with these 5 players missing just a combined 30-40 games, it's the long term DLs that will kill us.

We're a better team with JBJ in CF than HRam at DH. You are right, though, JBJ will bring a much better return in trade than HRam. The question is, does the trade upgrade outweigh the JBJ vs HRam upgrade? The other option is to keep both. JD can play FT by just giving Moreland and HRam 450 PAs each and JBJ 550.

Are we even sure JD is insisting on guarantees of OF play? If we told him he'd probably get 30 games in the OF with no injuries, might that be enough? I seriously doubt he's asking for more money to DH.

...and we have a full season of Devers, Smith, Maddox, Workman and Price.

I also see a squeeze, if we sign JD. Maybe DD has something lined up for trading HRam and saving a few million. I'd hate to trade JBJ, but we do need a solid pitcher, and I think enough GMs want JBJ to make them give up a very good one to get him (maybe we throw in Johnson or Beeks). If we sign JD and don't trade JBJ or HRam, he're how the PAs might be divided: 1B: 450 Moreland vs RHPs/ 250 HRam vs LHPs DH: 500 JD Martinez/ 200 HRam LF: 550 Beni/ 150 JD Martinez CF: 550 JBJ/ 100 Beni RF: 700 Betts Total PAs: 700 Betts 650 JD, Beni 550 JBJ 450 Moreland, HRam (no vest) Note: Beni has not really proven he can hit LHPs well. I'm not advocating a platoon, but we could sit him vs some selective lefties to get JD more time in the OF. We could also sit JBJ a little more often than we normally might do, move Beni to CF and get JD some more extra time in the OF. Career Splits: vs RHPs/vs LHPs .838/.583 Beni (only 164 PAs vs LHPs career) .735/.703 JBJ (JBJ did hit .766 v LHPs this year-- fluke?) .836/.921 JD Martinez .833/.859 Betts .779/.675 Moreland .838/.897 HRam So, basically JD, Betts and HRam play vs all LHPs. 1 out of these three sit whenever a lefty starts: Moreland, JBJ or Beni. Vs. RHPs, when Betts and JD are not getting their normal rest, HRam sits. If JBJ is slumping and HRam is doing well, maybe JBJ sits some vs RHPs. 2017 Sox vs RHPs (75+ PAs unless noted) .935 Nunez .813 Beni .793 Young (weird reverse splits this year) .784 Moreland .771 Betts .769 HRam (another weird reverse split) .743 Devers .739 Bogey .732 Vaz .729 Pedey .713 JBJ (another reverse spli) .692 Pablo .673 Lin (59 PAs) .612 Marco (43) .612 Leon .536 Rutledge .518 Holt .425 Marrero (127 PA of futility) .290 Travis (35) vs LHPs in 2017 (75+ PAs unless noted) 1.074 Devers (57 PAs) .958 Travis (48) .929 Pedey .944 Marrero (61) .928 Betts .777 Bogey .766 JBJ .774 Nunez (47) .680 Holt (30) .748 Vaz (56) .732 Leon .684 Moreland .622 Beni .679 HRam .590 Young

I think it's all related. If we don't get JD, not only we can afford to get a better 2B solution and 5th starter, we will need to get much better at those positions to make up for a lack of a power upgrade. Maybe we can get a 2/3 starter instead of a 5. Maybe we can get Nunez, so we have someone to cover other slots, if and when Pedey returns. JD signing or not signing affects any further signing we are looking at. Signing JD means we go cheap at SP'er and probably don't even get a 2Bman, until we see how Marco, Brock and others look in April and May,

...or managing a budget.

It's all about JD. I think DD is doing the right thing by waiting it out and not bidding against himself. We are lucky the Yanks, Dodgers and others are all looking to reset the tax this winter. Play it for all it's worth. Once the JD card is played there will be a flurry of signings.

He already reached his potential- for three short periods of glorious time.