moonslav59

He already reached his potential- for three short periods of glorious time.

Kimbrel was great, but what was more "insane" was the rest of the pen minus their 3 top set up men all year: Smith, Thornburg and Ross (the most under appreciated RP'er the Sox had for the 2-3 year period before 2017). Barnes and Hembree were viewed as bums by many before the season. Same with Kelly. I'm hopeful we can repeat of improve on that production. We lost... IP/ERA/WHIP 44/3.30/1.237 Abad 41/4.35/1.548 Boyer 27/3.33/0.926 Reed 9 /7.00/1.889 Ross (Pirce RP'er IP to SP'er IP) We gain... Full season from Smith Full season from Workman (40 IP/ 3.18/ 1.210) Full season from Maddox (17/0.52/0.865) Partial season from Thornburg? Returning key FT pen arms: IP Pitcher ERA/WHIP 69 Kimbrel 1.43/0.681 (certainly "insane" numbers) 70 Barnes 3.88/1.22 58 Kelly 2.79/1.190 36 Scott 3.79/0.981 If the pen is all healthy, it looks very scary. Closer: Kimbrel RP2 Thornburg RP3 Smith RP4 Kelly (was out RP2 in 2017) RP5 Barnes (Was out #3) RP6 Maddox RP7 Scott RP8 Hembree (Was our #4) Depth: Workman, Taylor, Johnson, Velazquez, Elias, Buttrey, Martin, Poyner,,,

I don't think anyone is expecting the whole squad to improve all at once. I doubt anyone expected our whole (batting) squad, minus Vaz, to decline from 2016 to 2017, either. If our team was old, I could honestly say a further decline has a significant chance of happening. One could argue the odds are our returning hitters put up close to the same numbers as 2017 is high enough to win the plurality count vs decline and improve. I'd put my money on an improvement, even if just slight. Only Vaz, HRam and Pedey have no real evidence to argue they get better than 2017, although Vaz & HRam could, and nobody would be shocked. With so many of our key players just entering or coming close to "prime years", I think it is justified to expect improvement from most of the guys below. One or two could even bust out and have fantastic years. Age/OPS 2015>2016>2017 Beni: 21/.835 > 22/.776> 23/ ? Bogey: 22/.776> 23/.802> 24/.746> ? Betts: 23/.820> 24> .897> 25/.805> ? J.B.J.: 25/.832> 26/.835> 27/.726> ? The one who improved: Vaz: 25/.585> 26/.735> ? Our best bet for major improvement comes from getting a full season from Devers. I know we have lost the Nunez production (.892 in 173 PAs), but we will also lose a lot of PAs from near total non-producers like... PAs/OPS 276/.709 Young 188/.593 Marrero (should not see much action) 164/.548 B Holt (should not see much action or should do better) 118/.558 Rutledge 108/.622 Pablo 83 /.667 Travis (should not see much action or should do better) 66 /.709 Lin (should not see much action or should do better) 38 /.595 Davis (301/.644 Leon- Vaz should take 100+ of these PAs) This is over 1,100 PAs compared to Nunez's 183 PAs. Arguably, these 1,100 PAs will likely be made up by 350 more by Devers 250 from Hernandez 200 from Brentz (or his replacement) 200 from Swihart 100 more by Vaz I like the outlook of these "replacement" PAs btter than what we got from the list above. I do expect overall improvement, even when factoring likely declines from Pedey & Vaz. HRam is a wild card to me, and Moreland is about as predictable as the sunrise (.730-.790). I think it will be significant but not great. However, I do not see the massive improvement we need to be a top contender. That is why I am still for taking yet another leap of faith and overpay JD to be our DH and 4th OF'er (bye-bye Brentz- hello Swihart or Marrero who are both out of options). If we end up trading JBJ for a solid SP'er, I won't like it, but we do need pitching, too, and we are somewhat limited in spending by the second tier penalty phase.

I triple dare you!

Sanchez might be the type of guy we go after on a 1 year deal. Someone mentioned Garza. I'm not so sure about him: he's been bad for a long time. I'm pretty certain we add a couple vets or "projects" as depth. I like Velazquez and would like to see Johnson get a look at some point, but I do not have much confidence in anyone beyond Wright, and he may not even be here.

True, but we already know ERod will miss a big chunk at the start of the season, so we already know "health" is an issue.

The Yanks look better on paper than last year. The Angels do too. I'm not sure any other contenders have improved. I can't see why we should be favorites for a wild card slot, even with no "positive regression". I will say, I cannot see us having 8 or our 9 returning batters dipping like they did this year. My guess is most stay the same or improve. Even, if we add no new player, we will have Devers all year but no Nunez. No Young or Davis might be addition by subtraction.

So, Chavis, Johnson and Beeks for Cole?

Ominous.

Agreed, but the weird thing was his K rate was higher than his previous 3 seasons. The 5.1 BB/9 was way out of whack, however. 2017 was his best since 2011 and 2013. If you look at our ring years, not that we have to duplicate everything about those teams to win again, you'll notice stellar closer seasons: Foulke, Papelbon and then Uehara.

Agreed. Just curious, what are your thoughts on the closer influence on our 2016's division win?

I agree that Velazquez has the best chance at winning the 5 slot by April, assuming we don't add anyone and Wright is suspended or traded.

Easiest but maybe not easy. If we miss on our next closer, it could be disastrous. I do think Smith or Thornburg could be fine closers. Thorburg's deal expires after 2019: Smith's contract expires after 2020. By then, maybe someone else in our system has risen to the top. Free Agents to be... After 2018: Pomeranz Joe Kelly After 2018 or 2019 (vest?) HRam After 2019: Sandoval ($5M buyout for 2020) Sale Bogey Porcello Moreland Thornburg Holt After 2020: Betts Bradley Castillo Vazquez Leon Smith Workman Wright (Beni is after 2022 and Devers is yet to be determined.)

Agree. Devers and Beni re-signings are far away. The more immediate issues will be how to cost-effectively keep or replace Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Bogey and JBJ. The money "saved" by eventually losing HRam, Pablo and Castillo's contracts will mostly be eaten up by arb raises and option year salary increases. Can our farm replace some of our key players in 2-4 years? Ockimey/Travis for Moreland? Chatham/Marco/Lin for Bogey? Brentz/Tavarez/Mars/Brannen for JBJ? Chavez/Brentz for HRam Beeks/Velazquez/Haley/Shawaryn/Johnson for Pom and Porcello? Can Smith or Thornburg hold down the closer role after Kimbrel moves on? (I think they have one more year of control than Kimbrel, so where do we turn after they come up for free agency?

LOL. Larry laid out very well all that could go wrong with our staff. Now, the brighter more optimistic outlook (with Larry's view as the headlines: 1.) Price’s elbow (last we saw) has a tear in it. That thing is a pop away from costing him 18 plus months. Price says the doctors were shocked at how well his elbow improved. I forget the exact wording, but it sounded miraculous. Price looked damn good at the end of the season and could win the Cy Young in 2018. 2.) Rodriguez is going to miss the start of the season due to knee surgery! ERod was not a big factor in our pitching success of 2017, so hopefully, he returns strong when we need him most- the last 3-4 months of the season/pots season. 3.) porcello has a sinker that does not sink and gave up a ton of taters! Can we continue to roll out a 5 plus era every fifth day next year? Porcello won the Cy Young in 2016. Hoping for something between 2016 and 2017 is not too much to ask for. 4.) sale is one skinny dude! Can his bony arm continue to pitch 200 plus innings and have anything left in the tank for the playoffs! If last year was as any indication, the answer is no! We can learn from this year and work to rest him more next year. MLB has changed the schedule to allow for more days off. There's hope he can win the Cy Young next year AND be strong for the playoffs. He's the 3rd Cy Young candidate on next year's staff. Man, we suck! 5.) is Pomeranz a one year wonder. ( see porcello) How does his elbow, which was barking a while back, hold up next year! Actually, Pom has had 1 and a half "wonder years" not one. He was a solid number 2 last year and may need to just be a solid number 3 or 4 this year. 6.) Wright is probably facing a 30 game suspension and has not pitched worth a crap in over a year! Hopefully, we don't need Wright, but if he's healthy and still with us, he could help us immensely. 7.) Johnson is probably better suited for the pen! Agreed, and we can use a long man lefty in the pen. 8.) Elias would look good in a reds uniform. \ Elias should not be a serious contender for any slot on the 25 man roster, but it's nice to have some hopes on the farm. 9.) Velasquez - I expect a year two leap from him. He could be our unsung hero by November 2018. I agree with the optimism here, and we also have Beeks, Haley and maybe Shawaryn as further farm hopes. Our pen did very well last year- much better than expected. We lost Ross, who missed just about the whole year and Abad, but look at the upsides: Smith for the full season Workman, Scott & Maddox for the full season Barnes, Hembree and Kelly with one full year of pen experience returning Thronburg maybe returning during the season. Ben Taylor and possible converted starters (Johnson, Elias and others) as added depth. A stronger and deeper pen may help us feel better about yanking our starters earlier and saving their arms for October.

It doesn't (IMO), as long as we stay below the second penalty level... this year. The problem arises when we look to re-set again in 1-3 years, at a time when we will need to try and keep our best players as the reach free agency within a short window of time.

I do worry that we are following the same methodology as the 14-15 off season. Identify the biggest need area. Sign the best guy available that fills that need, regardless of risk or cost. While I do think JD's history and projected future are brighter than that of Pablo & HRam back then, the risk is still insanely high at a time where every dollar will count over the next 4-5 years, in terms of keeping our young players and guys like Sale, Kimbrel & Pom.

Not all player you recruit sign with your team. You take what you get. I'd wait it out on JD to see if we even have any serious competition. I don't believe reports on the Jays being interested. If they outbid us, I'll die of a heart attack on the spot. I'm thinking his price may drop to near what Upton got- maybe a little more.

I agree. Now, he has physical and emotional damage to come back from. I will add, not knowing the details of what happened, I'm not sure I want him back once I find out, and I've been one of his biggest supporters for years.

I don't either. I'm for signing JD. I was for signing Scherzer instead of Pablo & Masterson. I was for doing something big when we signed Price. I'm just saying that there is some hypocrisy in our own desires. We want our GMs to spend, spend, spend. The history of all big signings by all MLB teams is not good. When our big signings fail, we blame the GM, as if we were against signing anybody. Yes, I get that the vast majority of us were against the Pablo signing. We all want our GM to sign only big FAs that will not fail, when, in fact the vast majority do fail- many right out of the gait. I'm not expecting JD to fail. I did not expect Price to fail. I did not think HRam would fail, although I thought moving him to LF was a mistake. While I despised the Pablo & Crawford signings, I never expected such a massive failure. The fact is, our last 4 biggest signings have ranged from failing miserable (CC & Pablo) to failing badly (HRam) to looking pretty darn scary (Price). We realize the failure we made and look to solve those failures by doing what? Signing the next big promising FA in JD Martinez. Like I said, I'm all for signing him, but I have to think we may be just repeating the same mistakes again and again. I hope to hell we finally get one right. Not all big signings do badly. We're due for a good one.

In this day and age, you are probably right about Wright's time here. I love the knuckleball and think it messes with hitters- sometimes for extended times afterwards. Wright had been pretty consistent until his injury. Wakefield was actually more consistent than most other pitchers of his time- otherwise he wouldn't have lasted that long. Look at Porcello. When he "loses it", nobody blames the type of pitch he throws. Fastball pitchers often lose control. Breaking ball pitchers often lose control or amount of movement. Sometimes they "lose it" for long stretches. I'm not sure I see any evidence that knuckleballers "lose it" more than anyone else, especially not Wright and Wake, our knucklers.

I'm hoping we do sign JD, as long as it is not a massive overpay for 6 years, however, I realize we are sticking our neck out. I don't view JD in the same light as HRam and Pablo, but he'll cost more money and more years, and if he fails, we'll be hearing the same thing we are now about Ben and his big mistakes. If JD fails and Price's elbow "pops", one could argue DD made bigger mistakes than Ben and Theo.

Yes, I was. He has been wildly inconsistent from year to year, his defense has fallen off a cliff, and he's no better (or not much better) than many of the other available 1Bmen- some of whom are much cheaper. What got me the most was the fact that he has had one of the worst first base ISO numbers (power) in MLB. We needed power. 1B is THE POWER POSITION. Why fill it with a singles and doubles hitter at $20M+ a year for 4+ years?

Well, we did trade for Nunez mid season this year, so there is some merit to the idea of letting Hernandez get a shot (and maybe Quiroz, Holt, marrero or Lin, if he struggles) and then look for the next Nunez type at the deadline, if needed, and if Pedey is not coming back. I do think we should wait it out on JD. It seems like the bidders are dropping not rising in number. Get a pitcher and wait.

Yes, but what is interesting is the cry from us fans to "fix the problem". How? By signing another FA, this time to a 5+ year deal.