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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Maybe we disagree on what an "ace" is, but to me, if you are top 30, you're close to an ace at worst. If you are top 15, there is little argument. Archer's WAR rank in previous seasons: 11th in 2017 (4.6) 34th in 2016 (3.2) 10th in 2015 (5.2) 31st in 2014 (3.2) 2014-2017: 12th (16.2) 2015-2017: 8th (13.0) (Better than Price, Verlander, Lester, Bumgarner, Keuchel & Cueto-- all considered "aces".) The last 3 years, Archer has the 8th best xFIP at 77. He placed 29th in WHIP at 1.21. He placed 19th in K/BB at 3.80. I'd say he's an ace. His .325 BAbip this year is a major reason his numbers slipped. ,
  2. moonslav59
    Again, Fenway is not a HR park.
  3. moonslav59
    I prefer to keep Beni, too, but Archer is a true ace. notin is beginning to swing me towards agrrement.
  4. moonslav59
    I agree, but there is a lot to be said for obtaining a "known" value like Archer as well as knowing his contract is a steal! Beni is pre-arb, but his last 2 arb years will likely cost way more than Archer's cost, especially, if he turns out as good as we both think he will.
  5. moonslav59
    True, hardly any top free agents have signed, but there have been some hefty trades. I'm not worried. There's a lot of FAs left to sign. If the prices go down, we may have lucked out by re-setting this year instead of next, like so many other top teams seem to be doing this winter.
  6. moonslav59
    These were the innings caught this year: 771 Vaz 699 Leon 12 Swihart I could see this next season: 900 Vaz 450 Leon 130 Swihart That's about 60% for Vaz. We could also see... 1100 Vaz 250 Leon 130 Swihart
  7. moonslav59
    I'd say, if we don't sign JD, we'll go for a solid pitcher.
  8. moonslav59
    What major alternative to signing JD Martinez do we have? Sign a big-named pitcher? Darvish or Arrieta Sign Moustakas and move Devers to DH? Nope. Sign Lorenzo Cain and trade JBJ for Salazar? Nope. Sign Cobb or Lynn plus Nunez? Hmmm... To me, it's JD or Cobb & Nunez.
  9. moonslav59
    It looks great, but we already traded away our farm, and we need to keep our last remaining low-cost controlled players around. I realize Archer is low cost controlled as well, but Beni and Devers are probably the last two guys we should trade.
  10. moonslav59
    Maybe I'm biased, but I think too highly of Beni to trade 5 years of him for 4 insanely cheap years of Archer. It's a close call, though. If we signed JD and made this trade, I would not be upset. Keeping JBJ in CF adds some value.
  11. moonslav59
    You're probably right. Is there any package not involving Beni, Devers or Betts you can construct? Like JBJ, Groome, plus Chavis or Houck?
  12. moonslav59
    When I mentioned Beltre, I thought of Vlad, too.
  13. moonslav59
    I think you hit on something here. It's one reason why I liked having Beltre in the middle of a line-up full of patient, disciplined hitters. It messes up the pitcher. It seems like our current hitters are all from pretty much the same mold. We are too predictable and too similar in approach. Of course, we should not abandon the philosophy that OBP is the single best predictor or scoring more runs, but it helps to have at least one masher among all the OBP guys, especially in a day and age where mashing is becoming the standard. We don't have to choose either or. We can keep the patient OBP batters and just add one or two power guys and have the best of both worlds. Plus, it's not like JD has a horrible OBP.
  14. moonslav59
    For argument's sake, which of these choices look best to you? A) Sign JD Matinez and keep everyone. No SP'er upgrade beyond minor league deals. CF JBJ DH JD 1B Moreland/HRam 5th SP Wright/Velazquez/Johnson/Beeks Sign JD Martinez and trade JBJ for Danny Salazar CF: Beni LF: Martinez 1B: Moreland/HRam DH: HRam/Brentz 5th SP: Salazar C) Sign JD Matinez and trade JBJ, Chavis and Beeks (and more?) for Archer CF: Beni LF: JD 1B: Moreland/HRam DH: HRam/Brentz 3rd SP: Archer D) Sign Darvish and add no significant batter. CF: JBJ 1B: Moreland/HRam DH: HRam/Brentz (Chavis?) 2nd SP: Darvish
  15. moonslav59
    Interesting. Thanks for the links.
  16. moonslav59
    What would we have to add to JBJ to get Archer? Groome or Chavis plus Johnson or Beeks?
  17. moonslav59
    I don't want us to radically change our philosophy, but we have to keep opposing pitchers honest. It often seems like the most hittable pitch throw in many PAs was the first pitch thrown, and we took far too many of those pitches. It reminds me of the choice to bunt or not bunt. I hate bunting, but if you don't do it a few times, the opposing teams will start playing you not to bunt and move back, thereby lessening your chances for a hit when you swing away. Keep the opponents guessing.
  18. moonslav59
    So would Adrian Beltre.
  19. moonslav59
    career PAs - after count (OPS) 2902 after 1-0 (.916) 3474 after 0-1 (.716) As you can see, he started off 0-1 a lot more than 1-0. I'd like to see the numbers on non-swinging first pitches- how many were strikes vs balls.
  20. moonslav59
    He didn't swing that often, but you are right. Out of 6,743 career PAs, Pedey has only put the ball in play on the first pitch 361 times. He was HBP 6 times. He has an .860 OPS on those PAs. (.337 BA) I'm not sure how to find out how many times he swung at the first pitch, but I'm pretty sure he's near the lowest percent in MLB.
  21. moonslav59
    Here's an interesting factoid: A Sox player has HR'd 20 or more times only 13 times in the past 5 years. 5 in 2016 (38 Papi, 31 Betts, 30 HRam, 26 JBJ, 21 Bogey) 4 in 2017 (24 Betts, 23 HRam, 22 Moreland, 20 Beni) 2 in 2013 (30 Papi & 23 Napoli) 1 in 2015 (37 Papi) 1 in 2014 (35 Papi) Team HRs 208 - 2016 178 - 2013 168 - 2017 161 - 2015 124 - 2014
  22. moonslav59
    Taking the first pitch so often bugs the hell out of me, too. Pedey is the worst, and I think he influences others. BTW, in 2017, Pedey had a .668 OPS after starting off 0-1. (Career .716)
  23. moonslav59
    One should expect several "career years" from younger than prime players as they near their prime years. JBJ went from a .832 OPS in 2015 to .835 as he entered his prime stage. Not atypical. Bogey's OPS went up 26 points from 2015 (age 22) to 2016 (age 23). This is certainly not atypical. Also, his bWAR went down from 4.6 in 2015 to 3.7 in 2016. It went to 2.2 in 2017. Now, that is "atypical". Yes, Betts had his best-by-far season, and Papi had his most wildly successful season in a long time. Leon & Young had less 285 PAs. Holt had more PAs than both of these two and had his worst OPS year than his previous two seasons. You left him off your list. Pedey had a 5.2 WAR year in 2013, so 2016's 5.4 was not very "atypical". To me, the near total decline from 2016 to 2017 by all but Vaz is way more atypical than 2016's success stories.
  24. moonslav59
    Mexican Pacific League Update: Recently signed infielder (Jesus) Esteban Quiroz continues to see action as the regular second baseman for Mazatlan. He appeared in six games, going 4 for 23. Hector Velazquez was excellent in his second start of the winter league, giving up just one hit in four shutout innings, striking out three and walking one.
  25. moonslav59
    The season ticket office just reported a huge spike in activity!
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