moonslav59

... "I Saw That Guy Make An Error Once" Test... Like that one Iggy error in the playoffs that convinced many he was "all flash and no substance"..

(Alert: Kimmi and I did not bring this up.)

Maybe it all depends on the money. If JD says "yes" we go cheap at other positions. If JD says "no", we spend more at other positions.

Chavis is very close to ML ready right now. His only issue is his defense and position. He could DH day one.

If SF also needs pen help, why not trade JBJ, HRam, Johnson and Hembree for Belt and JS? (Assuming we will sign JD)

My bad.

I'd try to avoid trading Chavis. He might be our 1Bman or DH someday.

Apparently the vesting option does not transfer to a team HRam would be traded to, so that's a plus for the Giants. The Giants save money and get the OF'er they want. You act like JBJ cancels out JS, but the money saved is a huge plus that goes a long way at evening up the HRam for Belt part you broke it down into.

I'd trade Bogey, Beeks and Holt for Machado.

I have never come close to arguing Bogey is anything less than a solid plus player. I was only speaking of his defense, where I see him as being a bottom third defender and perhaps bottom 4th or 5th tier, if you choose to divide into 4 or 5 groups. Bogey's offense outweighs his defense and then some.

I was trying to show how asking individuals to rank defenders by position has a wider range that the range you complained about between UZR/150 that had Bogey 19th and DRS that had Bogey 30th. You were seemingly implying that such a wide discrepancy between metrics shows they are either not to be trusted or are as subjective as us individual observers seem to be. Maybe I mistook your position, but to me, the wide range between UZR/150 and DRS is somewhat puzzling but not to the point where I throw both out the window and go by just my own opinion based on a wildly skewed personal viewing sample.

No way I trade JBJ for a DH with less power than HRam, but if you add HRam and get back Samardzija, I'd do it. I'd even throw in Travis and Holt.

The Astros had a sucky pen, so maybe the trend will start to reverse itself as teams strive to be like the last winner.

What the Fielding Bible also shows is how individual voters sometimes vary widely on their rankings, which kind of supports my point about how the differences between UZR/150 and DRS for Bogey might be less than what you might find between two individual observers. On 2017 SS defense: 9 had Addison Russell between #2 and 4, yet one did not have him in the top 10. 9 had Brandon Crawford between #2 and 5, yet one did not have him in the top 10. One had Lindor #1 while 4 had him 7th or 8th. One had Javier Baez 2nd, while 3 had him 9th and the rest not rated. All in all, 21 SSs received at least one vote. Bogey had none. In 2016, 17 SSs got at least one vote: Bogey got none. In 2015, Bogey's one decent year defensively, Bogey placed 11th out of 17 SSs receiving votes.

Of course there has to be some subjectivity, but they rotate these dweebs, and together they watch every play of every single game... something us dweebs cannot do by ourselves.

I was going to go back and look at all the Fielding Bible rankings. Although each voter casts 10 votes, usually 15-18 players get one vote from someone. The fact that Bogey only placed one year, shows more evidence that he is not top 15-18.

My guess is, if you polled fans or baseball writers, you find a wide gap in opinions on where Bogey ranks on defense. My guess is you;d find a wider gap that 19th vs 30th out of 30. It does concern me that the gap between 19th and 30th is so wide, but that does not mean I'll throw both metrics out the window. They both are probably more objective and fair than my own observations. I've played baseball a lot in my life. I've watched thousands of games, of which over 95% involved a Sox game. I love defense and pay particular attention to it, especially SS defense. Does that make me an "expert?" Probably not, but I do think I have a pretty good idea about what tremendous defense is at SS, what is average, and what is below average or awful (by ML standards). Personally,, I'd guess Bogey is somewhere between 22nd and 28th on defense, but I really have no way of knowing, since I barely watch more than 3 games by some SSs per year. I feel pretty certain, he's between 19th and 30th as the two metrics place him. Probably UZR/150 ranks him higher than he belongs and DRS lower than he belongs. Perhaps one is way off. I seriously doubt both have him off to the point where he is really ranked 13th to 17th or "average".

One says 19th. One says 30th. I guess that's a pretty wide gap, but not as wide as one's personal opinion vs another's based on observations that involve a gross distortion of sample sizes viewed and probable homer bias. Let's go back to 2014 and include Bogey's decent 2015 season. Here are the rankings: 32 SSs with 2000+ Innings 20th UZR/150 (-1.7) 31st in DRS (-31) (Note: since DRS is a influences by more and more innings, Bogey would rank about 28th out of 32 in DRS per inning.) I think the numbers show he's bottom third tier at best. 2015 to 2017, his best sample size: 17th out of 31 in UZR/150 28th out of 31 in DRS These are the SSs fangraphs has as "average" from 2015-2017. Is Bogey really as good as these guys? UZR/150 12. Tulowitzki 3.5 13. Gregorius 3.4 14. A Escobar 3.0 15. Swanson -0.6 16. T Story -0.7 17. Bogey -1.2 18. Segura -2.6

Well, you said, "all the metrics," so I assumed you looked at more than just one. My guess is Bogey is somewhere between just below average (17th to 20th) and near the worst (27th to 30th). If you split the difference, he's maybe 22nd to 25th, which is where I'd place him based on my limited knowledge of other teams' starting SS defense. He's clearly no a plus, and I think saying he is "so-so" is being generous. Using only UZR/150, I guess being 19th out of 30 could be considered "s0-s0".

Not true. One metric have Bogey as being awful. DRS 2017: 20th out of 20 at -11 (29th out of 30 with 600+ innings) Only the injured Reyes was worse. I guess 19th out of 30 in UZR/150 can be called "so-so," but he's just 0.4 away from 22nd. (Adding 1.4 keeps him ranked 19th.) 2016-2017 combined: (33 SSs with 1000+ innings) 33rd in DRS at -21 (Only 4 other SSs are below -10!!!!) That's horrible! Only 9 other SSs are negative in DRS. He's 19th out of 33 in UZR/150 at -2.3- very close to the mean.

I thought you believed the closer role was vastly over-rated.

I think a bag of balls would do nicely. HRam plus $12-15M for a low single A prospect with little upside is what I'm thinking.

Some sample sizes are too small to judge anything from. He's pitched 7 times in Fenway: once in 2013 .750 OPS once in 2014 .659 OPS once in 2015 .599 OPS twice in 2016 .966 OPS - game 1: 4.1 IP 6 ER - game 2: 6.0 IP 5 ER twice in 2017 .924 OPS - game 1: 5.2 IP 1 ER - game 2: 3.0 IP 6 ER Yes, 3 bad games out of 7 looks bad, but I think harshly judging a player based on 3 games is not really all that fair.

Beni, Chavis & Johnson, maybe.

It's a close call. 5 years of largely unknown years of Beni at an unknown cost for 4 years of a largely "known" top 20-30 SP'er in MLB at a very economical cost. There are large pluses and minus to both sides of this debate.