moonslav59

Next year is year 2 of the 3-4 year window. When they were traded, just about all of the guys we traded were not expected to be in significant factors in MLB by next year, except maybe Moncada & Margot. That being said, Moncada would probably start at 2B this year, and Margot would be a solid 4th Of'er and starting DH until HRam is back, assuming no signings or further trades. Maybe Dubon could win the 2B job next spring. Many want us to sign JD or trade for Stanton- both OF'ers. Others want us to trade or sign a 2Bman this winter. The point is, nobody expected help from these guys in 2017. Even Devers came up faster than expected. Kopech might be getting close. Espi and Basabe and others were always viewed as farther away. .

Agreed, but we did have a surplus and not enough roster slots for all of them. We should have made one or maybe two big deals but not 3 going on 4.

Other than starting pitching prospects, our highest ranked players have done pretty well developing into impactful players. There was a bad stretch from about 2008-2011, but I'd say our farm has done well. Other teams must agree, since they have traded some good players for many of them.

I see it differently. I see a big black cloud of rose-colored glasses wearing fans in denial hanging over Kimmi and me.

I can't prove even one from Moncada, Kopech, Espinoza, Margot, Dubon, Basabe or others will ever be any good, so there's nothing to be concerned over. Let's just trade the rest of the farm now, since any prospect can be plugged in to replace high ranked one and end up being great. Love the logic. They bash us for thinking top prospects might actually amount to something then ask us to have faith that our current lower ranked prospects will save the day in 3 years. Makes sense, right? NOT!

Oh, we can keep quite a few of these guys, but the budget will be so high that we will need a lot of infusion of young talent from the farm to fill out the rest of the roster with better than replacement level players..

Our 2020-2022 years would look better, if we still had Moncada, Kopech, Margot, Espinoza, Dubon, Basabe and others. Of course, our present would look worse. It boggles my mind, which is not the same as being miserable, that you can not see that taking that amount of top young talent out of the system is not going to have a big influence 2-7 years down the road. I'm fine with arguing how much that might be, and if it's enough to project a cliff or not, but "many fans", as you like to say are in denial about the cost to the future these trades created. I loved the sale trade. I'm far from miserable. I believe ben would have made a trade or two like that one. You seem to choose to believe Ben was never going to make a trade. Neither can prove our beliefs, and I'm fine with giving up on that sort of speculation, but I think there is evidence enough to show there is a very distinct possibility that all these trades will adversely (I feel by a great factor) affect the team from 2020 or 2021 and onwards. The chances all those guys or even all but one fail are astronomical. Kimbrel, Pom and Sale will be long gone, and if we resign them, one can argue we could have signed them as FAs and still had our prospects to keep or trade for others. The Kimbrel and Pom trades look very good right now. I liked both players when we made the trades, and both have certainly lived up to their expectations, but their years of team control are limited. Sale is a different story. He's an ace making dirt for pay. I loved that trade, but even that one will very likely have future consequences.

You can bet GMs think about it all the time. I'm not hung up on what the Sox will look like in 2-4 years. I'm not "miserable" over it either. There are "benefits" to planning for the future, and that entails actually thinking about it and planning accordingly. I don;t think DD has done enough to plan for that post window period. I don't need a personal benefit to give me reason to think about it. I'm perfectly capable of really enjoying the present while having concerns about the future. It's not an either/or situation. You guys act like you enjoy the games more because you choose not to worry about the future. I don't see it that way.

I just threw his name out there. There is probably someone more dependable. I'm actually okay with Hernandez/Lin/marrero/Holt, as long as we fill our 2 of our other high need areas with top quality players.

Is this a possibility? Sign JD Martinez (LF)- move Beni to CF. Trade JBJ, Travis and Hembree for Carrasco Sign Santana (1B) Sign Bryan Shaw (RP) 1. Bogey SS 2, Betts RF 3. Beni CF 4. Martinez LF 5. Santana 1B 6. Devers 3B 7. HRam DH 8. Hernandez>Pedey 2B 9. Vaz Bench: Leon, Lin, Brentz & Holt (Swihart, Marrero) SP: Sale, Price, Pom, Carrasco, Porcello, Wright/Johnson (Velazquez/Elias/Beeks/Haley) RP: Kimbrel, Shaw, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Maddox, Workman/Scott/Thornburg (Taylor/Martin)

It's not about age: it's about years of team control. It's about higher and higher arb costs and the high cost or replacing or keeping most of our young stars and vets before or when they become free agents. We have a lot of our key players reaching free agency or high arb salaries in a very narrow time frame. Without a stocked farm, the cost is going to be enormous to keep our stars or replace them "in kind". We like to point at losing HRam's contract in 2019 or 2020 and Pablo's in 2020 ($5M buyout in 2021) as being enough to keep us strong, but I doubt it. Look how hard it is to sign free agents this winter, and we haven't even lost anyone of great value to free agency. Players reaching free agency: After 2018: Pomeranz Kimbrel Kelly (Maybe HRam) After 2019: Sale Bogey Holt & Thornburg After 2020: Betts JBJ Vazquez Leon Smith Workman Wright (Note: last arb year will be more costly than the year before.) There's not a lot of dead weight lost here. Almost all will cost way more to keep or replace in kind than they will in their final year here. 2021 Price $31M Pedey $13.75M Assuming a $210-220M budget, who can and should we keep with the $150M left over after the two we have locked up? Also, Beni & ERod will be in their last arb year and Devers will be arb eligible, so they will eat some of that $150M. My priorities look about like this at this moment in time: Betts Sale JBJ Pom or the like Bogey or the like Kimbrel or the like Vazquez The ones we don't keep, what prospect takes their places?

Moose is light years ahead of Devers on defense for 2018 and probably 2019 as well. He is NOT a great defender right now.

I was upbeat with Ben while you seemed to be miserable. I'm super upbeat about this team, especially since we obtained... Chris Freakin Sale! I am not optimistic about our team from 2021 to 2022. I'd hardly call that fatalistic or miserable, but I guess people with a long-standing miserable outlook might project it on others while pretending to be optimistic. (Note: this is not directed at you- just at the many miserable fans out there.)

The Cubs were a 103 win team- not 100. LOL

You said I was miserable and then said it wasn't directed at me. Even if your first post wasn't directed at me, your second clearly was, and that was the one that used the word "miserable". You acted like you knew my feelings then said you do not pretend to know people's feelings.

3 years of JBJ for 2 years of Abreu would likely get us Yollmer, too. I'm just thinking why not just sign JD, Santana and Shaw and trade JBJ for a SP'er (Carrasco at $26.5M/3 with 2 options counted?). C: Vaz 1B: Santana 2B: H Kendrick>Pedey 3B: Devers SS: Bogey LF: Martinez CF: Beni RF: Betts DH: HRam>Pedey SP: Sale, Price, Sale, Pom, Carrasco, Porcello, Wright RP: Kimbrel, Shaw, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Scott, Workman, Maddox>Thornburg

I'm sure DD would rather keep JBJ in CF and Beni in RF, but if we acquire Stanton of JD Martinez, then trading JBJ for a SP'er might make sense. I'm not high on Hosmer at all. He's not the answer at clean-up. He's not a plus fielder anymore. He'll want and get 5+ years. That's too many years to commit to a marginal 1Bman- a position of usual strength and power in MLB. I get the trepidation on Moustakas. I get not wanting to further deplete the farm to get Stanton. I get how signing JD Martinez to 6 years, at his age, and hurting our fine OF defense or benching HRam, so he can play DH is not ideal either. I'm wondering, if trying to go the shortest terms possible while still getting impact-ful talent might be the way to go. 1B Santana for 3 years RP Bryan Shaw for 3 years 2B Kendrick for 1 year then maybe help at DH (Duda) or a mid-level SP'er (Lynn/Holland). I'm not sure if this is enough, but there's less risk of a 4-5 year bust.

It wasn't directed at you, so don't make it about you. I don't pretend to know what you think. Well you answered my reply post back by telling me to "go on being miserable." It's hard to not read that as being directed right at me. Even if it was not at me, you are pretending to know how others feel. Sure, there is a certain poster who is seems completely down on DD, but that's hardly reason to respond as if there's a whole "army" of "completely negative" naysayers. I am just identifying what I interpret as a negative outlook by many people. This cliff was being identified as we were rebuilding into a competitor. The warnings started with the acquisition of Kimbrel and exacerbated with the acquisition of Sale. I enjoyed the heck out of watching those guys pitch this year annihilating opposing hitters. While they pitched, I was never concerned about impending cliffs although I might have thought that it will be great to watch these guys pitch for another couple of years. I think that fearing a cliff is an unduly alarmist outlook. Maybe I am just not as forward thinking as you are, or maybe you aren't forward thinking enough. It would be more positive if you looked further into the future to anticipate the success of our next rebuild. That way or wording it sounds more reasonable. At least you hint at there being some sort of "rebuild" needed as these vets' contracts expire. Look, I realize it is just about all conjecture. We could end up doing better than expected with the prospects we have right now. They could exceed expectations. We might finally get our first true top of rotation pitcher from our system since Lester. Maybe Chavis hits 30 HRs in MLB in 2020. I disliked several of DD's deals, but I also disliked many of Ben's moves, especially the big FA signinngs. (I even hated the Vic signing day one.) I'm not down on DD, but I do feel he chose to sacrifice some our future for the 3-4 year window. Whether saying it's a "cliff" proves to be hyperbole or not remains to be seen, but I'm thinking we should be a top ring-contender over the next 2-3 years, assuming we obtain a top power-hitting clean up hitter this winter. That makes being a .500 team in 2021 look like a cliff to me. I don't foresee the "rebuild" as being long and drawn out, since we should still remain a top budget team. Certainly, 2021 to 2022 can look like 2014-2015, especially if DD whiffs on a couple of FA signings like Ben did with HRam and Pablo. DD is going to need Price doing well as he reaches the mid 30's. Too many "ifs" to remain so optimistic, in my book.

Stop pretending you know how others feel. I'm far from miserable. I'm very happy about the team. I'm not a DD basher. I'm far from calling for his removal. That doesn't mean I have to deny the facts. BTW, I wasn't miserable after finishing in last place in 2015. It sucked, and I wasn't happy about 2014-2015, but I was very optimistic about our near and extended future. I did not see a continuing decline. It seems you were the miserable one, but I won't claim to know your past feelings. Let's see how miserable you are in 3 years. I could be wrong, but my guess is, you will be front and center on the dump DD bandwagon. I don't see us finishing in last place when the "cliff" comes, but it is going to be very very difficult to be competitive when all our young stars hit free agency in a 2 year window with a much weaker farm to rely on for help. that's not a miserable outlook. It's a realistic one. Sure, it's relying on a lot of speculation and conjecture, but I'm just not seeing a major influx of top quality help from our farm in 3 years. I guess, we could bring our budget to $250M or more, but I'll believe it when I see it.

It gets hard to stay competitive, when you have to sign free agents to replace arb guys making $10-20M but producing like $25-35M players. When you have little on the farm to provide a continuous low cost -high productivity infusion, you back yourself in a hole. I like our recent drafts and international signings. I have hopes enough can and will fill some key openings, so we can reduce our dependency on big free agent signings, but clearly we have much less to choose from now than we did 1-2 years ago. That has to make a difference 2-3 years from now and extending far beyond. Denying all this, to me, is being overly optimistic.

Yeah, I hate success. That must be it. We traded away dozens of prospects to create a team that won the division 2 years in a row. Keep your head in blissful sand. Our future is bright. Being concerned is folly. Being realistic is "complete" negativity.

The main reason I prefer Moose over Hoze is power. The defense is just an added bonus. 3B defense is more important than 1B defense, so even if you think Hoze is a decent defensive 1Bman, having Devers at 3B instead of Moose is accepting a horrible left side infield defense. With Pedey out and Hoze at 1B, our infield entire defense could be near the bottom of the heap. I'm not sure our plus catcher and OF defense can make up the difference.

That's the big debate. How much do you try for continued balance? How much do we give up on some of the future, when you feel you are close but not close enough to win a ring right now? I can see both sides of the argument as having merit, and I'm happy we at least built for a 3-4 year window, instead of a 1-2 year window like some plans end up being. I love competing every year, but I also come from the era that witnessed countless heart breaks of having great teams but just not great enough to win a ring. I remember thinking and saying, "Just give me one ring, and I'll take 10 last place finishes!" Of course, once we won one ring, I did not wish for 10 last place finishes. When we won our second ring in 2007, I got spoiled. Winning rungs is better than coming close but falling short 10 years in a row. I'd love to strike a balance, and I'm willing to have a couple losing seasons, if it means we are working towards being very highly competitive afterwards, and I truly believe Ben & Co. we moving us in the direction. I'd have preferred to let the 5 year plan play out, but now that we've changed the focus to a 3-4 year window, I'm not for changing the plan again and coming up short on both fronts. I hope we go for broke this winter without sacrificing some more of the future. I'm not sure that doable.

Well, if it's true that Larry was behind the Dodger dump trade (as well as the Schilling and Beckett trades), then maybe it wasn't as much of a "problem" as we sometimes try to make it out to be. I'm just tired of the mix and match criticism. I'm not much into the blame game, but when we do, we should either blame the GM for everything or just look at every move as an organizational decision and blame the whole FO not the GM. One or the other. (I'm not saying you do this, Kimmi.)

If we end up getting Stanton or JD to play LF, my hope is we get a decent pitcher for JBJ. We may have to add more to the package, but I can't see us trading JBJ for a 1Bman or RP'er or 2Bman.