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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. Or, Larry/Ben. We spent a lot of money that year- just not on Scherzer. HRam + Pablo instead of Scherzer.
  2. Not many Sox fans down here in Sugar Land, TX. I usually time it, so I watch most of the game by fast-forwarding commercials and end up watching the last inning or two live.
  3. True, but since we score more at home, we often get more PAs in the process, so, here is fair: 2003-2017 Home: 47,075 PAs 1,333 HRs 2.8% 202 3Bs 0.4% 2,932 2Bs 6.2% 7,478 1Bs 15.9% 4,937 BBs+HBPs 10.5% HRs per AB: 3.2% (1333 in 41567) Away: 48,036 1,486 HRs 3.1% 192 3Bs 0.4% 2,151 2Bs 4.5% 7,261 1Bs 15.1% 4,840 BBs+ HBPs 10.1% HRs per AB: 3.6% (1486 in 43036) Still, clearly more HRs Away than Home. Significantly more 2Bs at home and more singles and BBs at home. How about our pitchers? Home PAs against: 47535 1,169 HRs 2.46% 0.95 HR/9 9.6% HR/FB Away PAs against: 45702 1310 HRs 2.87% 1.11 HR/9 11.0% HR/FB
  4. Try watching the games on tape. Fast forward all the commercials.
  5. Baltimore will trade Machado, so no QO will be attached, unless they trade him to another team before the season starts. If not, the only thing that scares me is the $1M Int'l money lost.
  6. This is a boring winter. Now that Notre Dame football is over, there's not much else to pay attention to.
  7. If there's a buyout, then the option year counts as a year and just the buyout counts on the AVV.
  8. If HRam fails to vest and we decide to let Kimbrel (go with Smith/Thornburg) and Pom (go with ERod/Johnson/Velazquez/Beeks) walk, we could afford JD and Machado without hitting the second penalty level,/
  9. I'm all for hitting more home runs anywhere we play.
  10. Moving a 26th pick to 36th is not "death" to any team. The 90% tax is only on the amount over the second threshold. Neither is too harmful, when you're talking about adding Machado. It's the step up tax rates after year 2 that would hurt most, and signing JD and Machado pretty much assures we will be over the limit for at least 3 or more years. Maybe we miss out on the QO costs, if Machado is traded mid season (or traded to us).
  11. Very true, but even when we had big power teams, we still hit more HRs on the road.
  12. Well, it's $1M x 11 years, so it's $11M for not ever playing again, assuming a career ending injury. One could imagine $30M x 4 years with an opt out after 4 with $2M a year for the next 16 years- basically $152M/20, if he does not opt out. He can retire with a $32M payout over 16 years or opt out and probably make more than that on a 2-3 year deal somewhere, if he's doing well, healthy and wants to play into his old age. That's just $7.6M against the luxury tax.
  13. And maybe the best RH'd hitting player of all time, Manny Ramires, hit more HRs away than at home while with the Red Sox. I see nothing "absolute" about Fenway being an HR park for righties. In fact, the numbers show the opposite. Here's more.... Our pitching staff let up more HRs Away (104 to 91). RHBs hit 130 HRs in 4220 PAs (3.1%). LHBs hit 65 HRs in 1997 PAs (3.3%),
  14. Absolutely? Not really. You should look at the numbers before you make bold statements like that. Home HRs last year (Away): RHBs 10 HRam (13) 8 Betts (16) 4 Vaz (1) 4 Nunez (4) 4 Pedey (3) 4 Young (3) 4 Bogey (6) 1 Marrero (3) Total by RHBs: H39/A49 (10 more AWAY!) LHBs: 10 Moreland (12) 7 Beni (13) 6 Devers (4) 6 JBJ (11) Total by LHBs: H29/A40 (11 more away) Switch Hitters: 3 Leon (4) 2 Pablo (2) Total: H5/A6 I don't have the breakdown of PAs by RHBs vs LHBs at home vs away, but overall, RHBs had 3704 PAs and LHBs had 2336 PAs. RHBs 90 HRs per 3704 PAs (2.4%) LHBs 78 HRs per 2336 PAs (3.3%) 2003-2017 HRs Home: 1333 in 47,075 PAs (2.8%) Away: 1486 in 43,036 PAs (3.6%) H/A HRs 221/262 Ortiz 97/103 Manny 73/67 Pedey 65/68 Youk Pitchers pitch lefty and righty batters much differently in Fenway than other parks.
  15. If parks don't matter, why bring it up? Stanton's HR splits: 198 in 3171 PAs vs RHPs (6.2%) 69 in 949 vs LHPs (7.3%)
  16. Good lefties can use Fenway to their advantage. Besides, Fenway is not an HR park.
  17. This team doesn't need more left handed starters. But I do like Duffy as a pitcher. Technically, we're not "adding a left-handed starter. We're replacing an oft-injured LH'd SP'er in ERod with a more durable LH'd SP'er in Duffy.
  18. Alexander is not expensive. That's why he helps the deal.
  19. You gotta think the salary bubble has to burst at some point, if TV viewership and fan attendance continues to fall across all markets.
  20. I'd prefer to keep JBJ in CF, too, but having Duffy is a major plus, especially at just $13M luxury tax dollars. Also Alexander fill the LH'd pen role for 4 years we need at a very low cost. If HRam sucks, this move would hurt.
  21. Good points. Lucky DD and Henry want to win, and it's not just about the money.
  22. It was Travis or Ockimey, so not two prospects. The luxury tax hit for the KC deal is just about $3M. (Duffy's $13M minus $10M arb estimates for JBJ and ERod, yet the Royals save a little more in actual contract cost.) Assuming JD costs $26-27M a year, it only adds about $30M to the luxury tax budget--not bad for JD, Duffy and a decent LH'd RP'er.
  23. If we don't sign JD, and we choose to outbid the Cubs for Darvish, we should have enough money to do so (in theory).
  24. Easy to fix, since our new manager knows the "tell".
  25. I doubt the injury history of Darvish would keep anyone from buying a ticket.
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