I think MIN would prefer Abreu and his pre-arb status, too. I'm about 50-50.
Since Duran has sucked vs LHPs, this year, I no longer see Abreu being a platoon bat as any worse than Duran batting worse than Abreu vs lefties.
Duran is a better baserunner, but Abreu has more power.
Abreu is very good at RF defense, something very valuable in Fenway and other parks. Duran seems to have peaked on D in 2024 and should probably play LF with CF as his back-up slot.
Duran costs more in the next 3 arbs, as Abreu has one more pre-arb season. Duran adds an excitement not many other players can provide.
I'd give the edge to Abreu, and so would MIN, IMO.