moonslav59

Nobody likes watching a player on their favorite team swing at balls 2 feet out of the zone. We all wish he could hit better. We have differing opinions on just how low a batter can be, before he becomes a net negative value to a team. Maybe that has to do with how much value you are willing to assign to defense and base running. If Rafaela falls far below the norm on batting, maybe he can become a net negative player. Right now, he is far from that, IMO and the opinion of bWAR and fWAR.

If Rafaela is a blackhole because of recency, then DHam and Wong are not. Our 1B position is no longer a Toro-fueled blackhole, either. Just pick one criteria and stick with it consistently.

Even if he stays at .710 and plays GG type defense, runs well and provides decent middle infield depth, something this team has needed for nearly a decade, he's a clear plus player. WAR agrees by a landslide.

I know his OPS has been falling, recently, but why not apply "recency" to DHam, Lowe and Wong. If that's the criteria, then they are not "black holes." His offense is not an asset. I'm just saying he's very near the league norm and above the league CF norm on O. If that's "defending him," then so be it. BTW, .720 to .740 is above the league norm, and I thought you projected worse than that back earlier in the season. It was only after he was reaching near .795 that you raised your projections to slightly above the league norm and still said he sucks on offense. Maybe this is just semantic: to you average sucks, and being great of defense apparently doesn't change his overall value enough to pull him out of the sucking category. He doesn't suck, even just looking at offense. He is .010 below the league average OPS. Maybe you will end up gloating over a .700 or sub .700 end of season mark. Maybe not. He's proven one thing: he's streaky. He also seems to hit better when not in the infield.

Brez deserves more than a bow.

He has improved, a lot. (See my post on 2023+2024 vs 2025.)

The thing is, we are not sure he'd be a better hitter, if he tried to change his approach.

So many players explod eor fall off a cliff after 600 PAs. Dalbec was over .800 at the 600 mark. Rafaela seemingly failed to improve on his disciple all the way through is rise in the minors. He got labelled for being a high K/ low BB player, and rightfully so. One thing I look at is how a player is trending and how old they are. Over his first 660 PAs (2023-2024) he had a bad K rate of 27.1%. Many batters were worse, including some on the Sox. His BB% was a near worst 2.9%, and his K:BB ratio was among the worst in MLB history. Those two seasons confirmed what many felt he'd be, going forward. Then, he turned 24. His 478 PAs in 2025 is a pretty large sample size, and he's has shown some very positive improvement in both of the areas of major concern. His K rate went down to 19.2%. That's an almost 30% improvement! More importantly, his BB rate went up to 4.6%. That's nearly a 60% increase! Nobody know if he will continue to improve, stay at his current levels or decline, but why assume he will do worse as he nears his prime? His BA did not suffer by getting more BBs. It's almost identical to '23-'24. His SLG improved, as many players do when reaching 24-26 years old. His OBP went from .275 to .291- still not good but a marked improvement. I just don't get why he is the chosen one to bitch about.

Lots of other close games, other than 1 run games. We've had some bad losses, too. 11-1 and 14-2 are our worst, I thi

It just makes the situation that much sadder. I could be wrong, but I seem to remember that BAL and PIT did not even sell out playoff games back in the 70's. There seems to be something about those cities not being lovers of the game.

The announcers said it appeared he did not know the ball went to the backstop.

Good example. How many times have you heard me saying we need to trade Duran or Abreu? How many times have I suggested trading Rafaela? This kid is a big plus value for our team. CF is a very difficult position in Fenway and also in other parks. He brings a ton of value on D and is a decent baserunner.

Does he make more outs than we'd like? Yes. Do those more out contribute to losses more than we'd like? Yes. Those should not be the only two questions that matter.

While offense is more important than defense, someone just below the norm on O but way above the norm on D can be a damn good overall player, as WAR demonstrates. Also, Rafaela is one good game away from being average or even slightly above average on offense, if you include baserunning.

Lots of other close games, other than 1 run games. We've had some bad losses, too. 11-1 and 14-2 are our worst, I think.

He's pitching like a #2 now, and was maybe a #3 earlier in the season. Before that he was a #4 or 5. I hope he keeps this up. He looks locked in and focused, every start, now.

Most of the contract length covers what would have been his pre-arb and arb years, and he will make more under this deal on the front end. Players should appreciate that, as they can live the high life 3-5 years earlier, and if they invest their early earning well, they can end up doing better than waiting it out. He should also realize his pay is influenced by injury risk.

I'm not wrong. You talk about Rafaela every game thread, like he's the reason we are losing, while the team is actually winning. We are 67-53 in games he starts. He's hitting .768 in high leverage situations, while the team is at .735 (the rest is worse.)

Narvaez is one of baseball's best hitting catcher's this year. DHam is a sub and the 13/14th player on the 13 everyday roster. We have the best balanced line-up in MLB, if you look at most of our top 10 batters by PAs being over .740, .720, .700 or whatever mid level range you want to pick. DHam is 12th in PAs, and due to Mayer's injury and KC's demotion and our #7 guy traded (Devers,) #8 DFAd (Toro) and our #10 demoted (KC) he is playing more, but hey why not use the last few week sample size you bash Rafaela with and apply it to DHam? Don't look now, but he's hitting like did, last summer. Active players and their OPS (League avg is about .719.) .777 Duran 581 PAs .737 Story 533 (leader in RBI) .709 Rafaela 478 "Oh the Horror!" .811 Abreu 395 .906 Bregman 374 .727 Narvaez 367 (not a black hole) .850 Anthony 274 (should lead the team in PAs from now on) .830 Romy 244 (another guy you think is bad) .573 DHam 161 (.735 since June 19th & over 1.000 since July .827 Refsnyder 157 .503 Wong 136 (hardly play 30th.)ed & .761 since July 20th) We are the one team in MLB without a black hole, and you use that as a reason to say we can't afford a guy just below the league average in our line-up.

We just passed HOU in the standings. We now have the 3rd best record in the AL. TOR is just 4 up on us, and DET is up 5. Run Diff in the AL +110 NYY +106 BOS +93 DET +63 TEX +59 TOR +39 TBR, +25 SEA, +14 HOU

I hope Gio comes back. We need Bregman & CHapman back.

I didn't consider Chapman as a QO candidate, but I suppose he could be. I think he'd take a $15M contract with a second year option at $12M and a $3M buy out. Essentially $18M/1 or $30M/2.

And have a nice stadium, now!

This team is 4 GB the division lead in late August, and we have fans that want to speculate on Rafaela falling to .700 and magically turn into a sucky player on that precise AB. I'd normally laugh, but Fred is serious. This is what he focuses on, everyday.

When you play near GG defense at a key position like CF, and run the bases pretty well, hitting about 20 points below the league norm is not a weak spot.