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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Okay. They both add up and we are close to the tax line just bringing the same team back, even without Buehler & Hendriks. That is without Devers, too. We are over the tax line, this year, so the taxes will be at year 2 rates. Crochet $3.8M >$28.3M Anthony $458K> $16.3M Campbell $1.3M>$7.5M Rafaela and Bello keep the same AAV, but make $4.5M more in 2026. Duran cost $3.8M and will make $8M option or arb raise. Lowe cost us $1-2M, this year and if we go to arb, maybe $10-12M in 2026. Bregman has a $31.7M tax hit in 2025 and ___??? in 2026. Chapman $12M to ___??? Gio $19.3 to ___??? Losing the contracts of Devers, Buehler, Hendriks, Wilson and maybe Refsnyder puts a big dent in those increases, but I don't see a lot of added spending happening, this winter. I hope I'm wrong, but going $19M over the tax line might be a dream.
  2. moonslav59
    There are 237 MLB batters with 300+ PAs in 2025: Rafaela has the 34th worst BB/K rate at .24. In 2024, he was the worst at .10, which was historically awful. While 34th out of 237 is really bad, he has gotten better.
  3. moonslav59
    Indeed. I just pointed out that his is improving, while the leagues is declining. I doubt he ever comes close to even the average, but the trends are going in opposite directions. BB% '24>'25 League: 8.6>8.4% Rafaela: 2.6>4.6% (he went from being over 1/3 to less than 1/2 the league mark) OBP League .320>.316 (It was .337 in 2006.) Rafaela .274>.292 (46 below to 24 below) Nobody knows if the trends will continue, but he has improved, significantly.
  4. moonslav59
    Good point. I do think limiting Crochet's IP or pitches will begin, soon. he leads the AL in IP and is o.1 IP from leading MLB. This, after a worry about his ability to pitch 150+ IP in the bigs. Note" Crochet is so good and relatively "efficient" that he leads the league in IP, but he is 8th in pitches thrown. That still might be higher than planned, but you gotta do what you gotta do as a manager.
  5. moonslav59
    Part of me wants to say, "Don't change a thing, Ceddane!" Don't tinker with something that is working well. I also think having a line-up with varying approaches is a good thing. It keeps opposing teams on their toes and disallows a cookie-cutter plan facing our line-up. Rafaela is striking out less as the league is heading in the other direction. He's walking more, as the league is walking less. He's got just enough power to be about 4th on the team- maybe 20+ HRs, some year(s.) He runs the bases well and fields in an all out fashion. Cutting down on errors would help, but he's a huge asset on D. His ability to play 2B and SS in a pinch also adds value and flexibility for Cora. The kid is a winner.
  6. moonslav59
    Agreed, but I doubt we want him ending the season with the most IP in te AL, like he is, right now.
  7. moonslav59
    I'm trying to be optimistic, but when it comes to spending more, I'm not setting myself up for another letdown. As it stands now, adding all the extensions and extensions and keeping Bregman, Gio and Chapman will get us real close to the line. If we trade Abreu and prospects for Ryan, we would be at the line or over with nothing left for 2B, 1B (Lowe's $11M arb?) and pen additions. We basically need JH to spend to the second tax line. The fact that he agreed to pay prospects long extensions is different from paying large and long for big FAs or going $19M over the tax line in year two (w heavy taxes.) I'll believe it when I see it, but I think JH would like us to reset in 2026.
  8. moonslav59
    Dumping Devers nearly negated what JH spent, last winter. Of course I worry, if he'll be stingy, this winter. It's ingrained in our DNA, now and since 2019. The extensions kick in in 2026 and Bello & Rafaela's start increasing soon afterwards. Duran has an option or arb, which can be costly. We have to bring Bregman back and either Chapman or another top closer to just stay even with 2025. Also, Gio and to a lesser extent Refsnyder & Wilson. We can't just stay even. That never works.
  9. moonslav59
    I see your point. It's mostly what I read about KC's athleticism. I do believe he cannot be worse on D than Casas, but Lowe has one arb left, so Casas may DH, anyway. KC's best slot is likely LF or DH, assuming his bat comes around.
  10. moonslav59
    I think Mayer will be a damn good player, but the injury concerns are just too high for my liking. Our need for a 2Bman, and maybe a SS, once Story leaves, as well as 3B depth are major issues on this team, so trading away a kid like Mayer is very risky, but I'd be okay with including him in a trade for someone like Ryan, Skenes but probably not a Keller type. We have too many OF'ers, so I have to think one gets traded. We could also trade KC and/or Mayer and roll the dice with Romero and Arias as eventual depth or replacements to our infield. If we trade all three, our return should be very nice. If we add pitchers like Sandlin, Mullins, Early or Clarke, we might be able to make 2 big trades. The next step would be to somehow get Yoshida off the 40 man, but parking him in AAA could be an option. I think we keep Casas as a DH option, because his trade value is close to nil, but his potential is an .850- 30 HR guy.
  11. moonslav59
    We have a lot of extensions kicking in, next year, but few costly arbs. We lost the Devers contract and will lose some contracts that brought us zero or negative value: $21M Buehler & $5M Hendriks. On the surface, it appears we should be able to afford Bregman, Chapman, Gio and one significant FA signing or trade for a higher cost player, but JH is a big unknown. I'd like to think he sees the window wide open and makes this a high spending season in his decades long trend of spending in cycles. I think we are more likely to "overpay" in players going to MIN for Ryan than overpaying by giving Cease, King or Framber a mega contract with 2-3 years more than should be. Ryan is not a financial burden, so trading for him allows us to keep our players and maybe add a less costly right-side infielder via free agency. Hell, Alonso will cost less than Framber or Cease.
  12. moonslav59
    Maybe 2025 turns into another 2021- just a quick up season before going back to losing. I'm not saying I wasn't encouraged after 2021 and going into 2022, but I feel much better about our extended future, now than I did then. We had just come off that horrific 2020 season and had many of the same concerns: aging stars, big contracts expiring and needing to be renewed or replaces, and a stingy owner who did very little added spending for 2022. We may see JH gets stingy, this winter. I've given up expecting a big spending winter, but last winter did give me some hope. (Then, we dumped Devers, so now I'm back to flipping coins.) This is a fun team to watch: so was 2021. We still had JD, Vaz, Bogey, Nate and ERod... all coming up on paydays and some in decline, already. Our farm did not look great, especially with ML ready players.
  13. moonslav59
    Young MLB players sign these deals precisely to get paid more early and to hedge against injury or sucking.
  14. moonslav59
    You can be "athletic" and still be awful on defense. Duran was an example, earlier in his career. Another thing, KC cannot be worse than Casas on D at 1B. That's impossible. Casas can be the DH, after we trade or DFA Yoshida. (Dreaming, I know.)
  15. moonslav59
    I think we trade for a SP'er. FA SP'ers are too expensive. We'll trade for Ryan and bring back Bregman & Chapman. I'm not sure about Gio. He's gonna want big bucks.
  16. moonslav59
    I think we just limit Crochets pitch counts and when we get Sept days off, he'll get extra days here and there. It's not a bad idea to have him just skip a start on a rotation with a day off.
  17. moonslav59
    How hard can 1B be for an athletic guy? He'd probably be okay in LF, after a few months. I do think he still has high trade value and BTV agrees. I think we trade him and either Duran or Abreu. We might add some farm pitchers not named Tolle or Valera and get some nice returns.
  18. moonslav59
    If he could just have more discipline. It's the only way one can ever improve.
  19. moonslav59
    I shoulda said half inning. Glad I didn't jinx it. Too bad someone didn't teach Rafaela to have more discipline and lay off that pitch, right? LOL
  20. moonslav59
    Futrell pitched well, again (1.37 ERA) as Arias is heating up. (2-4 w 2B.) Rogers pitched well for POR and Castro had 4 hits. Early went 5 IP w no ER (3 unearned) in WOO's win. Campbell 1-4 w BB. Romero, Hickey, Toro & Sogard w 2 hits. Toro homered.
  21. moonslav59
    This is legendary with what we are seeing with Chapman.
  22. moonslav59
    This is a storybook inning. Magically, Rafaela is back to the league norm of .720 with one swing.
  23. moonslav59
    Just like that, we seem to be back to out old ways.
  24. moonslav59
    Errr... I meant DHam Single time.
  25. moonslav59
    DHam dinger time!
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