moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I've always thought any offense JBJ gives us is gravy, but I do see an upside with his offense. It's not fantasy. The guy hit over .830 for over 900 straight PAs (2015 to the start of 2017). He had his longest consistent streak of his career this year (from late May through the playoffs). I'm not saying I expect .790-.830 consistently going forward, but it wouldn't surprise me. If he has a couple decent years, he may get $15-18M in a contract.
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It's pretty close.... JBJ 2015-2018 (Last 4 years) .772 OPS Cain 2014-2017 (4 years before signing) .789 OPS Before his FA year, Cain had just one season with an OPS over .751 (160+ PAs) JBJ has had 2 over .830. I'm kinda thinking JBJ has more offensive "upside", if he can keep the consistency he found the last 4 months of this season (.787 last 98 games, not counting the playoffs).
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I'm glad DD sacrificed some of the future to win it all. It worked. The ring vindicates it all, but it doesn't erase the effects all his moves will have down the road. Yes, some felt he went too far. I was critical of a few moves and loved others. All his moves were designed to build the best team possible for a 4-5 year window. That's a pretty long window, and I am extremely happy for that, but the window was always going to close. The question is when, how much and for how long. To me, it's all about when (not if) we re-set the luxury tax. If I'm wrong about resetting at some point, then great! It's only my opinion, but I am pretty certain Henry prioritizes a re-set by 2021. He may even re-set for 2020, depending how things look after 2019, but I think keeping the window open for one more year (at max tax rates) willbe too appealing to give up. There's no hard feeling here. There's no lamenting or crying about an upcoming 1 or 2 year low point. I expected it. I praised the overall plan. What's not to like about 5 straight years of high competitiveness? If we end up with just one ring, it was all worth it, but 2 or 3 would be awesome!
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Lots of "ifs". Yes, it is likely some of my projections were low, but that's why I put the "+" next to the lowish number. I could certainly see... $35M Betts $33M Sale $30M Price $28M Bogey $23M JD $15M JBJ $14M Pedey That's about $180M for just 7 out of 40 roster slots.
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I'm assuming he remains consistent on offense going forward. Big if? Maybe.
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A lot depends on how much DD can spend in 2020. If Henry allows one more year within the window, we can probably stay a top 4 contender in 2020. To me, 2021 is the moment of a sharp downturn.
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I think 2021 is the reset year. Pedey won't leave money on the table. We can't pay all this... $30M Price $30+M Betts $28+M Sale $22+M Bogey $20+M JD $18+M JBJ $14M Pedey and keep some of the Porcellos, Eovaldis,and whatever closer we pick up. We'll also start seeing arb raises for Beni, ERod, and others. (We can compete in 2020, if we spend heavy.)
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I agree on the two year window, then a reset. It would be great to sign Eovaldi to 2 years, so we can reset without losing everybody. I doubt he takes 2 years, but if we offer him more, maybe he will. I big 3 year option buyout might help. Then, sign a Rp'er to 2 years and roll the dice.
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It sure is! Being a top contender for 2019 is gravy! Great job, DD. Super job, Cora! I'm lovin' the ride.
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I'm not counting on 1 inning from Pedey. We still won't need to address 2B until maybe mid season, if ever. Holt & Nunez with help from Lin should be fine.
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I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
WHIP Velazquez 1.340 Mexican League (1114 IP) 0.990 Minor Leagues (103 IP) 1.377 MLB (110 IP) Johnson 1.200 A+ (37 IP) 1.238 AAA (263 IP) 1.446 MLB (131 IP) K/9 and BB/9 Velazquez 6.8 & 3.1 Mexican 7.0 & 2.1 AAA 5.9 & 2.7 MLB Johnson 10.1 & 2.9 A+ 7.3 & 3.3 AAA 7.6 & 3.4 MLB -
It sure would be great if Pedey could return to nearly the same form he used to be, but it is far from likely. 1. Betts 2. Beni 3. Bogey 4. JD 5. Devers 6. Moreland/Pearce 7. Pedroia 8. JBJ 9. Vaz/Leon
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I just wanted a ring from the 4-5 year window DD created. I'm thrilled. We may even win another one. I'm fine with a reset year in 2021 (or 2020 if Henry wants it then).
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While true, if it looks like Pedey should be ready for the 25 man roster by opening day, he also must know the fragility of his status and how it all can change on a dime (or a slip on some wet grass).
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I wouldn't call is a "fear," but it certainly is a reasonable and significant concern. You need players and prospects other teams want in order to trade for good players. We will likely continue to spend, and if Henry never calls for a a reset in the tax, then we might stay highly competitive for several years, but I am pretty certain a reset is in the plans. With a weak farm and many starts reaching their last arb years and free agent years, a reset will not allow us to stay very competitive for at least that year and maybe one more.
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Unless we know Pedey's not going to be healthy, I think we wait to fill that possible 25th slot.
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Do you really think it is realistic to believe our farm will rebuild itself? That DD can build the farm up enough to start getting very significant infusions within a year or two? He's been drafting and signing international players for 3 cycles already. The rules have changed since Theo & Ben's days. I'm not entirely blaming him for the state of our farm, but I think my opinion goes beyond "perception" and more towards probabilities and "reality." Thinking the best Sox team ever was going to collapse based on a bad game or two here and there is not the same.
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If we just want defense at 3B, assuming in a back-up role, we have Lin. If Nunez can get his knee fixed, he's an upgrade on defense (maybe for late innings).' Devers is our starting 3Bman. I felt that even before the Pearce signing. I agree with Dewey. The wanting defense at 3B was a roundabout way of letting Devers know where he needs to improve. I saw some improvement last year, but he still needs to work on his footwork and arm accuracy. He's got nice reflexes and moves pretty quickly, at times. 3B is not a big concern to me, as I see Devers offense taking a big step up next year, which will more than make up for any slow growth on defense.
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Not the same. One is based on reality and probabilities. The other is based on paranoia and emotional instability.
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I agree. They may try something mid season (like we did with Kinsler this year), but I doubt we do anything this winter, except leave some wiggle room in the budget fior summer deals.
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Another month to the shortest day of the year.
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Had a nice feast with family and friends. The football was a bit boring. How many days to truck day?
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H a p p y T h a n k s g i v i n g !
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I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Yes, and he showed flashes of greatness in the minors. It looked like he had his BB/9 going in the right direction by 2014 in AA & AAA, but then frazzled. 26 starts 2.94 ERA 9.6 K/9 3.3 BB/9 1.16 WHIP He never came close to those numbers again. BTW, Johnson and Gabbard had some decent numbers, at time.... Johnson 2014 25 starts in A+ and AA 2.63 ERA 0.97 WHIP 8.3 K/9 2.4 BB/9 2015 18 starts in AAA 2.53 ERA 1.10 WHIP 8.4 K/9 3.0 BB/9 Gabbard's only good season in the minors was his 13 starts in AA in 2006 2.57 ERA 1.03 WHIP Career: AAA 4.51 and 1.52 AA 5.11 and 1.50 -
I get that, and actually made that point in this post, but at the time of the signing, Pedey had not missed much time or played poorly while injured much at all. The length of the contract was a gamble, and it looks like we lost. To me, it's still nothing like the CC and Pablo signings.
