moonslav59

I doubt they stay under after just resetting this year, but stranger things have happened.

A 4 year deal to Eovaldi or Kimbrel really puts the squeeze on the budgets for a 2020 or 2021 luxury tax reset. We'd either have to trade the one or both we sign or say good bye to one of our younger stars coming into free agency. I wish I knew, if Henry has the resetting of the luxury tax already mapped out, and if so, what year the reset is scheduled for.

I think Bogey really came into his own this year and is ready for a step up to a higher demanding line-up slot. His better power and speed/base running skills, to me, makes him a better 3 slot hitter than Pedey. Batting Pedey 6th or 7th lengthens the line-up, too, especially if he can maintain a .365 OBP.

I don't think we reset in 2020. I think we look at 2021 to do it. Your 2020 numbers miss a few things. $15M for player benefits Arb raises will be on top of this year's arb raises, which will be way more than $20M from the 2018 contract numbers. You mention we will need 1B, DH and SS, but what about replacing Sale & Porcello? Here's how I look at 2020: Luxury tax dollars 31 Price 24 Betts (last of 3 arbs) 14 JBJ (last of 4 arbs) 14 Pedey 12 ERod (3 of 4 arbs) 6 Vaz 6 Wright (last of 3 arbs) 5 Barnes (2nd of 3 arbs) 5 Beni (1st of 3 arbs) 3 Hembree (2nd or 3 arbs) 3 Workman (last of 3 arbs) That's $123M for 11 players. We need 14 more at the ML level and 15 to fill out the 40 man. At minimum cost, that's $145M in salaries plus $15M player benefits= $160M. That's with replacement level players in all open slots. That leaves $48M to upgrade some of those 14 slots with better players. Devers, Johnson, Velazquez, Brasier, Poyner, Lin and maybe a couple others could do nicely, but replacing Sale, Porcello, Eovaldi, JD, Bogey, Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, Holt & Thornburg while staying under the luxury tax is frightening. I don't see it happening until 2021, and if we keep many of the players listed above at more than a 1 year deal, and we want to reset in 2021, then bye-bye to Betts & JBJ.

If we could cover 3B and 1B with Devers, Chavis, Dalbec (Ockimey.Travis) by 2020, we'd save $13M on the Moreland & Pearce deals. That might be doable. We have nobody in the works to take over for JBJ or Bogey. Chatham is a long shot. It goes without saying nobody can replace Betts. Asking for our system to come up with a solid SP'er after over a decade of false hopes, is beyond wishful thinking. With Eovaldi a FA this winter and Porcello & Sale next winter, it's hard to imagine any other way of finding capable replacements any other way than by signings or re-signings. It's all about what the budget will be in 2020 and 2021, and if a reset of the luxury tax is going to happen by 2021.

I agree, the idea is a long shot. Maybe a third team might need to be involved- making it even more difficult. Maybe a team that likes Swihart and his 4 arb years remaining and has a big need at catcher will be willing to trade a better starter than Johnson for both Johnson and Swihart. Maybe the SP'er is making $2-5M a year, and that's a lot for this team, but not for us.

Agreed, Ideally, we sign Eovaldi and Johnson offers very nice depth as a 6/7 starter with HV and maybe Wright, if healthy.

It may very well come down to keeping Betts or Bogey & JBJ combined. Both choices will hurt, and we're not even talking about Sale & Porcello.

I want JD batting 4th. I'd be okay with a .370 OBP Pedey up 3rd, but I like Bogey more. He's improving and has more speed.

The idea was to get someone better than Johnson or Hembree and not so "fringy" as the other team builds depth and balance.

It's not easy, since many teams aren't looking to add out-of-options players with mediocre outlooks. I'm not an expert on other team's player talents, especially marginally better players than Johnson & Hembree.

Yes, I know those deals aren't uncommon. I suppose we could do something like that to build depth in the minors, but I'm thinking about how to get a solid RP'er or two and/or a starter.

How is this for a blockbuster fantasy deal? Trade: Pedroia ($40M/3) Castillo ($26M/2 not on luxury tax) Hembree (3 arbs) Swihart (4 arbs) Chavis For: R Cano ($24M x 5= $120M) A Colome ( 2 arbs- ~$7.5M + $???M) Cash: $8M x 5 years

...and are the Chathams and Chavis's good enough to replace the Bogey's and JBJ's of this team? I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see anything that promising to fill the holes we might have in 1-2 years: Porcello & Sale: Groome/Shawaryn/D Hernandez/Houk? (Mata too far away) Bogey: Chatham (A Flores too far away) JBJ: Decker too far away Moreland/Pearce: Chavis/Dalbec/Ockimey/Travis? (D Diaz & Casas too far away) This assumes we keep Betts.

His power has all but disappeared. His OBP is his best offensive weapon at this point. In 2017, his OBP was .369 and his SLG was barely higher at .392. He hits in too many DPs to bat second. I think batting him 6th or 7th works best. I like this... 1) Betts 2) Beni 3) Bogey 4) JD 5) Devers 6) Pedey v R/ Pearce v L 7) Moreland v R/ Pedey v L 8) JBJ 9) Vaz/Leon

Ithink trading two from Johnson, Hembree & Swihart for a better 5/6 starter or set-up man would solve a lot of problems.

Players with zero options: Wright Johnson Workman Hembree Swihart Leon Vaz Nunez Pearce Porcello

Big games next week: #1 Alabama vs #4 Georgia (Atlanta, GA Sat 4pm) #5 Oklahoma vs #9 Texas (at Arlington, TX Sat Noon) #6 Ohio St. vs #21 N'Western (Indianapolis, IN Sat 8pm) #2 Clemson vs Pittsburgh (previously ranked in top 25) (Charlotte, NC Sat 8pm) #7 UCF vs Memphis (unranked) (Orlando, FL Sat 3:30)

I agree, and it is good for ND to avoid Alabama in the first round, but I'm still not sure why Clemson is ahead of ND. Who have they beat? Clemson beat... #22 Texas A & M (by 2 points- will be higher ranked now after beating LSU) #20 Syracuse by 4 Wake by 60 NC St by 34 So Carolina by 21 Louisville by 61 GA Tech by 28 FL St by 49 GA Southern by 31 Furman by 41 They play #21 Pitt next week. ND beat... #4 Michigan by 7 (will be ranked lower after loss this week) #19 N'Western by 10 (will be ranked higher this week) #20 Syracuse by 33 (will be ranked higher) #24 Pitt by 2 (lost to Miami this week) Stanford by 21 (was ranked when we beat them) Wake by 29 (a decent team) USC by 7 Va Tech by 22 FL St by 29 Navy by 22 Vandy by 5 Ball St by 8

The big question is does he start the season on the DL, the 60 day DL (which prolongs a roster move) or active?

Buch, Douby and Koji did noticeably better in 2013 than 2012 or 2014, but Lester was better in 2014, Tazawa was better both other years and Lackey was about the same in 2013 as 2014.

The pitching ups and downs were more noticeable. ERA in 2013 in order of IP (2012) (2014) 3.75 Lester (4.82) (2.52) 3.53 Lackey (5.23 Beckett) (3.60) 4.57 Dempster (5.65 Cook) (4.43 RDLR) 4.32 Doub (4.86) (6.07) 1.74 Buch (4.56) (5.34) 1.09 Uehara (6.20 Melancon) (2.52) 3.16 Tazawa (1.43) (2.86) 4.04 Peavy (3.77 F Morales/8.28 Dice-K) (4.72) 1.81 Breslow (6.22 Bard) (2.29 Badenhop) 4.97 Workman (1.58 Atchison) (5.17) 4.86 Aceves (5.36) (4.11 Kelly)

Out of the 6 returning players from 2012, 4 had worse years in 2013 (Pedey, Papi, Nava & Middy). Out of the 4 players that returned to meaningful roles in 2014, all did better in 2013 than 2014.

We did get some up seasons from several players, but it wasn't as big a deal as many think it was. Let's a have a look-see: In order of most PAs in 2013 2013 OPS (2012 OPS) (2014 OPS) .787 Pedey (.797) (.712) .781 Ellsbury (.682) (.531 JBJ) .959 Ortiz (1.026) (.873) .842 Napoli (.812 AGon) (.789i) .831 Nava (.835) (.706) .801 Vic (.675 Sweeney/.674 Podsednik) (.812 Betts) .777 Drew (.663 Aviles) (.660 Bogey) .804 Salty (.742) (.611 AJ P) .696 Middy (.835) (.711 Holt) .772 Gomes (.807 Cody Ross) (.683) .885 Carp (.692 Youk) (.710 Cespedes) .785 Iggy (.705 Ciriaco) (.583 Drew)

It's pretty close between Ohio St and Oklahoma, and with OK playing Texas next week, who is better than N'Western, I can't see Ohio St squeaking in without help from Texas. The only reason I mentioned the #2 and #3 rankings between Clemson and ND is if Alabama loses to Georgia. That would make ND or Clemson #1 and their opponent would be different. Clemson ND GA AL or ND Clem GA AL is a big difference as one team plays AL in the first round. I doubt Georgia wins, but still...