moonslav59

He may very well drop off over the remaining season, but he has improved on his biggest faults and is still pre-prime. There is no reason to expect or project a downtick in his overall numbers. Rafaela did drop off at the end of 2025, but so did Bregman, but signing Bregman was okay? The other thing is hardly any player ends the season at their season high OPS. Ceddanne peaked at .756 in early August and ended up at .708, but that .708 mark was higher than most days of the season, and also, he ended the season with a 15 game OPS of .832. Can we really expect a late season drop off based on this? I can cherry pick his .730 OPS after JUN 19th. This seems fair... .702 first 78 games .714 last 78 games

That they should move towards their career norms, but the Sox players will continue to flop.

It's always hard for me to decide which major FA we should overpay. I don't want to speak for others, but it seems easier for some. There are a group of posters who try to think in terms of a limited winter budget and think it has to be play A or player B and never can be both. Another group feels the budget should or can be near limitless and JH should and can spend whatever it takes to fill the major needs the team has in the winter with some of the best players available. Most of us felt we need a major SP'er addition, a good pen arm added and at least 2 big bats with one needed at 3B or 2B and the other at 1B. Some wanted more than that, and some wanted us to break up the OF/DH logjam to better balance the IF vs OF disparity in talent and depth. It's easy to just say, "We needed to add X, Y and Z and we fell short of that," but when you look at what the options were and the history of major FA signings, the success rate is not high. Couple that with many poster's views on Brez's capability to make good moves, it seems sort of like contradictory or flawed thinking. I guess if you think we can and should be the the Dodgers East and can afford to swing and miss on multiple big signings in hopes that a few work out, eventually we will land enough additional players to give us the boost we need to get to the point of top competitiveness, it's okay to swing and miss. IMO, that is not going to happen, and the solution is not for JH to sell the team, unless we can be sure the next owner is committed to being the next Dodgers East. How does that happen? How can that be guaranteed? I've seen over 50 years of Sox ownership and management and know the history since the sale of Babe Ruth. I'm not so sure the next guys are going to be an improvement, I'm not for making changes just for change sake. Ousting Cora is one thing, but bringing in new ownership is another thing.

He could become Pablito x 2. He could also become an .800 to .850 batter for 2-4 years, a .750 to .800 for another 2-4 years and maybe end his contract between .700 and .750. That would fall way short of the money paid for him. I suppose he could be one of those players that have late career resurgences, but he does not strike me as that type of player, then again, who does when they are in their early 30's? I do think he liked playing with Boston and in Fenway. Had there never been tat blow-up, maybe he'd still be hitting pretty well, but at some point, he'd have been asked or forced to move off 3B. We all know, I wanted him moved to 1B long ago, but they kept him there, despite horrific defense. Something had to give, and when the moment came, he became a cancer that had to be removed. That's the bottom line. We don't have much left from that trade, and we've already dealt away most of the assets we got from SFG, but the money saved, if spent by JH and spent wisely by Brez can be a redeeming factor...or NOT. Devers for.... Hicks (dumped with Sandlin) for Ziehl Harrison (traded with DHam & Drohan) for Durbin, Monasterio and Seigler Tibbs traded for DMay Jose Bello is still in the system. Since Harrison and Hicks were traded with other pieces, it's hard to quantify what exactly we got for them. It's probably safe to say, "nothing special." What we do with the freed up money is also hard to quantify.

Yes, Alonso or Schwarber takes Yoshida's DH slot, but we'd still need a 2B/3Bman, and you keep mentioning IKF vs Alonso and IKF vs Schwarber. Now, Bichette or Bregman vs IKF makes more sense, although I wanted neither.

Of course it's a fact, but it's meaningless. If Gasper is 40th, he's taking the place of #30 or is placed at #41 not #1. The calculation is Gamboa as #40 or Gasper as the #40. Is that not a fact? Had we added Schwarebr or Alonso, we'd still have needed Durbin and or IKF. Certainly, JH could have afforded Schwarber plus someone better than IKF/Durbin/Gasper/Monasterio, but that is another issue.

Bichette was the youngest, for sure, but very far from being an "elite" batter. We can argue all day what "elite" is, but to me it's over .900 or maybe 5 straight years over .850 as the minimum. Bichette reached .840 once. His career OPS is .794, but more concerning is the last 5 years are worse (.770.) From 2024 to today is .724. Why should we view this guy as anything close to a savior for our poor offense, today? Just sign him because he turned 28? Bregman is a better hitter, but far from elite. He plays near GG defense and helps his teammates with advice, but why is he included in any "big bat" talk? He's worse than Contreras on offense, yet Fred and others used to list him as one of the targets Brez flopped on. He's 4 years older than Bichette, and most view 32 as on the wrong side of prime. He has a decent .839 career OPS, but that is not "elite." He was elite in 2017 & 2018 and had a few seasons around .800 to .821, including last season with the Sox. He's been dealing with very long slumps in the past few years, and has relied on some pretty long super hot streaks to salvage his end of year numbers. Like Bichette, his career .839 OPS tops his last 5 year OPS (.799.) It's just one point below .800, but even 800 is not close to elite. Since 2024, his OPS is .774. I'm not sure why MVP refuses to admit he's in decline, but he is. He is not elite and he may get way worse over his way too long contract. Schwarber and Alonso have defied the post prime curves. Both have been elite or near elite batters in recent years. They've actually had some of their best season post-prime. BTW, so has Willson. Alosno is 31.5, now. He has an .853 career OPS, si IMO, I'm fine with saying "elite." My concern is the age, but I'd have been fine with him for 5 years as our DH with Contreras at 1B for his 2-3 year remaining deal. Alonso's most recent 5 year OPS (.842) is almost the same as his career. It's been .823 since 2024, so maybe that is proof he has started his decline, and 5 years was way too much. That position has merit, too. Schwarber is the outlier. he's had a lot of great seasons, several cut short by injuries. The .848 career OPS can be considered "elite" in my book, and he recent seasons have not diminished that standing, despite the age concerns, but those concerns do not go away for a guy who just turned 33 and has a 5 year deal. His .867 OPS over his last 5 years is an uptick over his career numbers. The only one of these 4 guys to do that. The fact that he's the oldest of the 4 is surprising. What's even more surprising is his .891 OPS since 2024, when he was 31 to 33 years old. He shows no signs of slowing down, but at 33 the worry is there. Of course any FA signing is a worry or has some worries. The trade for Contreras brought worries, too. He's older than Scharber and turns 34, soon. His years of control makes the worry less, and one of his years remaining is a team option. His career OPS is .812, which is better than Bichette's but pretty far away from Bregman and the others. However, his recent 5 years (.809) and since 2024 (.818) numbers are better than all but Alonso (close) and Schwarber (not close.) He's not shown signs of decline, and while .809 to .818 is not "elite" by my definition, he's pretty close to Alonso and has been better than B & B, of late. Contreras and Schwarber would have been great for the offense, but we'd still have needed a decent 3Bman or 2Bman to have a complete team, so in a sense, we fell short two major players- one if we decided not to add Gray or Suarez to help pay or acquire an infielder better than Durbin + IKF. I'd have been thrilled if JH opened the wallet wide enough for adding Schwarber plus a better infielder and had it been someone like BLowe, the cost would not have been enormously more, unless we also added Suarez and Gray.

We traded for almost all of our better talent, but to you just depth signings are to be considered. That's a serious flaw. Stop mentioning Gasper and your points will make more sense. The guy was picked up on waivers as minor league depth and probably is better than most teams have for minor league depth. IKF is paid $6M, which is maybe $2M too much, and he has sucked on offense, but of he "returns to his norm" would be fine as the 26th man on the roster, and no $2M should cause his name to be mentioned. It wasn't IKF vs Alonso, Bichette, Schwarber or Bregman. It turned out to be Suarez & Durbin. Your point that they could have done both is valid and I don't disagree, except on Bichette and Bregman. (I stated that day one, so this is not about their slow starts. I too expect them to do better.) That leaves Schwarber, who I wanted a lot and Alonso, who I wanted before we snagged Willson. Willson is about as good at hitting as Alonso and a much better defender. He's much cheaper, but to follow your philosophy, that should not matter. I'll take Contreras as equal pay and 3 yrs vs Alonso at 5. Now, it's down to Schwarber vs IKF or Durbin, but he doesn't play the infield, so we'd probably have Durbin & IKF, too, so basically it was just adding Schwaber and dumping Yoshida, which comes at an enormous cost. Putting cost aside, again, I have to look at Schwarber's age and think that while I really wanted that bat, the length of contract was not just 1 year too long: it is likely 2-3 years too long. I guess only time will tell. Signing lesser bats (ESuarez/ Polanco types) would have shown more effort, but we'd have zero more wins now. Signing Okamoto or Murakami look like great moves, now in hindsight, but let's wait to see if pitchers figure them out and they become the next Yoshidas or better. Trading for Donovan or BLowe would have been much better than Durbin, and they would have cost more in trade, but how many of us pounded our fists on the table for them? I was begging for KMarte or Neto, later on, but I'm not sure either gets us to a ring. I have never disagreed with you on the need for JH to do more and to go large and long on someone. This year, I think Schwarber looked like the best target with Alonso and R Suarez maybe next in line. Had we gotten R Suarez and not Sonny Gray and added a big bat on top of Contreras (notice I did not say elite, as that is a loaded term that even you back-tracked on a while ago.) I agree with you more than you may think, but I disagree with the whole Gasper, IKF & Durbin noise, and note only 1 was really a "signing." Every team loads up with the Gaspers of the world, and he had nothing to do with any big deals Brez missed out on. Had we added a 2Bman or 3Bman, one from Durbin & IKF would likely not be here, so that one has some merit, but not for Schwarber or Alonso, the two you now mention the most, and I dare say you no longer mention Bregman and Bichette as much due to their poor(er) starts. That is speculation on my part, and I am fully aware my positions have flaws, too. Hell, I wanted KMarte. I'm not trying to say my ideas were better than yours, but the listing of our 25, 26 and 27 menon the roster over and over (IMO) doesn't help your case.

Pitching Leaders on the Farm (20+ IP) xFIP 1.47 Eyanson 3.61 Ziehl 3.81 Brown 3.87 Bennett 4.02 Futrell 4.08 Mullins K-BB% 44 Eyanson 23 Futrell & Ziehl 22 Mullins 21 Brown

Minor League Sox leaders in HRs: 8 Arias & YRod 7 Cespedes & White (just 85 ABs) 6 Godbout & Gasper 5 Gonzales, Azocar, Heyman, Castro & Encarnacion (just 84 ABs) Cespedes leads in XBHs with 19 (Azocar & YRod have 15.) Gasper leads in rbi w 27 OPS: Arias (1.109) Capra (1.018) YRod (.972) Cespedes (.968) Gasper (.947) Godbout (.918) White (.903) Gonzales (.854) Opata has 16 SBs (3CS) with a .384 OBP.

No, that players we didn't get will regress to their mean, even though they are on the wrong side of prime, but our players will not, despite most being pre or in prime. I'm sure you still expect Rafaela to crater, and that's just one example.

Early + Tolle 60.1 IP 41 Hits 19 ER (2.83 ERA) 24 BB 62 Ks

The 5th and 6th best AL teams are both 19-21 (SEA & DET.) The Sox are 1.5 GB those two. It's hard to believe just how bad the AL has started out 2026.

I hope it's not one of those injuries that needs surgery, but they put it off for 2-3 months.

That pretty much shows the flaw in your thinking.

They don't have to in order to know Gapser was not a major addition.

I totally agree, except I think Schwarber is elite, but was too old to give length.

Godbout hit his 6th dinger, but Phillips got drilled. Nunez & Heyman homered in SAL's win.

I'd prefer Durbin, IKF & Monasterio over DHam, Drohan and maybe Harrison, but I do think we could have gotten Durbin or IKF plus Schwarber or Alonso and been much better. I do notice you stopped saying Schwarber, Alonso, Breggie or Bichette. I don't think the $6M spent on IKF prevented one of those signings, and I know you don't either. I'm not sure why you coach it that way. You were fine with R Suarez, Contreras and Gray, but you wanted at least one more big bat. Some you listed (Schwarber & Alonso) are doing okay or well. Some are doing poorly to okay (Bregman) and some are off to horrible starts (Bichette and ESuarez.) Some of my suggested gets are doing poorly to okay, too.

It wasn't a signing, and certainly did not prevent another addition. We claimed him off waivers and pay him the minimum. Every team adds players like this and hope they never need to call them up.

I think every owner views their team as an asset. They are just not obtuse enough to say it outloud. I see JH as being more committed to spending than any past Sox owner, which isn't saying much. Of course we can and should call him out for not spending more, but I don't see the need to neglect the fact that he started spending significantly more. Yes, context is needed on that statement, as he lowered the bar so low, a significant uptick barely gets us near where we were in 2019.

At least we can't lose, today!

I take his points seriously, but do see some points that are up for debate, and he seems to ignore the major uptick in spending, much of which will be seen in later years as these extensions start increasing the yearly budgets. The Suarez contract and all of the young kid extensions will show large increases in spending going forward. Of course, if JH chooses to not replace lost contracts like Story, Masa, Gray and others, then Fred can or might be proven right, but for now, the spending has increased despite the Devers dump.

The bar was set so low with the lack of new spending since 2019, and much of the spending was on 1-2 year contracts, which almost by definition limits the quality of the signings or is based on high risk signings of former good/great players coming off injuries. Since the bar was set and maintained at such a low position for years, the $40M uptick in spending was and is still not enough, but ignoring it happened is something that does not need to happen to justify the point that JH is still nto spending enough. We are spending significantly more. It's still not enough. Both statements can be true, and aI believe they are. I'm fine with anyone disagreeing, but neglecting to at least mention the significant uptick in spending seems like an intentional choice made. The two semi-large contracts Bloom gave out were mere drops in the bucket within the context of lost contracts since 2019. The recent signings and extensions blow Blooms "drops in the bucket" away, even counting the Devers dump. To me, the big question is where do we go from here. Was this recent blip just an attempt to placate fans or a sign that spending will continue to increase until we get to top 5 competitiveness. I'm not suggesting that will happen. I have extreme doubts like most of us. I have no idea what JH has planned for next winter. He may still believe we can win without major spending. He may know we can't win without spending more and "lie" about his beliefs. To me, that doesn't matter as much as what he chooses to do: spend or not. Then, the next worry is that if he does allow major spending, can Brez beat the odds? The Suarez signing and trades for big contracts like Gray and Contreras seem to be good ones, so far, but none of those three are really major contractual outlays. The Crochet extension was and is, but that's the only real major outlay since the Devers extension thatw as quickly undone with his recent dump deal. This season is not over, and not because the Sox are showing hope or promise, but because the AL sucks about as badly as ever. The AL sucking should not take Brez and JH off the hook, for sure, and we need to play better to get to a point where we can actually believe a couple big winter additions can get us to top 5 status again. If we don't show some life, especially with our young talent, it might not even matter.

Bichette could hit his career numbers and still not be worth that deal. We should not spend huge money on players not even close to being elite batters. He's not a good defender either. At least Bregman can play plus defense.