The upside I see for the Sox is ERod being healthy, Eovaldi proving his stuff will translate over a full year and Devers breaking out. I guess you could also add the catchers position, although it’s not really a breakout if they move from horrendous to below average, but you’ll take it, I’m sure.
Going from .540 to .640 could offset JD and Betts each dropping .050.
Pedroia is a wild card and the board has treated him as such which is appropriate
If Nunez gets over his knee issue, we could get a 2017 type season from him and not need Pedey.
The downside I see is JD and Mookie still being forces of nature but not repeating 2018. This isn’t that hard to follow. JD was a DH and had over 6 WAR. Mookie was out of his mind last year. Both guys could fall back to .900 OPS seasons and be very productive, all star level players.
Both could easily do the same or maybe even better. Betts is still prime and JD is still in the window.
Chris Sale had the best 2/3 of a season he’s ever had. He finished the year looking like a shell of himself with a mystery shoulder injury that sapped his velocity. His downside this year is humongous mostly because of how high he has soared.
It is a concern, but so is Paxton, CC and Didi.
If he’s just good, that’s a big fall. Eovaldi’s health history needs no introduction, so while he was a trade deadline add and postseason folk hero, he could also be on the shelf. Price’s history of elbow woes hampered him for two seasons. He finished well, clearly, but he’s got some concerns there.
Maybe Porcello steps up bigly.
Xander has a career season. If he slides back a bit, he’d still be all star caliber.
You act like a player on the way to peak prime having a career year is some kind of fluke. Many players nearing prime have a few career years as the enter prime.
Pearce was out of his mind after the trade, likely not to be repeated.
He's been pretty good up to the trade as well. Here are his pro-rated numbers to 650 PAs since 2016:
2016: .288 27 75 (.867 OPS)
2017: .252 25 70 (.757)
2018: .284 28 107 (.890) He was .868 with TOR and .901 with us.
(He also had a .930 OPS in 2014.)
Of the 43 1Bmen with 900+ PAs, Pearce places 12th with a .830 OPS. Y4es, he's getting older, but one can easily view 2018 as not a fluke.
Kimbrel is gone leaving a pen in disarray.
Opinion. Just like it's my opinion your SS and 1B positions are in disarray.
This all adds up to one commonality that I’ll throw out there. The Sox offense will be stacked, still top 3, maybe number 1, but they won’t score as many runs.
They will score more. Book it.
The rotation, now shored with Eovaldi will be good when the top 5 take the bump, but there will be a fair amount of starts by your #6 and #7 starters. The leads handed to your pen will be slightly smaller than last year and likely earlier than last year, which is going to put a lot of pressure on the underbelly of your club.
Our rotation is better this year. There is no reason to think the leads will be smaller.
This is why the Sox are going to finish behind NY. The pen overachieved based on personnel last year.
Overachieved based on your projections. The Yanks overachieved, too.
They lost two of their top 4 relievers and added nobody to it. The pen losses will mount. The best way to beat your pythag is to have a dominant pen.
Opinion. There are many ways of winning games. You choose the pen as the most important, and we all know why.