moonslav59

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Devers is closer to 22 than 23, and we should not forget that he only spent ... 77 games in AA (320 PAs) at age 20 (.944 OPS) 15 games in AAA (60 PAs) at ages 20-21 (1.006 OPS) Having a .760 OPS after his first 730 PAs in MLB should be viewed as encouraging. His 2nd half OPS for 2018 was .781 in 123 PAs. There is a lot to be optimistic about, but of course, he could struggle.

With 4-8 teams lookin highly competitive every year, it's awfully hard to project the winner more times than not, and I've been wrong way more than I've been right, but to me, the Sox look like the best team, on paper, and the Yanks are second. The Dodger and Astros are not too far behind the Yanks.

Good read, and of course this could happen, but our team has very few players past prime, and those that are do not have a major role on the team. Some will regress- some will improve. Maybe full seasons from Pearce and Eovaldi will make up for losing Kimbrel. (Losing Kelly & Pom is a wash.)

Well, if they are planning on resetting the tax and having at least 1 off year to rebuild, then getting a mediocre SP'er for a catcher could make sense, but you are right, they starter will not be a good one. He shouldn't be any better than Johnson or Velazquez. The statement makes no sense to me. If he wanted to trade a catcher, he should have said he wanted to keep all 3. Now, teams know to just wait it out.

Devers hits a lot of HRs on traditionally not HR-type pitches. Here's one (go to the 1:30 time line...

And yet regression isn’t on your mind at all? Betts is going to continue this unrepeatable pace? Many times I have said we will have injuries and we will see some players fall short of expectations and decline, possibly even players not yet at prime years. Of course it is possible and probable that more than 1 or 2 players will do worse than 2018. We saw in 2017 how more declined than improved despite their age curve suggested growth. However, the same could happen to every team, even the great Yankees. Is King Kong JD going to surpass 1.000 OPS again? Good chance he does- good chance he doesn't. I'd say the odds are close to 50-50 that either Betts or JD repeat or better 2018 while the other one does not. Can Xander keep up his career season? Why not? He's only 26. I could see him hit .900 or even .950, but of course, he could fall back to .800 or lower. Some of his lower numbers from the past involved him playing through wrist injuries. Yes, you’ve got some parts that either were hurt or underachieved, but the core of your offense stayed healthy and played bonkers. Expecting that plus improvements in health and production could happen, but it’s far more likely that someone crucial slips back a little or spends some time on the DL. Betts & Bogey spent time on the DL. Pedey missed the whole year. Devers missed a lot of time. Nunez played hobbled. Vaz missed time. Sale & ERod missed time and were not the same by the playoffs. There's a ton of room for more production by these guys just playing more, even if their numbers dip slightly. Look, I get the argument that some or many can dip, but we are talking about what is expected, and you seem to expect the worst from just about every Sox player and the best from every Yankee player. I'm expecting growth from many Yankee players as the near prime, but I could easily ask if Judge will ever repeat his career best. (I actually expect Judge to have his best season in 2019.) I don’t think the Sox win 100 this year. I doubt the yanks win 100. It’s very difficult to be in a division with two other very strong clubs and win as much as our teams did last year. The reasoning was that Tampa sucked and then went on a late run that was crazy to get them to 90 wins. They’re going to be good again and probably from the outset. Yes, we’ve got the worst team in baseball in our division and a middling squad likely hellbent on rebuilding, so that’ll help rack up wins. But games vs BOS, NYY and TB are going to be dogfights and that’s 38 games of the schedule. Last year TB was a pushover til June and the Sox owned them early. This year, they’ll be good. Let’s just assume that those 38 games are splits. 19-19. In order to win 100, a squad would have to go 81-43 (65%) against the rest and that’ll be hard to do again. Cleveland is worse, and many AL teams did not improve on paper. I'm expecting 100+ wins from both the Yanks and Sox. I've been rong before, but these two teams are light years better than others in the AL (except Houston, but even they did not improve on paper).

I'll never want Hosmer, and not just because he's on and off. He is a good poster boy for not expecting the same results as the year before, like some here seem to do often.

Me, too. I'm not projecting better than 108 wins, but with so many of our players on the rise towards prime or in the meat of their prime, I think we could win 105 games and still be a better team than the 2018 team (or at least the same).

Many great hitters had high K rates. He walks enough for it to not be a major issue. Sox K% last year 27.5% Swihart 26.0% Leon 25.6% JBJ 24.7% Devers 22.5% JD 22.2% Moreland 19.9% Holt How about hard hit%? 44.9% JD 44.5% Betts 41.1% JBJ 37.9% Bogey 34.9% Moreland 34.4% Devers 33.3% Pearce 29.6% Swihart 29.2% Holt 28.0% Beni 27.5% Vaz 27.2% Nunez 26.4% Leon He's so damn young, I'm not sure why only the K rate should matter. He's a free swinger. He reminds me of Vlad Guerrero or Adrian Beltre at the plate.

All significantly higher than 2018's OPS.

I can't find a link to support my point, but I thought I read it somewhere, and Vaz always looks to the dug out for a long time between pitches. I'm not 100% positive.

We need teams like the Padres to increase our chances of winning and winning.

Exactly! "Shown little?" The guy has been a Yankee killer. He has 31 HRs and 96 RBIs in his very first 730 PAs in MLB at a super young age playing against pitchers many years older than him. Not many good to great players started out worse than this. BR lists players with similar batting numbers at age 21- here are a few of them: Ron Santo Juan Gonzalez Cal Ripken Willie Mays Jose Canseco Larry Parish Of course, Devers could underachieve or flame out, but I see more signs he busts out and becomes a great hitter.

Click the link, schroll down to Advanced. At the bottom is Steamers 2019 projection of an .805 OPS. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17350&position=3B

Yes, but the 100 best doctors could say he is 100% healed, and he could experience the same injury or a new (serious) one this season. (knock on wood.)

We all want Sale back. Possible budget constraints is the only thing that may make it a tough choice. I'd like to extend him, now, but waiting to see how his health looks makes sense, too. However, if he has a great season with 200+ IP, his price tag should go up.

Clippard signs with the Guardians for $1.75M with $1M in possible incentives.

I know.

Petrified! Hosmer sucks, and last year only solidified my opinion. Trade JBJ, Vaz & Johnson for Carrasco next year.

The team was 18-9 in his starts.

Maybe, if they trade JBJ & Vaz (to replace Porcello?) , don't re-sign Porcello, Moreland, pearce, Nunez & Holt....

Look how the injury to Groome dropped him off the charts. Espi is still "in play", but certainly the hopes have dimmed.

It's about resetting or not. If the plan is not to reset in the next 2 years, then yes, go for Bogey and Sale first and Betts next year. If we are looking to reset after 2019 or 2020, then signing Bogey AND Sale would greatly lessen the chances we can keep Betts. Note: just because we are looking extend Bogey and Sale, we may be thinking if one accepts, we'd not up the offer to the other in hopes of resetting and keeping Betts after 2020.

Yes, as is the case for most younger players moving towards prime. (999 PAs by Vaz and 672 by Devers) If you really are expecting .731 from Devers and .540 from Vaz, then I can't make any more points, but even that would be better than what their replacements gave us last year. I'm thinking .800 from Devers and .670 from Vaz is not a stretch. Steamer projects: .805 Devers (.805 THE BAT and .787 ATC) .672 Vaz (.659 THE BAT & .637 ATC) These numbers blow Nunez, Leon and Swihart out of the water.