moonslav59

The 15 minor league players get next to nothing. The pre-arb MLB players make about $600-$800K each. For 2019 & 2020 our pre-arb MLB players might be... Devers Johnson Velazquez Brasier Lin Poyner Lakins Feltman For just 2019 Beni That's 9 for 2019, plus we could add Chavis, Shawaryn, Dalbec or others. We'd basically have to fill these roles: Porcello (#3 starter)- Wright/Johnson/Velazquez? 1B (Pearce/Moreland)- Chavis/Dalbec (Devers from 3B)? Utility (Holt/Nunez)- Swihart, Lin, Chatham, Chavis, Dalbec? Maybe we need 3-4 decent free agents.

I get that, and I have said my assumptions are no better than those who state Henry will agree to go over by $20M or $40+M indefinitely.

Yes, but since we reset in 2017 and 2018, there will be an increase in 2019 and 2020- the two years we are talking about with Sale, Bogey and Betts, among others, coming due for their big paydays. 2018: 20% 2019: 30% 2020: 50% That's just for going over the first line. Keeping everyone would certainly put us over the $20M line and likely the $40M line, too.

You are assuming they will repeat their 2018 numbers in 2019. This is not a valid way to project future output, but if you want to go by that.... .731 Devers .677 Nunez .540 Vaz .511 Leon While the gain might look slight here, I don't think I'm being a homer to believe they can at least give us their career norms (or better) in 2019: .760 Devers .632 Vaz Both would be a significant improvement over their 2018 replacements' numbers.

$33M Betts $32M Sale $31M Price $24M Bogey $23M JD $14M Pedey $158M for 6 players + $15M player benefits= $173M with 34 more guys to pay. It won't be $300M, but we'd have to be over the max line to keep the rest of the roster good enough to compete (replace Porcello, find a 1Bman, pay for arb raises to JBJ, ERod, Barnes...)

We had a 5 year window (2015-2019): that's pretty darn long! Maybe we can eek out 2020 by keeping Bogey and Sale, but if we go to reset after 2020- bye bye Betts.

I filled in the blanks... SP Sale, Price, E Rod, Eovaldi, Wright/Johnson/Velazquez BP Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Workman, Poyner, Lakins, Feltman CF Beni RF Betts LF JD SS Xander 1B Devers 2B Dustin 1B Chavis 3B Dalbec C Vazquez

I can't see how we can get under the first luxury tax line with Sale, Bogey, Betts, JD and Price. Where did I go wrong? 2020 Trade JBJ & Vaz for a low cost 5th starter. Do not resign FAs to be Porcello, Nunez, Holt and Thornburg 33 Sale 31 Price ~28M Betts (last arb) ~23M Bogey (re-sign) 22 JDM 17 Eovaldi 14 Pedey $168M in 7 players ~7 ERod (3rd of 4 arbs) ~4 Beni (1st of 3) ~3 Barnes (2 of 3) ~2 Hembree (2 of 3) ~2 Wright (3rd of 3) ~2 Leon (4th of 4) ~2 Swihart (2 of 4) add $22M add $15M player benefits $205M Total for 14 players under contract and projected arbs. The 2020 luxury tax line is $208M. We can argue about going or not going over the first line next year, but my question was how can we keep all these guys AND stay under.

It was also the window to win a ring. When that window closes, hopefully only for 1 year, then the reset makes more sense.

Plus, these guys only started these many games out of the last 64: 0 Pedey 12 Vaz 28 Devers

Although the great start to 2018, and another great run in May to early June, the Sox still went 40-24 in it's last 64 games. This happened despite Sale only starting 7 games and ERod 4. This happened despite Kimbrel's WHIP going from 0.885 to 1.200 in the last 64 games (not counting his horrendous playoff WHIP). This team showed the ability to play .625 ball with a mediocre Kimbrel and basically no Sale or ERod.

Yes, so how can the Yanks possibly win with a below average 1Bman? A position the rest of the league gets big offense from? If Sale is toast due to his health issues at the end of 2018, then the Yankee SS position is toast, too. How can you win the AL East with the 1B and SS positions being abject failures?

I had hoped all along that the Yanks got him.

Depending on his health this year, yes, but I put him in the same category as Bogey. If Bogey looks like 2017 and not 2018 this year, he's not 100% either.

He did see a big jump, but a positive trend had been established for 3 seasons in a row. Hits/9: 11.7> 8.4> 7.4> 6.9 The improvement in 2018 was less than any other year. K/9 8.0> 8.2> 9.6> 10.7> 14.0 (The only area of a 2018 spike. K/BB 2.3> 3.0> 3.1 (Nothing out of wach with 2018 here due to more BB/9 in 2018.) FIP 5.23> 3.72> 3.33> 2.71 (Pretty steady improvement with a bigger jump between 2015 and 2016 than 2017 to 2018.) HR/9 1.9> 0.8> 0.9>0.7 (Pretty steady over the last 3 years.) BAbip .351> .318> .298> .321 (Career .322) Actually a pretty big jump over his previous 2 years might suggest he did worse than he could have, although his LD% did go up.) GB% 31%> 39%> 46%> 49%> 53% (Steady growth) I'm not seeing any evidence that 2018 was an outlier, except for the huge K/9 jump, but even that jump was part of a steady upward trend.

Well, they are seeking a Sale extension, so one could argue he is a high priority.)

I'm not sure anyone of us know what Henry feels about resetting or staying below this line or that. Personally, I think it makes sense to reset after 2019 or 2020. Even staying under the $20M line brings a larger and larger tax as consecutive years build up. Of course, it make s sense to reset, if you want to avoid stiff taxes. To just shrug off that idea is making an assumption not supported by anything. (I understand how I have sounded the same with my "will reset mantra.") If he sets the line at $19.9M over the luxury tax, then yes, we can keep Betts, Boget & Sale, but the rest of our roster will be hard to fill in with above average players. I don't see our farm doing much of that over the next 1-3 years.

True, and if Brasier closes, Barnes appears to be as good a set up man as anyone else. He's improved for 3 straight seasons and looked really good last year.

He keeps confusing weakest area to a weak area. Average in one area is not a death knell.

How was a pen with no depth able to overcome Kelly's mid season meltdown, Kimbrel's post season meltdown and the injuries to Wright, Workman, Smith and Thornburg? I'm sorry, but you are dead wrong about our pen depth. The depth was what saved us. Yes, we lost Kimbrel, but losing Kelly is not as big as you make it out to be. There were many who felt Kelly shouldn't even have been on the playoff rosters. We have Brasier for a full season. That alone could make up for Kelly's loss. Yes, Thornburg is huge question mark, but with Eovaldi in the rotation, we can see Johnson, Velazquez and a full season from Workman, Wright or Poyner seeing more time in the pen. Our pen weakness right now is NOT depth or quantity: it is quality at the most important slots- closer and number 1 set-up man, although Barnes and Brasier offer significant hope there. If anything, we have too many pitchers vying for the 7 pen slots with some of the wrong ones being out of options. Barnes Brasier Wright Thornburg Hembree Workman Johnson Velazquez Shawaryn E Ramirez C Shepherd Josh Smith Poyner Lakins Brewer Walden Z Putman Feltman (after July/Aug?)

Oh, now Barnes might do well!?!?

Losing Porcello and Bogey next year, resetting the tax after this year and going back to spending large in 2021 will not make Betts bolt.

I disagree. I think a reset has to happen after 2019 or 2020, and I feel strongly it will be after this year.

This wasn't my plan. I was trying to show, if there was any way to keep Sale, Bogey and Betts AND reset the tax. The answer was no, so yes, Bogey goes and maybe JBJ, too.

2020 Trade JBJ & Vaz for a low cost 5th starter. Do not resign FAs to be Porcello, Nunez, Holt and Thornburg 33 Sale 31 Price ~28M Betts (last arb) ~23M Bogey (re-sign) 22 JDM 17 Eovaldi 14 Pedey $168M in 7 players ~7 ERod (3rd of 4 arbs) ~4 Beni (1st of 3) ~3 Barnes (2 of 3) ~2 Hembree (2 of 3) ~2 Wright (3rd of 3) ~2 Leon (4th of 4) ~2 Swihart (2 of 4) add $22M add $15M player benefits $205M Total for 14 players under contract and projected arbs. The 2020 luxury tax line is $208M. Even with all the rest of the team at min wage and minor league salaries, we can't keep Sale, Bogey & Betts and reset in 2020. It won't get easier in 2021, when Betts gets his big payday. The only way I can see it happen, is if Pedey retires and gives up his money or agrees to a lifetime services contract to offset his budget hit.