moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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The Mookie Betts Performance Thread
moonslav59 replied to YastrzemskI's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Despite Vaz's 300 point lead on Leon, we win more when Leon catches. -
Exactly. He could be fantastic. There's a good chance he will be. Maybe not 50%+ but a good chance. I do think the odds are better than 50-50 he'll be good to great. It's probably 3:1 he'll be better than what we've had, so far.
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Plus, he got the playoff blues monkey off his back. fangraphs value dollars has him at $86.5M in 3.5 years- not counting the playoff value. That's about $24.5M/yr.
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Price could be traded for another big (but less) salary, of we could include cash as part of the deal. Price is certainly tradeable, but it is very unlikely to happen.
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Great points. Since Leon has been Sale's main catcher, one would expect Sale's poor record this year would harm Leon's winning %. It hasn't, this year. W-L in starts (Appearances) 2019 19-13 Leon (23-15) 34-34 Vaz (37-42) 2018 55-23 Leon (63-26) 46-21 Vaz (51-29) 2018-2019 combined GS'd 74-36 Leon .673 winning % 80-55 Vaz .593 wiining % OPS from 2018-2019 .702 Vaz (104 RBI+Runs- HRs) in 563 PAs .516 Leon (63) in 405 PAs
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I'm not sure I've ever heard anyone claim WAR ends all discussion. Yes, some posters use it like it's gospel, but just looking at the discussions here, there are many factors to discuss within the WAR numbers. To me, it's way less than the never ending arguments about how much we should value HRs vs BA, RBIs vs OBP, SLG vs K Rates, what a SB is worth and what factor does SB% play in that value? It was always such a swirl of numbers to try and determine just how valuable a player is or how good a year is he having. WAR tries to simplify it into one number, but that doesn't mean that one number totally ends the debate.
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In theory, to me, the number should not rely on how many plays are hit to the player or how many the RF'er takes away from the CF'er, if it is meant to determine how good the player is. However, the number is meant to capture what the player has done, and if the RF'er makes the play he could have made, he shouldn't get credit for just being there. It's like saying, "I was on deck for the walk off and should get some sort of credit for not getting a chance." Is JBJ really a worse defender because Betts gets to balls he could have caught, or because our staff Ks more batters or induces more GBs than other teams? Or, because there's this huge wall in short LF-CF that stops him from making some catches other CF'er make,because they play in a bigger park? I can see the argument being mad, and I think it has merit, but WAR is meant to capture what you have done not could have done. It places value on HRs vs singles or 2Bs. It places value on many factors all at once, something that is hard to do at the water cooler armed with 20 different stats.
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I said reset after 2019 or 2020. I think we trade JBJ and extend Betts after the season starts, we stay under- assuming we reset this winter.
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I think there's a decent chance he will be great in this role or as an Andrew Miller type role,
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Many are not taken because they are not major league ready. I'm not sure he's any closer now, but he's not blocking anyone, so keep all options open. He might be a late bloomer.
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I meant Travis in LF not Ockimey. They've already put Travis in LF at AAA this year.
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It's hard to know. He's got all the skills and attitude to be a great closer, but you never really know until you try it. What if he fails? Do we move him back to the rotation in August?
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Yes, not necessary, but I like the attempt, and they make noble efforts. It tries to shorten the water cooler conversations into one number instead of 3, 4 or 10.
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I'd dump Travis before Ockimey or have him play LF. Ockimey may be the DH someday. No need to cut any of them: keep all the options on the table.
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Yes, it is not perfect, but it is the best, single comparative value number we got.
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We ca trade some salary, if needed (JBJ or Workman will be FAs after 2020).
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September. Wright & Johnson are out of options. Walden & Velazquez may be better options. Yes, he could be in the mix.
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I'd still like to see us trade for a solid set-up man, as long as we don't have to give up a top prospect- something like the Cashner deal. Keep us under the max tax line. Closer: Eovaldi 8-9th inning RP'er: _______ 8-9th inning RP'er: Workman 7-8th inning RP'er: Barnes (if he regains himself) 7-8th inning RP'er: Taylor 6-7th inning RP'er: Brewer 6-7th inning RP'er: Hembree (assuming velocity returns) 5-6-7 inning RP'er: Walden or Wright/Johnson/Velazquez
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7/18 BJ's @ SOX
moonslav59 replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Oakland lost. TB got swept. We are 1 down in the loss column to TB and 2 down to the Guardians. Games behind: CLE +1 TBR -1 BOS -1 We are now ties with TB and 2.5 up on the Rangers. Time to rock'n'roll! Our .546 winning % would be 3rd best in the NL. -
I hope he gets off to a great start.
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So, assuming we look to reset after this year, do we go with just this group to fill out the right side of the IF? 1B: Chavis, Dalbec, Ockimey, Travis (Holt as depth) 2B: Chavis, Holt, Hernandez, Chatham, Lin
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So, when Eovaldi returns, will this be the 25 man roster, until Moreland and/or Johnson is ready? (Pearce, reportedly, isn't even close.) 5 SP: Price, Sale, ERod, Porcello, Cashner 8 RP: Eovaldi, Workman, Taylor, Barnes, Brewer, Hembree, Walden , (Weber or DHern) 2 C: Vaz, Leon 2 1B: Chavez, Travis 2 2B: Holt, Hernandez 1 3B: Devers 1 SS: Bogaerts 1 LF: Beni 1 CF: JBJ 1 RF: Betts 1 DH: JD Moreland> Travis Johnson> DHern or Weber Wright> Trade or Walden or Hembree back to IL (velo down)
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I would not be against the idea, and my guess is, he may take a hometown discount.
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When I say "reinvent himself," I'm not saying Sale needs some radical make-over. He still throws pretty hard and has multiple pitches. He just can no longer rely on rearing back and throwing it 98-100 mph when needed. His control went on the blink a couple times this year, but he has also had some stretches where his K:BB rate was off the charts. There is still reason for concern, but I'm confident Sale will be great for us going forward.
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Last 50 Games: 1.081 Bogey 1.050 Devers .973 Pearce (27 PAs) .943 Holt .916 JBJ .880 Marco (55 PAs) .851 JD .838 Betts .817 Vaz .752 Beni .746 Moreland (24) .724 Chavis .486 Leon .320 Travis (25) 9 guys over .817!
