moonslav59

Yes, teams win or lose, but for decades and decades fans have argued about which players are more helpful in getting their teams to win vs other players. They've used a long list of stats to try and prove their points while the other guys uses a long list of different stats to try and prove his point. Many times it boiled down to which stats one guy felt were more important than the others. That didn't even include the personal observation aspects to the debates. It's not like that system was fool- proofed. WAR is not fool-proofed either, but it does try to scientifically weigh which stats are more important in creating wins than others and weighs them accordingly. It spits out a single, imperfect number that becomes part of the debate but should never be a debate ender.

The best thing about Eovaldi is that his addition to the 25 man roster will knock Weber off it. I'd still look to trade for a solid RP this minute and knock the next clown off. Give the team 10 days to win or be sold off piece by piece.

I doubt we do a total sell, something that may need to be done to rebuild the farm by having some top picks for 2-3 years, because Henry will always want at least a decent team on the field as we retool. My guess is, we trade everyone who isn't viewed as a useful piece come 2021. That would mean JBJ and Betts (if not extended) along with the 2020 FAs to be. We'd have to look at Price Sale and Eovaldi in light of 2021 and beyond. They may or may not be traded. We can reset while keeping many of our current stars- but not all.

Assume we become sellers and look to reset next year, we could try something like this: Trade all free agents to be who have any trade value and maybe bring back only Holt. Trade JD for the best offer. These moves are not being made to rebuild the farm to respectability. We won't get enough back for that, but it's a step in the right direction and allows us to reset the tax next season. Perhaps, we can look to compete as early as 2021 as we become big spenders again and possibly re-sign Betts. 2020 Projected budget & roster: 31M Price ~28M Betts (last arb) 26M Sale 20M Bogey 17M Eovaldi 14M Pedey ~10M JBJ (Arb 4 of 4) ~9M ERod (Arb 3 of 4) ~5M Beni (Arb 1 of 3) 4M Vaz ~4M Holt (re-signed) ~4M Workman (Arb 3 of 3) ~3M Barnes (Arb 2 of 3) Minimum: Devers, Chavis, Taylor, Walden, Johnson, Velazquez, Marco, Brewer, Leon, DHern, Lin, Dalbec, Chatham & others ~2M Hembree (Arb 2 of 3) We'd even have a few million to fill some slots with temporary fixes or 1 longer term moderate signing, especially if we traded JBJ, too. SP: Price, Sale, ERod, Eovaldi, Johnson or Velazquez RP: Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Hembree, Brewer, Walden, DHern, Brasier C: Vaz & Leon 1B: Chavis & Travis (Dalbec) 2B: Holt & Marco (Chavis) 3B: Devers SS: Bogey (Lin/Chatham) LF: Beni CF: JBJ RF: Betts DH: Dalbec (Chavis/Vaz)

He'd be attractive as a rental, and the option years are not overpays. We'd get a nice return in trade, but what might be more important would be the ability to reset the tax in 2020 and still be able to extend Betts afterwards.

I think I've watched every single pitch of every Sox game for over a decade, but I almost shut the TV off during tonight's game. Pathetic. One step forward- two steps back. (Yes, it was only one loss, but this felt like two.)

I'm more worried about the no-names and scrubs. We do fine vs the best of the best (and the best of the worst, too).

Edgar was "the man."

Bounce back from what? This? 5 IP 1 ER 5 IP 1 ER 6 IP 2 ER 6 IP 2 ER 5 IP 1 ER That's his last 5 starts in reverse order.

Hey harmony... Edgar Martinez's "The Double" in 1995 ALDS WWW.MLB.COM SEATTLE -- The defining moment of Edgar Martinez's 18-year career with the Mariners has been replayed time and again, and for good reason. “The Double,” as it’s simply known to Mariners fans, did more than put Martinez on the national map 25 years ago, on Oct. 8, 1995. Many believe

I'm leaning towards after next season, but maybe this year exposed the writing on the wall, whether we rebound or not. We can reset by not re-signing any of our free agents, except maybe Holt and letting JD and/or JBJ go. Anytime we reset, it's going to be an "off year." The sooner we do it, the sooner we may get back to respectability after a 1-2 year "cliff" or valley. That would be a few prospects or min wage FAs filling some holes, but if we then re-sign Betts, we'd have a strong core to build back up with, and a fresh new max line to cross.

It is interesting that we are second in runs scored and 18th in HRs. Must be the excellent line-up construction!

I've been told the same about my incessant use of OPS, but even though I can see how people might think I am trying to end the debate by posting OPS all the time, I never mean it to be taken that way. Someone says, Betts is in a slump, and I say, "His OPS is .950 the last 14 days and .895 the last 30 days" does not mean the debate is over. It's just some numbers that support my position. Someone could replay, "He's at .550 the last 10 days." Someone can say, "JBJ is a below average defender, because his UZR/150 is -0.5." I can say, "But, it's +9.5 over the last 3 years, and he ranks 12th out of the top 30 CF'er in that time frame." The debate is never over. Is the debate over when someone says, "My eyes say JBJ is a top 5 OF'er?" Same thing: no.

Exactly, gotta mix it up and keep 'em guessing. If you never throw it high on those counts, then they won't be expecting it, anyways.

If we are indeed going to reset the tax this winter or next, we'll be keeping guys like Chavis who can play 2 positions that will be high need this winter.

We lived through Kimbrel's nail-biting outings. We'll be fine.

I feel badly you think I don't trust my own eyes. The eyes that see JBJ play and the yes that look at the numbers. First, dWAR, when used as instructed does NOT say JBJ is marginally better than a AAAA player. Second, how much do you really know about the other 29 CF'er's defense and just how good a AAAA CF'er is on defense? My guess is they may be mostly all glove no bat-type players and might be very close to JBJ on defense. Third, my eyes do think JBJ is better than average, and that's where the 3 year numbers place him. If he really is better than dWAR or UZR/150 says he is, and more like where we think he is, it doesn't mean the whole dWAR and UZR/150 is trash. It might just mean they got one wrong- maybe for some of the reasons discussed here, at length. I know I make a heck of a lot more mistakes than UZR/150 does, because I base my opinions on where JBJ ranks on watching 0-3 games a year for half the teams in MLB. Hell, I used to think Nomar was a good fielder. How many MLB fans think Jeter was a plus SS? I feel badly for them. They fell for an illusion based on a couple ESPN highlight reels.

The thing it does is a short cut: you are right. It tries to put all the stats and arguments into one number. "But, this guys has more power." "But, this other guy is a way better fielder." How do we know which one is more valuable and by how much? WAR attempts to weight each value in terms of how much it helps win a game. It reduces all 77 arguments about each area of skill into one number. It is flawed, and it should be a conversation ender, but it does offer useful information, IMO.

Can you name an everyday SS you've seen enough to call worse than Bogey? BTW, he's not listed as the worst, except for DRS. Out of 27 SSs with 400+ innings, Bogey places: 15th in UZR/150 at -0.5 (They have Crawford and 12 below him.) How about 2017-2019? 30 SSs with 1500+ innings Bogey ranks 16th in UZR/150 at 0.0 (Segura, Galvis, Swanson and A Escobar are just below him.) He ranks 30th in DRS.

Much of Chavis' WAR is fueled by his hot start. Abreu has a longer history. I don't think we need to target a 1Bman

Don't choke on it!

I must be confusing you with someone else. Maybe it was the "more I think about it" comment that through me off. Sorry.

I guess there's not much faith in Chavis, Holt & Marco.

Sarcasm or major policy shift?

5 or 6 seems to be the limit. 17 starts: 14 with 5.0 to 6.1 IP 1 with 7 IP 2 with 0.2 to 1.1 IP