moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Wow!
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Exactly. In a way, his decision hints at how healthy he sees himself going into 2020.
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32% is closer to a crap shoot (50%) than 0%, but it's much worse than flipping a coin. My point has been about winning it all. I think this all started when Kimmi said that once a team makes the playoffs, it's a crap shoot on who will win it all. The idea was that you just needed to make the playoffs to have an equal chance at winning it all. making yourself into a super team did not add to your chances once you made the playoffs. Even one series at a time, if it was a crap shoot, I'd expect the worse 4 teams vs the best 4 teams might win 45-55% of the time, if it was a 100% crap shoot (like one poster voted). What does "mostly" mean? 32%? 45%? I guess there's room for interpretation. BTW, I don't disagree with your last post, so maybe stopping now would be good.
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Okay, 3 out of 16. That's not a crap shoot. 8 out of 16 is. This isn't stats or metrics. The better half of the teams win it all 75% of the time. The lower half wins it all 25% of the time. (3 out of 16 is actually about 19%, so yeah, I'm using numbers. I can't help myself.)
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If I were him, and I felt healthy, I'd not opt out and go for broke after 2020.
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Just agree with me, and we can stop! (LOL)
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https://tenor.com/view/scooby-doo-ruh-roh-cartoon-animation-gif-8687005
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I'm on pins and needles.
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That Marlin team was damn good. Beckett was their #5 starter. Derek Lee and Mike Lowell both had 30+ Hrs and they also had Alex Gonzalez at SS (my fave), IRod behind the plate, Pierre in CF (strong D up the middle) plus Miggy, EE, Luis Castillo and others. They won 91 games (3rd best in NL), but they were 49-45 in the first half and were a different team the second half (42-25). It wasn't a surprise they made the WS. I'll admit nobody gave them much of a chance to beat NY, who went 44-25 in their second half. They Giants won in 2014, but the NL had nobody with more than 96 wins. I might say 2 upsets, but even 3 in 16 years is way less than 8 in 16, which would be the expected number, if winning the WS was 100% a crap shoot.
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Ruh-row- Elroy!
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They do win quite a few times, but in total, it's way less than 50% of the time, especially if they are big underdogs. The argument was about winning it all, and that means an underdog has to win 3 series against better teams. How many examples are there for that? I mentioned the 2006 Cards as maybe the only one in the past 2 decades. Do you think I missed anyone? Is 1 out of 20 a crap shoot?
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lol.
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In MLB, if you are an underdog WC team, you have to win 12 games. A division winner needs 11. That's not easy, unless you are just a slight underdog in each series.
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It looks more and more like that way, but hey, maybe we do offer him the most. I do think there is a slight chance he takes a little less to play in Boston but not significantly less. You gotta like winning, and the Sox do a lot of celebrating.
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Contrary to widely held beliefs, highway robbery IS legal in Texas.
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I'd do it.
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I'd be fine with Broxton on our team as a starting CF'er. He may be better than JBJ on defense. If he can hit near .700, then I'd be very happy. Go with defense up the middle and use the money saved to fill bigger need areas.
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To me, the chance of the Astros, Yanks, Dodgers & Braves making the WS were way higher than the other 6 teams combined. One could argue the Nats were a top 4 team going into the playoffs based on their second half record and strong rotation. The chance of an underdog winning 3 series vs better teams is very remote in MLB. In the NFL, it's a one game, single elimination playoff system, so slight underdogs win much more often, and moderate underdogs win more than baseball. Still, in football, the best team wins very often. It's designed that way. That's why the season only has to be one-tenth of the MLB season to weed out the best from the worst.
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I disagree!
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How about Price, Eovaldi, Travis and $7M/yr for 3 years for Choo & Odor?
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If no other money had to go to Texas, yes. I'd hate to part with Dalbec, but he is blocked, right now. (I'd rather add Chavis and move Devers or Dalbec to 1B.) Getting out from under Price's deal would give us a lot budget space to add valuable players for 3 years. BTW, who was the poster who said we'd regret it, if Price opted out? Was it 700?
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If Sox fans loved JBJ, they would adore Broxton's sub .600 OPS all year long- not just in month-long slumps.
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I'd add $22M and do this deal, or I'd add another player or two to keep the money down.
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If the OF'er is not all that great and the 2 prospects are lower than #80, I don't think it's "crazy."
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I have to believe more money would have to go to Texas. Choo has one year left at $21M, and Odor has an 8.25 luxury tax hit x 3 years. He also has a team option for 2023 at $13.5M with a $3.5M buyout. We'd be robbing the Rangers blind. Odor hit 30 HRs (.721 OPS) this year and Choo 24 (.826 OPS). I'm sure his .205 BA would frustrate many Sox fans, but he is young and hit .253 in 2018. (BTW, Chavis hit just .221 second half.)
