moonslav59

For argument's sake, let's say we add Mata, Potts, Groome, Wong, Seabold and Rosario to the 40 man roster to protect them from rule 5, here's a look at what our 2021 40 man roster might look like before any additions, re-signings or trades. 18- Pitchers: Sale, Eovaldi, Perez, Erod, Houck, Pivetta, Seabold, Godley, Weber, Mata Barnes, D Hern, Valdez, Taylor, Brasier, Brewer, Walden, Groome 4- Catchers: Vazquez, Plawecki, Grullon, Wong 2- 1B: Dalbec, Chavis 4- 2B: Arrojo , Munoz + (Pedey 60 day IL) 2- 3B: Devers, Potts 1- SS: Bogey, Chatham 5- OF: Verdugo, Beni, Wilson, Puello, Rosario 1- DH: JD That's 37, but guys like Chatham, Puello, Grullon and Walden could easily be added to the "bubble" list below: Bubble (players currently on our 40 man roster: Mazza, Hart, TapiaCovey, Brice, Springs, Stock, Triggs, Leyer, Kickham, Hall, Lin, Aybar, Arauz, Peraza I'm not seeing a major roster crunch, this winter. We have room to acquire 6-8 players without having to clear space for them that causes us to lose anyone real promising.

Here's the Sox Rule 5 List for this winter: Christopher Acosta Eduard Bazardo Garrett Benge Gary Calvo Pedro Castellanos Kutter Crawford Ricardo Cubillan Chad De La Guerra Jerry Downs Jose Espada Rio Gomez Jay Groome Hunter Haworth Matt Kent Jose Larez Adam Lau Dominic LoBrutto Everlouis Lozada Bryan Lucas Charlie Madden Alan Marrero Joan Martinez Bryan Mata Tate Matheny Alexander Montero Oddanier Mosqueda Brendan Nail Brett Netzer Tanner Nishioka Emerson Ortiz Michael Osinski Yorvin Pantoja Isaac Pinales Antonio Police Hudson Potts Bobby Poyner Roniel Raudes Austin Rei Denyi Reyes Jeremy Rivera Jeisson Rosario Jagger Rusconi Yasel Santana Zach Schellinger Alex Scherff Connor Seabold Mike Shawaryn Kervin Suarez Jake Thompson Josh Tobias Connor Wong I'm seeing about 6-9 players we may add to the 40 man roster from this list.

It's very hard to win a ring by acquiring 4-7 studs in one winter. I'm not for signing a bunch of players long term, this winter, but identifying 1-2 that look to be part of our longer term plans could be added, this winter. That would lessen the pressure to add too many next winter. If we sign one guy for $16M x 6 years and another for $9M x 5 years, that's only $25M out of the $70M we have to spend. Some can be spent on 1-2 years deals or "bridge" signings. We're losing $25M in salaries after 2021, so adding $25M would be covered by that for 2022. We might also go very large for one guy, in hopes he leads us beyond 2022. I'm not sure a guy like Bauer or Springer fits in with our long term budget plans.

I said he deserves a look. That doesn't mean I have to have false hopes. The "glowing reports" have not moved him into any top 100 prospects lists. He certainly is promising, and you can't teach speed, so he has some nice skills. His "great season" in low A ball was aided by a likely unsustainable high BAbip. Let's give him some time in AA and AAA before we start counting on him to make the team, let along help us win in 2021. He is more likely someone that might help by 2022. I'm not giving up on him. I may have lower expectations than others, here, on him, but I know I like guys like Ward, Jimenez and other more than others, so I don't see myself as a Sox prospect naysayer. Here is soxprospects.com summation of Jaren Duran: Summation: Potential fringe starting outfielder with two carrying tools. Ceiling of an everyday center fielder. Nailing down his future projection is tough without a chance to evaluate swing changes made in 2020 without true game action. Speed is not a question, and hit tool should get to above-average if he can refine his approach. If 2020 power development is real, he could become a dynamic offensive player. Has already shown strong ability to make contact and drive the ball into the gaps. With his speed, has the potential to put a lot of pressure on the defense and inflate his average with infield singles and slugging by taking extra bases. Could also steal 30-plus bases if he improves his instincts. Is still continuing to develop in center field, but likely to develop into at least an average defender there and has the raw tools to become an above-average defender. Has one surefire major league impact tool in his speed, so should have a role on a major league roster even in the worst-case scenario, especially if MLB retains the runner-on-second rule in extra innings going forward.

We paid Kimbrel $13M a year not $17M. I do think Eovaldi may work out best as a closer, but with just 1-2 years left of team control and our rebuild maybe 1-2 years away it makes little sense to pay $17M for a closer on a team not likely to be a highly competitive team until at least 2022. If we are seriously looking at making a strong run for 2022, JD, Eovaldi and maybe Bogey's last years here, then I can see holding onto him, but an argument can also be made that trading him might improve our odds in 2022, too, and better position us for beyond that year.

I'm fine with that idea, but counting on adding 2-4 solid FAs after 2021 might not be as easy as finding one or two this winter and one or two next winter. Getting one or two now would help us be better in 2021 while still being a big part of 2022 and beyond. I'm not for spending the whole budget on long term deals, but spending none on long term deals is going to make it hard to find true quality.

He's only 26, and replacing a pitcher who only pitches half the time is not such a big deal. I'm not making the deal because I have much faith in Odor. I'm making the deal to free up some cash for the next 2 years. No, we probably won't strike magic at $8M a year, but Bloom is pretty good at finding under-the-radar gems, and the idea is that maybe instead of signing a pitcher for $12-18M a year, we could add the $8M saved from Eovaldi and get a mucch better one at $20-28M per year. Look, I'm not sold on it being a sure fire good idea. Eovaldi is a damn good pitcher, when healthy, and he can pitch much better than his $17M contract, but with just 2 years left on his deal and our rebuild maybe taking 1-2 more years, I'm at least looking into dealing anyone with less than 3 years of team control- not handing them away, of course.

Do you have faith he'll make even 42 of his scheduled 64 starts over 2021-2022? I'd probably bet the under on 34 GS'd.

His high A numbers were not as great as they appeared, either. He has a lot to prove, IMO. Yes, he has great speed, but is it smart speed? Is he a great defender? Does he have good base-running instincts? Does he use his speed for anything more than a bunch of infield hits? I, honestly, don't know.

Pedey, ERod & Barnes may total $25M for 2021. That's a pretty big chunk of change to have added to the winter spending budget after 2021.

I'd do the Odor trade, yesterday. He's owed $27M over the next 2 years, including paying off the $3M buyout for the 3rd year. Eovaldi is owed $34M. While we save $7M over 2 years, we actually save $8.75M PER YEAR on the luxury tax budget. That's very significant. We could even throw in another player or chip in the $7M to even the deal for the Rangers, but we'd still save over $5 a year on the tax budget.

You know I've always respected you, but come on. The kid is 25 and has less than 300 career PAs at the ML level. Surely, not much can be "proven" in that short a sample size. His minor league numbers are pretty good, but they are also small sample sizes: AAA: .846 OPS in 418 PAs AA: .689 in 517 PAs A+: .789 in 416 PAs .775 in 1952 minor league PAs total.

I think we hold onto him, at least to next summer's trade deadline. We hope he looks healthy and with less and less owed to him as time goes by, we might be able to trade him without paying any of his deal, or very little. The return might not be the goal.

Not if a big chunk of the deals we make, money wise, are 1-2 year deals or longer term deals that actually work out for the long term. We also lose Pedey, ERod and Barne's contracts after 2021. That will give us more to spend after 2021. We lose JD and Eovaldi after 2022. Bogey may opt out after 2022, as well. The only real long term deal we have left is Sale, and he only has 4 more years left after 2020. I'm not saying we will spend $90M, this winter, but we could. More likely we spend about $60M, keep $10-30M to make summer deals, if needed, or to spend after 2021. I do think that if Bloom identifies a FA he really likes for the long term, and it will take a 6+ year deal to get him, why wait for 2022? The idea is to start building a core, now. Fill in the rest with shorter term deals to allow flexibility, later, but get a few pieces this winter. I could see the plan being to spend up to but not over the first limit, maybe $6-10M short of it, then go $19M over for 2022- the year we might be a top contender with Bogey, JD and Eovaldi still under control that one last year.

That must be why the Yankee ring drought is so pronounced.

I'm scratching my head wondering when his next IL stint is. Tomorrow? The idea of trading Eovaldi (with some cash), assuming for a prospect or two, is to free up budget space for adding pitchers we can actually count on to pitch while building up the farm for longer term success. Sure, the trade might not work, or Eovaldi could suddenly get healthy right after we deal him, but the theory for trading him does make some sense, even if you disagree with it and think Eovaldi is going to do something meaningful for us over the next 2 years of his deal. Yes, it looks counterintuitive to trade pitching when your biggest need is pitching, but we're talking about a pitcher who spends more time on the IL than not. He has 62 starts and 345 IP in the last 5 seasons combined. Several pitchers give that in 2 seasons. If we don't get anything useful for him, then keep him, but one could argue trading him and his full contract for nothing might be a plus.

If Arroyo is doing well enough to hold onto the 2B position, we simply hold off bringing Downs up. It's not like he's banging on the door by hitting .850 in AAA. (Also, let's not jump the gun, here. Arroyo has 35 PAs, this year. That's a teenie-tiny sample size. He had a .622 OPS in his 250 previous ML PAs) Even if we do bring Downs up mid-season 2021, there should be plenty of chances for him to get some playing time without moving everyone around to different positions. Arroyo has experience at 3B and SS. He could fill-in there a few times, while Downs plays 2B. Downs can also back up SS. I don't see us moving Devers to 1B, even though I liked the idea a couple years ago. We also have to think of Bogey opting out. Downs or Arroyo may be in the mix, there, too. If we end up with an IF logjam, it will be a nice problem to have to deal with, and trading one could help us fill a need elsewhere.

I'm JBJ's biggest fan, but I agree. Move on. I'm not all that high on Duran, but I'd like to see him get a shot at showing what he's got. Maybe we sign a couple 1 year OF'ers to give us a chance to see what Duran has and put off the OF decisions for another year. I am also going to be watching the progress of Jimenez & Rosario. To me, they might be our OF future more than Duran. It's just that Duran is way more closer to being ML ready.

If we spend the full $70M we have under the lux limit, we can be much better next year without any major trades. That doesn't mean we won't or shouldn't make any, but only that we may not need to shed anymore vets or big salaries to get back to competitiveness. My guess is we hold onto the players that will be free agents, soon, and see what happens, next season. If we are not looking competitive, we'll trade some by the deadline. Pedey, ERod and Barnes all come off the books after 2021, so the latter two seem like the most likely to be traded, but if Eovaldi , Beni & JD look good, next year, they could be on the block, too. They all come off the books after 2022. If Henry really wants to win in 2021, he may okay going $19M over the limit, thereby allowing us to spend about $90M. If we can't get competitive with that budget, then there's little hope.

Our Top Prospects 1. Casas 2. Downs 3. Mata 4. Dalbec 5. Ward 6. Jimenez 7. Houck 8. Duran 9. Song 10. Wallace 11. Rosario 12. Groome 13. Yorke 14. Potts 15. Seabold 16. Jordan 17. Lugo 18. Wong 19. Ramirez 20. PTBNL for Osich? Red= Bloom additions

Nice to hear. He may be placed in our top 10-14 rankings. I wonder who the PTBNL for Osich wiill be.

It's a good sign Bloom knows how to spot pitching talent. This time our medical staff let us down. Usually, it's not knowing someone is hurt (Pom, THornburg...). This time it was warning this kid was an injury risk (which he still might be).

I didn't forget. Here are some interesting numbers. Best ERA- in a season since 1970 (100+ IP): 1. 2000 Pedro 35 2. 1994 Maddux 37 3. 1995 Maddux 39 4. 1973 S Rogers 41 5. 2013 Buchholz 42 6. 1999 Pedro 42 14. 1997 Pedro 45 (MTL) 18. 1990 Clemens 47 19. 2018 C Sale 47 22. 2003 Pedro 48 25. 2002 Pedro 50 36. 2001 Pedro 53 42. 2010 Buchholz 54 65. 1994 Clemens 57 66. 2002 D Lowe 57 73. 1986 Clemens 57 78. 1992 Clemens 58 85. 1972 L Tiant 59

It's hard to ever say Buch tending down, since his whole career was a yo-yo.

True. I was speaking to the re-signing.