My guess is he will look for the longest deal possible. An opt out will not be something that would help him as much as others, IMO.
I've never been high on Vaz's defense, and I don't know much about Realmuto's D, but if we could trade Vaz and others (Eovaldi?) for a quality, reliable starting pitcher, that might tip the balance on signing him.
I'm not sure why hardly anybody wants us to sign Bauer. True, he hasn't been a big innings guy, but that may be a good thing, since his arm has not been over-worked. He has had 26 or more starts since 2014. He's had 28 or more starts in 4 of those 6 seasons, including 34, last year. Yes, his ERA has been over 4.18 in 5 of those 6 years (not counting 2020), but he's been at 3.22 the last 3 years combined. His WHIP over the last 3 years is 1.125 with a K/9 of 11.2.
His ERA+ has been at 106, 109, 196, 106, 271 the last 5 years, including 2020. It's at 143 the last 3 years combined. That is very impressive.
I agree, he does not deserve David Price money and years, and if someone offers him that, I do not want us to match or surpass that, but I seriously doubt anyone goes that high and long.