moonslav59

Good points. Maybe someday I will get some optimism about 2020. I've never felt or said we have no chance at competing. We have too many really good to great players to think we have no chance, but to me, we need too much to go right for the chances to be realistic. (I'm one who do not agree with the position that 2013 was a year of career outliers. However, I pretty much wrote us off before the 2013 season began.) Here's a break down of the 2020 Sox: Vaz: This guy has been so up and down, it's hard to project anything. .735 and .798 in 2017 & 2019 but .585 and .540 in 2016 & 2018. Should we expect .690, his career OPS? He's only been within 100 points of.690 once his whole career. What concerns me most about Vaz is his defense and how poorly he seems to do with getting the most out of our pitchers. Plawecki: Apparently, he's good with pitchers, but the .636 career OPS (.629 in 2019) doesn't look much different than Leon. Chavis (1B): I guess I just don't share the optimism on this guy. While his .766 rookie season looks very nice, it was largely fueled by a red hot start. Once pitchers figured him out, he struggled mightily. (.986 in first 22 games/ .696 in last 73 games) Peraza (2B): It's hard to get optimistic with a guy who hit .631 last year and has a .686 career. Chavis at 2B might give better offense, but who plays 1B? Dalbec? Bogaerts (SS): Coming off a career year. I'm pumped up on Bogey. Devers (3B): Came into his own in 2019. Super excited here! Benintendi (LF): Not as extreme as Vaz, but has been up and down over his 4 seasons- almost to a perfect relationship: .835>.776>.830>.774. I'm hopeful Beni can have a bust out season, but another .775 type season is certainly possible. JBJ (CF): His recent career has been inspected and dissected to an extreme. He has been plagued by horrific slumps to start off his last 3 seasons. He's done well the rest of the seasons, and his defense is still strong. Betts (RF): I'm hoping he retires in a Sox uniform. It's his "walk year," so maybe he will outshine 2018's numbers. Maybe. Martinez (DH): This guy has been a light out hitter for several years in a row. All-in-all, our offense should be top 4 or 5, barring any trades. The pitching is almost impossible to project. ERod, Workman, Walden & Taylor had career years in 2019. Will they repeat, improve or decline? Only ERod seems like a near sure bet. Price, Sale & Eovaldi are the keys to winning (or losing) in 2020. Nobody knows how healthy they will be, and even if they are all never miss a start, how good they will be is somewhat questionable. Barnes and Hembree failed to impress in 2019 but offer some hope. DHern had an off the charts K rate (16.9), but his BB rate was eye-opening as well (7.7). I'm hopeful he improves, but who knows? Perez replacing Porcello is not too exciting. All-in-all, the pitching staff is highly questionable, at best.

I guess I'm not in such a small minority.

He paid cash for Perez & Peraza. The checkbook is locked away.

Crime is everywhere, but only those who get caught pay the price.

Oh, I get that JD & JBJ have very limited trade value, but something is better than nothing. If nothing is all that is offered, I might still do it to save money. (True, no money will be "saved" for 2021, unless JD opts in, but money saved now by Henry could be used to pay taxes later.) Workman could get us something nice. He could also be packaged with JD, JBJ, Price or Eovaldi to lessen the financial additions we'd likely have to make to dump the last 2. How about Eovaldi, JD, JBJ & Workman to TX for Odor, Frazier & Hernandez (C prospect)? I'm not sure the Rangers want to spend this much, but you get the theory, assuming Betts is traded as well..

A pleasant daydream.

You may not agree on giving up on 2020, and I can understand that, but there is a clear advantage in trading other players. We get prospects or salary relief for 2021 and beyond. Our farm is not good. We can always bring back Betts, JD and Workman as well as add new blood. Clinging to players that are FAs after 2020 only helps 2020.

Isn't it already there and has been all winter?

I bet he misses his first start.

Forget the "or not." If we trade Betts, why keep JBJ and JD or even Workman? We can sign them all this winter after a reset, if we want. We're not winning in 2020 without Betts, so why pretend we still can. Once we decided to pack in 2020, we should have gone all in.

It's me- for real. I'm pretty certain we'll trade some players this season- most likely at the deadline. The only way we don't is if we are in the race by the deadline. I think that's highly unlikely. So, if we trade some players, I'm thinking we should trade everyone and anyone who is NOT part of the 2021 plan and seriously consider those who are FAs after 2021. We can bring back many of the players we want as FAs this winter, anyways, so this may not be a total deconstruction, except for 2020. The kingpin is Betts. If we trade him then why keep JD, JBJ, Workman and the two grossly overpaid pitchers? I get it: fans and NESN viewership. I'm not saying this makes business sense, or that I think Sox management might do this, but it's what I feel is best for the team. We sacrificed the future for 2018, and the future is upon us. Let's keep the cliff years to just 2 (2019 & 2020). Nobody hacked my account. I was on the fence earlier this winter, but with all this cheating stuff and parting with Cora has helped me stand firmly on the side of rebuilding as quickly and effectively as possible.

The trade simulator has these values: 127.2 Devers 71.4 Pache 50.6 Waters 35.6 Anderson 12.5 Muller 1.2 Vodnik

I'm very consistent using 3 year sample sizes. Let me ask you something: is it more likely he starts 35 games in 2020 or 22? or, 11? He's averaged about 21 starts the last 3 years. How about 35 vs 21? I'd bet closer to 21 than 35. I might even bet closer to 11 than 22. I'd bet the under on 21, for sure. You?

A hole is something that needs to be filled in. If we assume 33 starts per starter, here are the holes we needed to fill for Price over the last 3 years: 2017: 22 starts needed by guys like Fister (15 GS), Johnson (5) or Wright (5) or worse... 2018: 3 starts (Johnson-13) 2019: 11 starts by guys like Velazquez (8), Johnson (7) and Cashner (6) He's missed 36 out of 99 starts. That's a huge hole. Yes, the 63 starts were valuable and will need to be replaced. He does have value. I'm not for DFA'ing him.

Price and Eovaldi are already "holes" to fill.

Well, Moncada would come with Kopech.

I'd be happy with just JBJ, Price & Eovaldi, but I'm thinking why not get something for Betts, while we can. (I want him back, badly.)

So, all those who expected a "quick rebuild of the farm" have what to say, now?

At this point, I'd trade Betts, JBJ, JD, Price, Eovaldi & Workman, since all are FAs after this year or grossly overpaid. I'd think long and hard about trading 2 year players like Barnes & Hembree, but I'd look to extend ERod. I'd consider trading players I think may be at peak value: Walden, Chavis & Duran... maybe Beni. I'd keep Sale, Bogey, Devers and D Hern. I'd try and keep the rebuild short by going nutty with free agent signings this next winter. I'd go hard for Betts but not too overboard. I'd try to keep most signings shorter term. I'd encourage Bloom to find some diamonds in the rough. Maybe we can compete in 2021. maybe it will take a bit longer. I'm packing it in for 2020, despite a slim chance at glory.

The one with Yates?

I'd trade em both.

That's not a big deal, to me. We can't count on him for jack. He costs too much. He becomes a distraction, at times.

According to cots, we're projected to be $17.6M over the Lux line. This trade could get us under by itself. Plus, I can't help but chuckle when people ask, how are we going to replace Price? It's addition by subtraction.

I don't. I want to dump Price more than not wanting Myers. Here's my reasoning: 1) Myers can play 1B and may still have some life in him. 2) We need a 1Bman and OF depth. 3) Price is owed $96M/3. Myers $69M/3. (Nobody will take Price for free.) 4) Price costs the Padres $9M x 3 years- not bad for them. 5) We save $17.2M a year, which is close to our projected overage on the LUX Tax. 6) No more Price drama. This is not about Myers. We can pay some team $69M to take Price off our hands, but we'd have nothing to show for it, and we'd only save $9M a year on the tax budget. We can trade him for a player who is owed way more than his Lux tax number- a guy like Myers.

Clearinghouse: Betts, Eovaldi & Workman to LAD for Gonsolin, Stripling, Cartaya & Pollock Price, JBJ (Santana from LAD) to SDP for Myers & Margot