moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Astros-to-sign-Ryne-Stanek
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The AL has been weakened by trades, so far- at least in terms of 2021 team skill levels, so if the Sox sign a few good players, we may leap frog quite a few teams in the on-paper rankings.
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Good point, but the assumption is no big deals are on the agenda, and we likely will not go way over the luxury tax line. This still gives us way more payroll flexibility than the vast majority of ML teams, IMO. I do think, when all is said and done, we will be one of this winter's top spending 5 teams. I am certain we will be from today and onward. It just won't me big flashy signings, unless you think Odorizzi, Kluber or Hand are flashy.
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I consider all the players you mentioned part of the wait and sign bargain signings of decent to good players. Add low cost E Hernandez and a CF'er and we'll have spent more than 80% of the teams from today onward.
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Way less teams, and some of the the teams that will end up spending more than the Sox have already spent much of their budget and may have less left over than the Sox do at this moment. I would be surprised if 5 teams spend more than the Sox fro this day forward, and that includes whoever signs Bauer, Springer and a couple others.
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Yes, and sometimes the odds-makers make the much better team the prohibitive favorite to win a series- sometimes higher odds than many NBA series. Just because the worst record team wins a WS every now and then, doesn't make the odds random. If it was random, Vegas would be losing millions to people betting the dog every game.
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Toronto.
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I see the exact opposite position over the past 5 years. 50 teams made the playoffs, and only 5 were best record teams, yet the best record team won 60% of them (3 of 5). You'd expect zero or one, if it was totally random.
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So, if you divide the playoff teams into two groups: the better half vs the worse half, you'd call a 55% to 45% split a "crap shoot?" How about a 60-40 split? A 2 to 1 split? Well, 78% have won the WS in the last 9 years. Maybe it used to be somewhat random, but it is not anymore. Even more convincing, about the last 9 seasons, 4 of the 9 WS winners were the best record teams. Total randomness would predict about 1. Okay,maybe you can claim "small sample size." Something I have used often, but times have changed. The rich have gotten obscenely richer and better.
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It's amazing how they can lose Kluber, Clevinger, Bauer &Carrasco and still have a good rotation.
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He's staying in Japan. -MLBTR
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Every GM will not have the spending budget Bloom will likely have. Therein lies the difference.
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Again, I'm not saying wait until the very end. There will be plenty of decent players signing later in the cycle. We don't need to sign Bauer, Springer, DJ or Realmutto to add serious value without busting our budget.
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No, 27 are not. Many will not be signing anybody for much more than min wage. I'm not saying wait until the day before opening day, but waiting will probably turn out to be the "smart" thing do do, both in terms of financial bargains found, but also maximizing your value. The Sox have such a pitiful bottom of their 40 man roster and a pretty weak bottom of their 26 man roster. They could do better finding 4-6 bargain gems than going for just 2-4 higher cost flashy guys.
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Seems to me like waiting may be highly efficient.
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Cleveland will receive two prominent young infielders in Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez and a pair of Mets prospects — right-hander Josh Wolf and outfielder Isaiah Greene. -MLBTR
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Dumped half a contract.
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The Mets are going all in.
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He's not great, but he's been pretty steady: Not counting 2020... 28-33 starts for 6 straight seasons. 159-188 IP each of those 6 seasons ERA+ between 95 and 117 the last 5 seasons with only that one season below 102 (2018). His WHIP has been between 1.15 and 1.24 the last 5 years, except in 2018 (1.345). His career ERA is 3.92 and FIP of 4.12. He walks a few too many batters (3.1 BB/9), but he K's close to 9 per 9 IP (8.6). From 2015-2020, he is 32nd in IP. Out of 77 pitchers with 600+ IP in the last 6 years, he places: 39th in fWAR at 11.6 (about 1.9 per season) 25th in WHIP at 1.23 (same as Trevor bauer, J Paxton and Sonny Gray) 35th in ERA- at 92 40th in K-BB% at 14.5% 65th in xFIP at 4.53 If you figure 30 number one starters in MLB, ranking 39th in WAR could be viewed as him being a solid #2 starter. I'd say he is easily a solid #3.
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He will also turn 41 before the season starts.
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So, if career WAR is your choice of value, Sale is better than anyone on the Yanks. Erod Rocks, too. You know there is more to judging value and projected value than career WAR and just fWAR from a shortened season. I can see why you choose the 4 year fWAR sample, not 1, 2 or 3 of bWAR... bWAR: 2020 Eovaldi 1.3/ Montgomery 0.1 bWAR: 2019-2020: Eovaldi 1.3/ Montgomer 0.0 bWAR: 2018-2020: Eovaldi 2.1/ Montgomer 0.5 Montgomery beats Eovaldi 2.9 to 2.1 from '17-'20 in bWAR.)
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RED=most contract years over 30... 5 Sale 31-35 years old/contract began '20 4 Eovaldi 28-31/ '19 (1.3 bWAR in 2 yrs) 7 Price 30-35/ '16 (10.5 bWAR in 1st 4 yrs) 4 Porcello 27-30/ '16 (1.4 bWAR) 4 Buchholz 27-30/ '12 (5.9 bWAR) 5 Lackey 31-35/ '10 (3.4 bWAR 1 w STL, but then 8.7 next 2 yrs after contract) 5 Lester 25-29/ '09 (18.6 bWAR) 3 Beckett 27-29/ '07 (9.3 bWAR) 3 Clement 30-32/ '05 (0.3 bWAR in 2 yrs) 4 Foulke 31-34/ '04 (4.1 WAR in 3 yrs) -
Best Sox pitchers by fWAR since 2002 by age groups: (note: this is an imperfect way to view age groups, as some pitchers were not with the Sox for the full time period.) 22-25 10.8 Lester (91) 7.0 ERod (88) 4.9 Buch (62) 3.6 Doubront (59) 26-29 15.2 Beckett (122) 13.8 Sale (59) 13.2 Lester (129) 11.3 Porcello (127) 8.0 Dice-K (98) 6.2 B Arroyo (61) 5.6 Buch (87) 4.6 Lowe (32) 3.7 ERod (34) 3.2 Pom (56) 2.7 Miley (32) 2.3 Kelly (41) 30-33 19.7 Pedro (92 GS) 10.6 Price (98) 6.1 Beckett (72) 4.6 Lowe (66) 4.2 Lackey (61) 3.8 Lester (21) 3.7 Buch (39) 3.6 Sale (25) 34-37 7.7 Wakefield (78) 6.5 Schilling (32) 4.5 Lackey (50) 1.8 Burkett (29) 38+ 8.6 Schilling (66) 7.8 Wakefield (138) 6.1 Uehara (0) 3.0 Wells (30) 2.7 Burkett (30)
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How many pitchers had one good season, even if it was their first and only one, and never turned out very good? He's a question mark. A big one. So is Eovaldi. If I had to choose one for just 2021, it's a close call.
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"The only way?"
