moonslav59

No, but you responded to a post that mentioned Allen & Kopech, and Allen does offer more hope than a lot of pitchers on the Sox roster, right now..

He's 24 but only has about 1,000 PAs in pro ball. His .852 OPS jumps out at me, and he was even better in AA (.997). It's his defense and lack of long term experience at any position that will keep him in the minors for most or all of 2021, unless he can DH in Boston. He could be viewed as midseason ML depth for 2021.

He already spoke to this. I can't find where he posted it.

Allen and Kopech offer much better hope, but we won't know what they do for years to come. It's funny, to me, how all those past prospects are now viewed as s***, but the ones we have now are gold. Two weeks ago, who would have said no to a Houck for Kopech trade?

That's a more revealing question, to me, and gets at the crux of how to view DD's legacy.

That is a good question, and the hindsight does seem to say "NO WAY," if you figure we needed the trades to get the 2018 ring. (I think we did-many of them, anyways.) It's hard to imagine us winning it all without everyone he added, but one could easily argue we might have without several of the moves. Some players weren't even all that good in 2018, and some did poorly in the playoffs. Although almost all the prospects we traded are having bad seasons, this year, their control time is still going on many of them. If one can argue we could have won without Sale, then surely one could think we'd be better off with Moncada and Kopech, even if we might have traded them, later, for something good. I'd like to have Margot and Allen, now, but neither looks all that great, now. Kimbrel did great for us, but we likely would have made the 2018 playoffs without him and his playoff performance left a lot to be desired. Pomeranz did very little in 2018, and could easily be viewed as a negative that year, but Esperanza has been hurt forever. I'd still like to have Espi in our system than not. The Thornburg and Smith deals looked good, at the time, but if we are looking in hindsight, they did not work out. I'd like to have Dubon, and Travis Shaw played well for a stretch after the deal. I see what DD did. He went for broke and built a team that could win despite having off seasons or horrific playoff performances from several stars. That's one way to insure a ring- overkill. I said all along, I was fine with what he was doing as long as we got a ring, and we did, so I'm not going to roast him for doing it. However, I also knew at the time, that he was sacrificing our future for a 4-5 year window. I was fine with that then, despite the fact that we didn't really get 5 great years. We got the ring, and DD was a big part of getting it. I'm not going to sugar coat the fact that he's also a big part of why we are where we are now- the cliff. It is what it is. It was what it was.

Sale will likely miss 2-3 months. Eovaldi rarely goes a season without missing 2-4 months. Yes, ERod may be done forever and could even be non-tendered. Add 2-3+ 2-4 + 0-6 and you get 4-13 out of 18 total. The over under on total months from these 3 might not even be at the half way mark of 9. I'd take the under on 10 months.

Aybar may be not be on the 40 man roster after we add rule 5's and free agents. Wilson is no big deal, except for our super short OF depth, right now.

At the risk of sounding hypocritical, I do not trust dWAR numbers for catchers. I'm not big on SB% being used as the main tool, either. CERA is number 1, and for many years I have documented Vaz struggles in this area when compared to other catchers on the team with the same pitchers (mostly starters). Pitch framing and blocking tough pitches is probably second, and Vaz seemed to have more than his share of PB+WP over the years. Maybe he's improved, this year. VTek was not viewed as a great defender until after age 29-30. Maybe the Ray use metrics that show Vaz as a plus on defense. I tend to think of him as a minus on D and a plus on O, when compared to other catchers.

The Rays usually, and rightfully so, look for defensive catchers. I don't see Vaz fitting that profile, but reports said they wanted Vaz.

I'm probably higher on Wong than he deserves, but I'm wondering if we might just go with what we have at catcher, without Vaz. If we end up being in the race, maybe we add a catcher mid season. I know that's not ideal, as we'd want a catcher to build a relationship with the staff before the playoffs. To me, we need pitching, pitching, pitching, centerfield.

So, we go with Plawecki, Grullon & Wong or pick up a catcher? Who is the Charlie Morton of this winter's FA class?

LOL. How could I have forgotten JD? (Maybe his 2020 season?) Okay, so we are one for six.

Our problem was the first year or two or three were pretty much all let down or horrific letdowns. HRam went from having a .907 OPS his previous 2 seasons to: .717 year one and .776 in his 3+ yrs with the Sox Pablo went from having a .794 OPS with SF to .658 year one and .646 in his 2+ seasons with the Sox Price went from being a horse 133 ERA+ in 866 IP in 4 yrs to 112 ERA+ year one and 75 IP year two and a 118 ERA+ in 4 seasons with us. Eovaldi was no "horse" when we re-signed him, so giving us 110 IP over the first 2 seasons with us is no surprise, but the ERA+ of 90 sucks. It was 112 in 2018- not counting the playoffs. The Sale deal has just begun, so the jury is still out. He still has 3-4 years left, buy year one saw zero IP'd. We're basically oh for five on the "first 2-3 years" of all our last major 5 signings.

Yes, I meant the Sale re-signing. You all know how much I loved that trade. When we signed HRam, I thought he'd play 3B, and I liked the idea. I barely had time to think about it before they announced signing Pablito. I was okay with the HRam, Sale, Price and Eovaldi signings. In hindsight, none look good.

Looks like we might end up with the 3rd to 5th worst record. That will still be the best draft pick we've had since 1967 (3rd pick), assuming they don't mess with the order. We've never picked higher than 3rd. 3rd 1967 (Mike Garman) 4th 1966 (Ken Brett) 5th 1965 (Billy Conigliaro) 7th 1993 (Nixon) 7th 2013 (T Ball) 7th 2015 (Beni)

I hadn't noticed, but yes! WOW! (Only 17 IP, though.)

I'm lad we got 5 years of Verdugo plus Downs and Wong for 1 shortened season of Betts. I'm glad we have the $16M budget space from the Price part of the deal, but I do think it's entirely possible Price pitches well enough to have earned that much or more. I just don't see having a 35-36 year old pitcher making $31M a year for 3 years as being an essential part to a rebuild. I'm hopeful the next players we sign end up being more durable and productive than Price, Eovaldi, Sale, Pablito & HRam. Tht's 5 massive contracts with very little to show for it.

True, and the weird thing is neither are most of the guys he got back.

I think the 3rd year is big for 34 year olds, and I still think the Dodgers would have preferred not to take Price at that reduced cost. I said it was close. I'm not sure why this has generated so much discussion. Not mush else to talk about, I guess.

soxprospects.com September 21, 2020 at 4:32 PM Scouting Report Update: Jacob Wallace Last Friday, the Red Sox announced they had acquired Jacob Wallace from Colorado as the player to be named later for Kevin Pillar. The deal now stands at Pillar and cash considerations for Wallace and international bonus slot money. Wallace was Colorado's third-round pick in 2019 out of the University of Connecticut and is set to debut in the SoxProspects.com top 20 in the coming days. This makes him the fourth prospect acquired at the trade deadline to debut in the current top 20. Here is Wallace's initial scouting report, compiled from available data and reports, as well as our scouting sources across the game. Physical Description: Average, proportional frame with minimal remaining projection. Above-average athlete. Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. High-effort delivery. High leg kick, but gets low coming forward. Long arm action behind before he whips his arm forward. Fastball: 93-95 mph. Tops out at 97 mph. Pitch shows life and tail. Pitch jumps on hitters. Command and control need refinement. Potential plus offering. Slider: 84-86 mph. Long, sweeping pitch with above-average depth. True swing-and-miss pitch with major league out pitch potential with development. Potential above-average offering. Changeup: Third pitch that he will use on occasion with late, arm-side movement. Did not throw the pitch in college and only added it after signing. Career Notes: Originally from Methuen, Massachusetts, he starred at Methuen High before becoming the closer at UConn. Pitched for Bourne in the 2018 Cape Cod League, where he was named the co-recipient of the John Claffey New England Top Prospect Award and was named a CCBL All-Star. Summation: Potential relief type. Ceiling of a closer. Fastball/slider combination is very intriguing in a bullpen role. Potential for two above-average pitches at least and a unique delivery that gives hitters a very different look on the mound. Unclear at this point if the Red Sox will try to develop him as a starter, as he does also have a changeup. Command and control need refinement in order to reach his potential. Very intense on the mound, always competes.

It's certainly nice to see some hopes and bright promises as the season nears its end. I'm more hopeful now than I was earlier this year, but the jury is still out on many of the players we are talking about: Houck, Pivetta, Valdez, Dalbec, Munoz & Arroyo. Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, and I have a good amount of optimism about our future, but there's a lot to learn about everyone of these guys. The good thing is, there are 6 that are looking good, and we may not need even 4 of them to come through.

Remember all those suggested salary dump suggested trades of Price or Eovaldi for Wil Myers? Myers is flirting with a 1,000 OPS, this season.

The differences between the two are too extreme to make a good comp. That being said, there are plenty of instances where injury- prone pitchers have gotten fat deals and sometimes for 3 or more years, but how many at his age? I've never argued $16M x 3 is an extreme overpay, so it seems like this whole debate has morphed into something I never intended it to be. I get how several posters think the Dodgers wanted Price at $16M/3. I disagree, but I don't think it's a crazy position to hold. Once can find several examples of one GM who seemingly pays someone more or way more than some of us think anyone else would or should pay. Can anyone find other 34 year old SP'ers who pitched about 63 GS'd or 360 IP his previous 3 seasons with an ERA+ of about 122 that got a contract for $16M x 3? I'm not saying there's nobody that fits that bill. My guess is some GM did it, but I'm curious, if it has happened in recent years.

We don't have a 40 man roster crunch, so even if we add 7-9 FAs, we'll have guys like Lin sticking around. I count 15-17 players at about the same low value as Lin on our 40 man roster.