moonslav59

Oh, I understand how we got here, and I'm on board with the plan- both near term and long term. As a fan, I love to watch great defense, especially at SS and CF, and somewhat for RF and 2B (3B). If I could make one minor change, I'd have gone after Marisnick not Marwin. If the team analytics guys like EHern on D at 2B, who am I to say they are wrong. Renfroe is not bad on D, and Cordero has a ton of promise, so we didn't add anti-defense, but losing Betts and then JBJ hurts. (I'm hopeful Devers goes back to improving on D.)

5-6 IP per start equates to about 2-3 walks per start.

Could we see a hot hitting Chavis in LF?

I'm not sure what your point is. On paper, it looks like our defense is bad. We have hopes at a few positions where players are young and still learning and have room to grow, or have shown flashes of improvement. I'd say, out of our starters, only Dalbec, Devers and Cordero are largely unknowns or have shows signs they can be plus, but have yet to do so for a full year or more, in Raphale's case. Bogey, like Jeter, makes the plays hit right to him. He's solid on that, but his range is poor and very likely will never become a plus. I don't want to get into Vaz, because I've beaten that horse to death several times, but he is pretty well known. EHern has moved around so much, it's hard to know, for sure, just how good he is at just one position, and there is a wide gap between what his metrics show at 2B and Cora calling him "the best." Arroyo is nothing special on D. I doubt he surprises, either way. Verdugo moving to a new park makes it a little more interesting, but he's been a plys defender in the OF and has improved over the years to the point where I think he's a plus in RF and maybe a slight plus in CF. Renfroe has shown he's about as average as average can get. He'd be better in LF than Fenway's spacious RF. I'm not claiming to be an authority on this, and many of these guys have not been on the Sox very long, so I can certainly be wrong. Do you think our defense is average or better?

The guy has 'all the tools," but we know that does not always lead to success. Until he puts together a full season or two, we can't really use his numbers. We can trust scouting reports and observations and look at his minor league numbers and reports. Here are some reports I found: Originally an error-prone shortstop, he moved to the outfield last year and was a natural as a flycatcher, showing excellent range and throwing ability with 60-grade speed and a 60-grade arm that work well in center field. He's also exceptionally fast, ranking anywhere from the 89th to 98th percentile in sprint speed from 2017-19. His instincts remain a work in progress in center field... A former shortstop, he owns a great arm for the outfield (so he can play right field at the highest level). He also flashed impressive center-field defense, which might simply follow from how quickly he moves around. Observers have pointed out that Cordero’s outfield defense can still look a little raw and unpolished, but it’s important to consider that he entered the Padres’ system as an infielder, and he only started playing in the outfield in 2015, and in center field in 2016. Cordero is a positional convert. Having long been a shortstop before, we can tell he has the arm and the foot speed to make it all work. The early big-league results were encouraging.

The players that are going to play a lot for the Sox have been around a while, except for maybe Cordero, who I mentioned it being hard to know how good he is on defense. I'm not rating Downs and Arauz, and I mentioned Dalbec "could" become a plus. They have not had much ML time, but we can learn a lot about defense in the minors. Is Bogey suddenly going to acquire plus range? (No.) Can Devers play like 2019, again? (Maybe) Do we know who Vaz, Renfroe, Marwin and others who have been around a while can do on defense? (Yes) Can they improve or get worse? (Yes, but usually not by much in a single season, and the older you get, the more "known" you are.)

How can anyone know?

We aren't basing our defensive projections on any ST'ing games. These guys have been around a while.

I'll bet he will be a plus in RF for Boston, this year. The large RF will allow him to make more plays, and he's a plus already, IMO. He might be average in CF, but if Renfroe is in RF, he may make more plays.

I'm well aware of these numbers and have argued the Bogey is a bottom tier SS on defense. One can argue he is one of the worst FT SS's on defense since Jeter. I do believe that Devers has the skills to be a plus, and he showed signs of that in 2019. He could also continue being a minus. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

Nice memories.

Dalbec could end up being a plus on defense. Verdugo is a plus in RF- I'm not sure about CF. Renfroe is okay in LF, and Devers could be a plus, this year at 3B, but it's hard to count on that. Many feel Vaz is a plus, and he probably is, if you don't count how much he gets out of the staff. Bogey and Arroyo are not pluses. EHern shows minus at 2B and plus in CF with the metrics, but Cora thinks he's great at 2B. Cordero is a wild card. He has all the tools, but has yet to have a long enough look to see what he can do. If Chavis is playing, it's a minus. There is a chance our defense could be better than expected, but expectations are very low.

Good one!

Tiny Sample Sizes Sox ST OPS after today's game: 2.144 Kiki 1.462 Chavis 1.418 Munoz 1.333 Downs 1.167 Vedugo .801 Renfroe .700 Gonzalez .647 Devers .500 Vazquez .500 Arroyo

Didn’t Cora say he wanted to focus on defense. That might have meant in terms of drills and practice - not roster construction, which is more on the GM?

He's the kind of "gem" Bloom often found with the Rays.

I'd prefer EHern in CF and Arryo-Chavis-Marwin at 2B, but Cordero in CF fixes the LF and RF issues. He also may not be as bad as you make him out to be. He has a small sample size and the top skills needed to be a plus CF'er.

...and people bashed Sox management for extending Sale, Eovaldi and Pearce. Damned if you do-damned if you don't. MLB GMs can never escape bashing.

When you say "below average hitter," what are you thinking average is? Average MLB player, starter, center fielder? He's close to average, but I think JBJ was a plus hitter. Yes, he had horrific streaks and some amazing hot streaks. He had some "off years," which were actually very close to "average" among his peers. The guy was a plus hitter, but those frustrating and long slumps burned themselves into many a memory bank. It's fine calling him "average," but I view him as being above average. If you cut him some slack and not count his first 520 PAs, or so, his OPS from 2015-2020 (6 years) was .769 (101 OPS+). That ranks him 22nd among 59 CF'ers from 2015-2020 with 1,000+ PAs. That's close to being top third. His wRC+ was 102 for those 6 years. That ranked him 25th out of top 59 OF'ers in CF.

1. We didn't lose the whole OF overnight. It took two seasons. 2. We often lost 4-5 star players within a 1-2 year span, and we often lost much more over a 3 year span (sometimes near total roster make-over in 3-4 years). 3. I remember the "holy crap- a brand new rotation," which was followed up by a ring not long afterwards. My point was that our teams have been in near constant flux for two decades and with fantastic success. I felt you were saying this turnover is something new and not good.

True, but there are time when doctors present two or more options for treatment, and the player often chooses the one that does not involve surgery. I don't blame the player, but the results often end up where the players gets the surgery, later, anyway.

Exactly. Why even try? Plus, why even wait. The sooner he has it done, the sooner he's back.

Maybe, like many other pitchers, his other pitches improved greatly and he would have always been a better pitcher than a thrower. It's always hard to know anything like this, for sure, but your point is well taken.

He did have higher K rates in years afterwards and one season with a higher ERA+. It's hard to judge how much better he was in the sample size you speak of, because ut was rather small, and it was before batters had a chance to learn how to hit him.

True. It's actually more than a third better.