It's hard to know, but one thing is for sure. He wasn't set on going to free agency, as he stated he was. Now, maybe this whole covid uncertainty changed his mind, but you are probably right.
LA might be more to his liking.
I hate to see him go. I'm on record as saying I'd have offered more than he just signed for, and who knows if the Dodgers would have countered or if Betts would have still signed with LA, but to me, he's worth $31M x 12. In terms of revenue generating value, he's probably worth over $50M a year for several years. If his skill level drops more quickly than I expect, he'll likely still be a draw to fans with that smile and style.
If his value ends up being something like this, he's worth it:
By year
$50, 50, 45, 45 ($190 the first 4 yrs)
$40, 35, 30, 25 ($130 the middle 4 yrs)
$20, 20, 10, 10 ($60M the last 4 yrs)