moonslav59

"better" with the Yanks (up for debate) does not mean "no bueno" for the Sox.

This surprises me, as Brice is out of options. I had him on the top of my DFA list, so that shows how little I know about how Bloom views our bubble players.

I never think of anyone as "untouchable," but certainly there are players I'd avoid trading, unless the offer was right. (Devers is top of that list for me.) It's hard to know how other GMs value our players, but to get great players, you have to give up a lot. I'm not sure now is the time to trade top prospects for a #1 or #2 level SP'er. The names might be Casas and/or Downs, DHern or Mata and maybe more. I'm not high on Chavis or Chatham, but my guess is not many GMs are either, and we certainly won't get a very good pitcher for just that package. Maybe Dalbec & ??? can get someone better. Not many GM want to trade "arms of the future." Why would they?

Yes, I doubt the Rays are shopping Yarbrough or Fairbanks, especially inter-division. Sonny Gray's value on Trade Values is higher than I think he's worth, so I haven't explored that option. I've made several for Tailon, including an expansion of the 3-way deal you suggested. The comments made on your trade (Vaz to TB, Edwards to TB and Taillon to the Sox) mentioned that maybe the Rays wouldn't want to pay Vaz's contract, which might seem high to them, so I add Kierimaier coming to us, and someone coming from TB to us- maybe it was Yarbrough.

The hardest to evaluate are the younger prospects. What kind of workouts did some do vs others? Nobody really saw line, in-game scenarios, so it's easy to assume almost all stayed at the same level or regressed, but their now a year older( and "wiser?" Probably, not). Some might improve due to their body's maturation or by resting an ailing arm or knee more than they might otherwise had done. We could see some very sloppy minor league games to start the season. We could see a rash of injuries.

That's all we've been doing the last few months!

He looked very promising in 2019, on defense, so I'm not sure you can know, for sure, anything about where he ends up. It's not a sure thing he follows Pablito's exercise and dietary plans.

No doubt. For years I was talking about moving him to 1B. I've seen enough flashes of plus defense- for long time periods- to give up on him, now. That being said, he may be our 1Bman, next year.

In terms of just 2021, probably not, but I'm not sure henry wants a bunch of large and long deals signed. Since they may view this as a rebuild year, they could also decide to push back the clock on going over by one more year and try to stay under the line again. That way, if they spend big next winter, it's only year 1 for 2022- not year 2. I see a guy like Kluber fitting in with a team that could use some lightening in a bottle. For all we know, Kluber could win the Cy Young in 2021, and we still miss the playoffs. He's got more upside than the guys I mentioned, but is floor is lower, too. I'm not saying don't sign him, especially if we can go over the tax line by $10-19M or so, and I'm fine with a bunch of one year deals, but I'd like to see our bigger ticket items being made more with 2022 and beyond in mind.

I don't really want a LF'er, either. We need a CF'er a good RF'er (for Fenway) and move Verdugo to CF. I have never been in favor of moving Beni to CF. This idea does bring up a good point. I've been looking for a CF/RF'er who is "over-priced" to the team trading him, but not bad for us plus a decent to good pitcher. Most teams do not want to part with pitchers, so maybe looking for higher-priced pitchers with a tag-along CF'er, 2Bman or good prospect may be an easier way to make this sort of deal. I'm not sure the one year deal for a pitcher is the worst part of the suggested trade. We may sign someone like Kluber to a 1 year deal for about the same as Cobb is due. If we only have to give up a player with a value of 3-4, as suggested, I'd think about trading Chatham for those two.

The idea is you get a very good pitcher, let's say, for less of a return, because you took on a salary the other team wanted to dump. The salary dump player need not be a bad player (like Kierimaier) and can fill a need we have- like CF. The player may not even seem over-priced to a team like the Sox. Kierimaier is paid about what we paid JBJ, this year. Instead of having to give up D Hern and/or Dalbec for a Rays SP'er, maybe we give up Chavis and Chatham for Kierimaier and Yarbrough or Chrinos. Does that not look like a better deal for us?

Yes, that's why I said "if" our budget is $20-25M. I would not compare spending $12M on Kluber to $1M on Mazza. The comp should be Kluber vs Quintana, Tanaka and a few others. We might also get a couple guys like Porcello for what Kluber costs. Maybe...

I really think we pull off a trade for a somewhat costly CF'er who plays plus defense (Kieremaier, Inciarte, Cain) and use the salary dump aspect of the trade to also get a RP'er or starter or maybe a 2Bman or a farm upgrade. I'm thinking Chavis and or Chatham may be part of that deal, but maybe I'm dreaming. If we pull of a deal like this, we can use all our financial resources to add pitching.

So, it's more like 3-6% have done anything substantial.

I can't see us signing him, unless we think he's healthy. I like the idea, but his health concerns make it very risky. We already have 3 questionable SP'ers: Sale, ERod & Eovaldi. If we only have $20-25M to spend, this summer, is spending half on Kluber the best we can do? I'm not saying "no," but this idea scares me.

"Get things done" as in what? Compete for a wild card slot and maybe miss out? We likely will spend less than half of what was spent before the 2013 season. We may have more high need areas than that team had going into the previous off season. I can't see us getting highly competitive on a $15-25M spending budget. I can't see us trading away the future to get better for just now. Unless Henry approves us going maybe $19M over the tax line for 2021, I'm thinking 2nd place may be wishful thinking.

Dalbec certainly has not proven he's here to stay, but decent 1Bmen are usually easy to acquire, mid season, if needed, so we'll start the season with Dalbec (and some Chavis) at 1B, IMO. We may also roll the dice on Arroyo, Munez & Co. at 2B before looking elsewhere. I doubt Chatham makes the opening days roster, unless we add no infielders and there's an injury. I think CF is a position we have to add to, this winter. I do not think Duran will be ML ready by opening day. Duran or Chatham may become part of the puzzle at some point during the year. Basically, about 90% of our available resources should go towards pitching. Yes, both SP'ers and RP'ers. We will likely limit Houck's innings and maybe even his time on the big squad, so as to add a year of service to his tenure with the Sox. With ERod & Sale being question marks, and Eovaldi always one, we should add one durable innings eater and maybe another very good SP'er and/or 2-3 decent SP'ers that can fight for the remaining 1-2 jobs, if and when everyone gets healthy. I can see us trading for a closer and signing a decent #2 man. We may even add another 1-2 pen arms on top of those two.

Devers seems to be improving, despite the bad stretches. Pablito got worse and worse. Devers came up to the bigs a year earlier than Sandoval, too. UZR/150 first 3 years over 800 innings: Pablo (age 22-24) -5.7 -0.5 19.3 (then, all negatives, except for one year) Career -1.2 Devers -5.2 2.4 n/a in 2020 (-10.6 in 475 innings) Career -3.6 I'm hopeful Devers can be more like 2019 and even improve on it.

I mentioned something about following a similar path as 2013 on another thread, too, but we I doubt we have the spending budget of that winter. Maybe not even half.

Exactly. 90% of teams have done nothing significant or major.

I think Kluber is worth a shot, but we also need to get a durable innings-eater, too.

That is exactly the types of trades I envision and have been playing around with on the trade values site. You have to think the Rays would love to trade Kierimaier, but interdivisional trades can get problematic.

Casas may be 3 years away and is far from a sure bet. I expect Devers to stay at 3B- this is something I did not expect early in his career or after his first ML season. I also think he will likely have at least one season much better than 2019- YES, MUCH better.

Good point, and I was rather shocked to see Morton get $15M/1.

I'd give him at least another full season at 3B. If he looks sketchy, this year, on defense, he can start taking some reps at 1B, work out at 1B over next winter and maybe give 1B a try in 2022. He could always get some game in at 3B, too. He's actually looked better at 3B than I first expected, but he seems very streaky. He makes some plays very few third basemen make, but then he'll throw a ball away on an easy out.