moonslav59

Another advantage might be to start a lefty for 1-2 innings, then bring in a righty for 3-5 innings- or vice versa.

Tanaka is the closest. We need durability, right now. We also need someone who is good. It would be nice, if it was the same guy, but those type are very costly.

Who would you rather sign, this winter? $18M/2 Porcello $18M/2 Lester

Had we signed him to 5 years, it would have been for something like $15-17M more. 2 more years- maybe $13-16M more per extra year. 3 more years- maybe $12-15M more per extra year. As pitcher's age, their pay usually is lowered.

So, a $125M/7 year deal vs the $82M/4 he got would have amounted to giving him $43M for his last 3 years ($14.3M a year x 3 years). Once again, do you wish we had done that over the $82.5M/4 extension we signed him to?

Makes sense to me, so it probably won't happen.

Thanks, I went back and added a few of the big extensions in blue. Check it out.

I guess some think we should have signed him to 5 or more years.

I'm not getting your point.

The Yanks are clearly going all out, this winter! We are doomed!

Are you for signing Jon Lester to $27M/2 (no adjustment made for inflation due to the COVID affect)? He's the same age Dempster was, when we signed him, and he has had many more seasons over a 2.2 bWAR than Dempster had (9 to 5).

Yes, and he proved he was barely worth $20M per year in prime, and most of that was fueled by one monster year. Would you have rather signed him for $125M/7 or $80M/4?

Okay, he was a 3 starter. Look, he was post prime. Expecting him to have a WAR of 2.6, because he had done it from 2008 to 2012. The guy was 36 years old. Two years at $13M each was a lot of cash for a player way past prime who only had a bWAR, yes "B" WAR, of over 2.2 four times from 2001 to 2012 (12 years!). He did okay for us in 2013, but it's not the type of signing I like.

Your combination of seasons 19 & 20 includes the 2019 season in prime. It does nothing for or against my point.

Yes, I hated the signing. My philosophy is that the best way to build a winning rotation is by rebuilding from the top (#1 or #2 pitchers not #4 and #5's). That does not mean some signings of 4 and 5 starters don't ever work out. We were lucky he retired. I don't recall anyone thinking they wish he didn't. Also, I'm often wrong.

He's post prime. Just because I'd prefer we signed him to $80M/4 rather than $120M0r 125M/7 does not mean I have something against him.

I wouldn't have wanted Porcello's contract to be 7 years long. The last 3 years would be post-prime. Will Porcello get $20M a year, this winter? No. I don't put much stock into 60 game sample sizes. I barely put much into selected 162 game sample sizes.

Here are the bWARs of Porcello & Price's 4 years under their long term deals: Porcello paid $80M/4 and Price paid $124M/4... 8.7 Porcello 10.4 Price fWAR: 11.3 Porcello 10.6 Price Average the two: 10.0 Porcello 10.5 Price

One could argue he was a $40M pitcher, that year, and indeed, fangraphs had his value at $40.9M in 2016. Here are the values they assigned to Porcello for those 4 years after his initial $13.8M valued season before the signing at $20M x 4: $40.9M $16.2M $19.3M $14.2M Total: 90.6M for 4 years (22.7M/yr) . Paid $80M for 4 years ($20M/yr). As a comp, here is what Price's numbers were after posting $42.5M & $53.6M seasons before signing with the Sox for $31M x 7: $35.2M $11.7M $19.3M $18.8M Total: $85M for 4 years ($21.3M/yr). He was paid $31M/yr.

True, and if you invest your dollar "today" well, it can be a huge plus. There is something to getting that deferred money, too, especially gto those types of people who blow their money away as soon as they get it.

I agree. And, if you look at any of those 2013 signings, in isolation, and not counting how they were needed for the 2013 ring, they all looked like bad signings. I like Kimmi's philosophy.It's hard not to like it, but I think I feel like large and long signings are needed more than she does. Her point about Porcello is a good one. I loved that signing, too. All of his contract years were withing prime range. The dollars per year seemed high, but the length was just right. Had we signed Porcello to 5-7 years- OUCH!

Here's a history of our biggest FA signings by winter: (All 4+ year deals in red) (All 4+ year extensions in blue) 19-20: $145M/5 Chris Sale $120M/6 Bogaerts $6M/1 Martin Perez $4.3/1 Kevin Pillar $3/1 Mitch Moreland $3/1 Martin Peraza 18-19: $68M/4 Nathon Eovaldi $13.6M/4 Vazquez $6.3M/1 Steve Pearce 17-18: $110M/5 JD Martinez $13M/2 Moreland $8M/2 E. Nunez 16-17: $5.5M/1 Moreland 15-16: $217M/7 David Price $13M/1 Buchholz $13M/2 Chris Young 14-15: $95M/5 Pablo Sandoval $88M/4 Hanley Ramirez $83M/4 Porcello $18M/2 Koji Uehara $9.5M/1 J Masterson 13-14: $110M/8 Pedroia $73M/7 Rusney Castillo $32M/2 Mike Napoli $13M/1 John Lester $10.1M/1 S Drew $9.5M/2 Edward Mujica $8.3M/1 AJ Pierzynski 12-13: $39M/3 Shane Victorino $26.5/2 Ryan Dempster $26M/2 David Ortiz $10M/2 Jonny Gomes $9.5M/1 S Drew $6.2M/1 David Ross $5M/1 M. Napoli $4.3M/1 Uehara 11-12: $154M/7 Adrian Gonzalez $30M/4 Buchholz $14.6M/1 David Ortiz $6M/1 Marco Scutaro $3M/1 Cody Ross $3.5/2 Nick Punto 10-11: $142/7 Carl Crawford $12M/2 Bobby Jenks $3M/1 Dan Wheeler 9-10: John Lackey $83M/5, Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron, Marco Scutaro, D Mac, A Embree 8-9: Youkilis ($41M/4), Pedey ($41M/6),Lester ($30M/5), John Smoltz, Brad Penny, J Varitek, T Saito, M Kotsay, R Baldelli 7-8: Lowell ($38M/3), Schilling, Jeff Bailey, Mike Timlin, S Atchison, D Mirabelli, B Colon 6-7: JD Drew, Dicea-K Ortiz ($52M/4), Beckett ($30M/3) Julio Lugo, Alex Cora, Mirabelli, J Piniero 5-6: Alez Gonzalez, J Taveraz, Rudy Seanez, Gabe Kapler, C Breslow, Willie Harris, JT Snow 4-5: Edgar Renteria, David Wells, Matt Clement, Varitek, Wade Miller, D McCarty, M Myers, J Halama, Mirabelli 3-4: K Foulke, Frank Castillo, Pokey Reese, Bobby Jones, M Timlin, Ellis Burks, G Kapler 2-3: David Ortiz, Bill Mueller, Ramiro Mendoza, James Lofton, M Timlin, Chad Fox, B Haselman 1-2: Johnny Damon, John Burkett, Rickey Henderson, James Lofton, Damon Bufford, Rey Sanchez, Michael Coleman 0-1: Manny Ramirez, Hideo Nomo, Tim Wakefield, David Cone, Frank Castillo, Pete Schourek 99-0: Jeff Fassero, Gary Gaetti 98-99: Jose Offerman, Mark Portugal, R Cormier, R. Martinez, Pat Rapp 97-98: Eckersley, Brett Saberhagen, Darren Lewis, Keith Mitchell, Brian Shouse, Jim Corsi As you can see, the Sox went 3 or more years without any large & long deals several times over the last 25 years. The 2012-2013 winter is the sort of deals in line with Kimmi's philosophy. For people who think going 2 years in a row with no major signings is a sign that Henry is getting cheap, this list should persuade you otherwise. It is my position that Henry will okay spending large, again, when the time is right. With Bauer & Springer being the only big prizes, this winter, I am all aboard with the idea that the time is not now to spend big. That does not mean I want us to sit on our hands. I think the time, now, is to find several mid-range bargain deals that will give us some key role players for the next few years, as well as a few shorter term deals that will bridge us to some of our rising prospects or to a point where making a big splash signing is warranted and the right guy is available. I don't see "the right guy" available, this winter. Big extensions added in BLUE

In general, could we not build solid and consistently productive and highly competitive teams without so many big splash signings? Signing more mid level free agents and fewer high level ones? I get what you are saying: we are not going to get top talent by offering them $40M/yr for 3 years vs some other team offering them $35M/yr (or even $30M/yr) for 6+ years. I doubt that has ever happened, too.

The only examples I can think of are players who sign 1 year deals hoping they can strike it big the following winter, but I can't think of specific examples of players who could have signed for 3+ years but took a 1-2 year deal. The fact is, the vast majority of high impact players take large and long deals, and if we ever want another high impact player, we will have to splurge at that point. I agree with Kimmi's philosophy, and even she had admitted that there comes times when you have to make a big splash. She just wants them spread out more and for as short a term as possible.

I could certainly agree strong arguments could be made that 3 divisional teams looks better than us, on paper, as of right now. Winter is not over, though. Let's see what happens. The Jays seem to be looking to improve. The Rays may be looking more long term than short term. The Yanks are the great unknown, right now. I think the Sox will have a very active winter. What they do and the value they add may end up being fiercely debated, but I'm guessing we do more than any pther AL East team, this winter.