moonslav59

I don't disagree, but are you for trading Downs, Casas, Duran, Chatham & Mata for Castillo, Castellenos & Moustakas? Will we be a contender by trading our farm away- again?

I updated the list to include every team but the Stankees...

I was firmly against the Kimbrel and Pompom deals. I thought the Price deal was needed and he was about as sure a bet as one could ever get. The Kinsler, Nunez and Thornburg trades were nothing outlandish. I loved the Sale deal. The Eovaldi and Pierce trades worked like charms.

We're just saying that's what it would take- NOT to do it.

The contract cost is better. I would not say Castillo is better than... Chris Freakin' Sale! at the time of his trade.

And, the 3 arb year contracts look better than Sale's contract at the time of his trade.

Why doesn't Cincy just fold? I can see dumping salary, but trading Castillo is just giving up on the now and the future. He's got 3 arb years left.

Although this trade was not accepted, the value exchange was exactly equal: Downs, Casas, Chavis & Ward for Castillo, Castellanos, Moustakas, Miley & Akiyama

I'm surprised so many people see Duran as the answer to our 2021 OF needs. To me, he may become available by mid season, but he's still learning the OF position and how to hit. Some of his best offensive stretches were aided by an extremely high BAbip. Sure, his speed helped him get a lot of infield hits, and that could continue, but the kid has a lot to prove on offense before he's deemed ML ready. Great speed is a big asset in CF, but I'm not sure how "plus" he is on defense, just yet, either. I'm not down on the kid, but he has not shown he is ML ready for April, 2021. I don't even think it's close. Even a great spring training may not convince me. I'm certainly not trading Beni with the idea of having Renfroe FT in LF and Duran FT in CF. The chances of something "negative" happening are higher than a "positive" result. Even if Duran does prove he belongs in the bigs by opening day, and does well, keeping Beni still makes sense, since Renroe vs RHPs is a possible problem area. Duran put up great numbers in A- ball at age 21, which is not all that young for that league. He had a .941 OPS but only 168 PAs. He did well when promoted to single A, but again, an .872 OPs in just 134 PAs is somewhat suspect. All total, his 2018 season, which go everyone all gah gah was just over 300 PAs, in total. In 2019, he had 226 PAs at A+ ball and really shined. His .998 OPS certainly justified his promotion to AA at age 22. Many very good baseball minds think the only numbers that really count with prospects are at AA and higher levels. His .634 OPS in his largest sample size in the minors (352 PAs) was not encouraging. His .737 OPS in 101 PAs in the fall league did little to improve his outlook. He's only had 37 PAs in the PRWL, this year and has a .498 OPS, so far. I'll be happy to be proven wrong on his readiness. I'm not saying that he'll never make it, but to me, it's pretty clear, he's not ML ready, now.

We need pitching, pitching, pitching and a CF/RF'er. If we spend resources on a LF'er, too, it will likely mean we go lighter in higher need areas. We have Renroe, already, and while everyone is talking platoon due to his great splits vs LHPs, he's actually somewhat decent vs RHPs, too. He could hold down a FT LF position for a while, if needed. He averages 30 HRs per 650 PAs ve RHPs, and while his .717 career OPS v RHPs is not all that great, it's not awful. His last full season, 2019, he had a .733 OPS vs RHPs with a 650m pro-rated HR total of 39. (It was 53 HRs v LHPs!) I think the best plan is to roll the dice in LF with a Beni-Renroe platoon. If Beni does well, maybe he squeezes Renroe into a 4th OF'er/back-up DH, PH slot. Renroe couldplay RF with Verdugo polaying CF'er, if we are having issues with whatever CF'er we add, this winter.

We don't need to give Beni 3 months of negative performance. We will likely sign a CF'er or RF'er (move Verdugo to CF) and be ready, if Beni struggles. We could also try a LF platoon with Renfroe. I share oldtimer's concerns on Beni, but trading him, now, would likely not bring us much in return. His upside potential is worth more than what we'll get back. Yes, he seems to have downside potential, too, but since we won't get much by trading him, now, the loss will not be that great. Also, it's not like our roster is so full, Beni is denying some promising young player a slot on the 26 or 40 man roster. Our OF roster depth is one of our weakest areas. Duran is NOT ML ready. Wilson? LOL. Worst case scenario: he sucks out of the gate, we demote him to AAA, and if he continues to suck we cut him loose. Picking up a decent LF'er mid season is not usually all that costly.

This deal was accepted by BTV: Beni, Chavis, Ward & Arauz for Reyes, Boyd & Goodrum

True. With players like Beni, it might not make sense to trade him, now, when his stock is as low as ever. He's got a bum rap, in some ways. His 2019 season was not all that bad, and young players often have a step back year as the approach prime. Arouz is still very young. He was only on the roster due to rule 5. His trading value may not be high enough to help us get anything of need. His upside for us may be worth holding onto. We'll have to give up some players other teams like to get anything back of value, except with salary dump type players. The one area we may be able to cash in on is acquiring good players other teams can't afford, but whose contracts are not all that bad for us.

Here are some salary dump players that we may or may not want or need, but who may help us get a quality player as part of the package. While some of the players have only one year left on their contracts, their GMs may be dying to dump them, and their contract will be gone from out ledger after just one season. AL East BAL Cobb $15M ($14.3 Lux Tax) BTV Value: -11.6 Possible players we want: SP Means 26.1 OF Santander 20.2 1B/OF Mountcastle 16.8 OF Mancini 14.4 LHP Scott 13.0 LHP Fry 7.3 TBR Kiermaier $24M/2+opt ($8.9M Lux Tax) -9.7 Tsutsugo $7M/1 ($6M Lux Tax) -3.3 Possible players: Closer: Anderson 23.8 SP: Yarbrough 13.0 SP: Fleming 11.7 RHP: Fairbanks 9.4 LHP: Beeks 5.8 OF: Margot 4.0 1B/3B: Brosseu 3.4 TOR OF Grichuk $31M/1 ($10.4M Lux Tax) -12.6 SP Roark $12M/1 ($12M) -9.7 Possible players: OF Hernandez 31.9 (probably not realistic) OF/2B Gurriel 26.3 SP Thorton 6.1 LHP Kay 5.5 SP Stripling 3.2 AL Central KC Duffy $15.5M/1 ($13M) -9.0 OF Soler $8.1M ($8.1) +2.4 Possible players: 2B/OF Merrifield 36.9 SP Keller 19.2 RHP Barlow 13.7 1B/3B Dozier 6.4 SP Juniz 5.8 DET SP Boyd ~$6.5M arb + 1 more arb 0.0 BTV Possible players: OF Reyes 16.8 OF Cameron 4.0 OF Jones 3.8 2B Goodrum 2.6 CLE Carrasco $24M/2 + opt ($11.8M) +8.8 Possible players: SP Quantrill 7.8 OF Luplow 6.1 LHP Allen 2.8 MN 3B Donaldson $73M/3 ($23M)-37.1 3B/1B Sano $25M/2 ($10M) -5.0 SP Pineda $10M/1 +2.3 Possible players: OF Buxton 19.5 SP Dobnak 17.5 LHP Smeltzer 7.9 CWS SP Keuchel $38M/2 ($18.3) -7.5 OF Eaton $7M/1 + opt ($8) -2.4 Possible players: LHP Bummer 19.7 RHP Heuer 6.9 2B/SS Mendick 4.3 AL West TX 2B Odor $24.7M/2 + opt ($8.3) -25.9 SS/2B Andrus $28.5M/2 +opt ($15) -16.9 SP Lyles $8M/1 ($8) -8.0 OF Dahl $2.7M/1 + 2 arbs -1.7 Possible players: OF Gallo 23.9 RHP Leclerc 17.7 SP Allard 6.7 SP Palumbo 6.3 SEA 3B Seager $18.5M/1 + opt ($14.3) -6.9 SP Kikuchi $31M/2 ($14) -3.3 Possible players: 3B/OF Moore 12.3 C Murphy 8.9 SP Margevicius 3.8 SP Dunn 3.3 2B Long 2.2 OAK DH/OF Davis $16.8M/1 ($16.8) -15.3 OF Piscotty $15M/2 + opt ($5.8M) -12.7 Possible players: SP Manaea 10.9 2B/3B Neuse 3.5 HOU SP Greinke $32.9M ($34.4) -18.6 RHP Pressley $8.8M + opt ($6.8) -2.4 1B Gurriel ~$10M (last arb) -2.2 Possible players: SP Javier 14.4 OF/2B Straw 3.7 RHP Paredes 3.1 RHP James 2.0 LAA OF Upton $52.7/2 ($21.2) -42.7 Possible players: SP Canning 30.1 SP Sandoval 10.3 SP Heaney 9.6 SP Suarez 5.6 2B Rengifo 1.9 NL East NYM 2B Cano $48M/2 ($24M) -40.5 RHP Familia $11.7M/1 ($10M)-13.0 RHP Betances -$6M/1 ($6M) 3.5 Possible players: OF Nimmo 32.7 OF Conforto 26.8 SP Syndergaard 18.9 SP Peterson 11.1 ATL OF Inciarte $8.7M/1 + opt ($8M) -9.4 LHP Smith $26M/2 +opt ($13,3) -8.4 Possible players: 3B/OF Riley 19.5 SP Wright 7.2 SP Wilson 6.7 LHP Minter 3.7 LHP Newcomb 0.9 PHI LF McCutchen $20M/1 + opt ($16.7M)-18.0 2B Kingery $19M/3 +opt ($4M) -17.7 Possible players: SP Eflin 19.3 RHP Abel 17.3 OH Hasely 6.2 SP Velasquez 5.6 LHP Romero 2.8 MIA OF Dickerson $9.5M/1 ($8.9)-4.2 OF Brinson Pre-arb 0.2 Possible players: SP Lopez 63.0 SP Hernandez 10.7 OF Harrison 10.1 SS/2B Rojas 7.5 OF Ramirez 3.4 LHP Bleier 3.0 NL Central Cubs OF Heyward $65M/3 ($23M) -55.3 Closer Kimbrel $16M/1 + opt ($14M) -10.8 SP Darvish $59M/3 ($21M) +21.0 Possible players: 2B Hoerner 30.1 OF Happ 28.9 1B Rizzo 18.9 SP Alzolay 6.4 LHP Wieck 5.4 3B/OF Bryant 5.3 RHP Wick 4.2 3B/2B Bote 3.3 MIL OF Cain $35M/2 ($16M) -17.7 OF Garcia $11M/1 +opt ($10M) -7.8 Possible players: SP Woodruff 130.9 SP Burnes 71.1 SS/2B Urias 26.6 LHP Hader 15.5 SP Houser 14.6 SP Lindblom 7.6 RHP Rasmussen 5.5 C Narvaez 4.6 OF Taylor 1.7 STL 1B Goldschmidt $101.3M/4 ($26M) -36.7 SP Mikolas $51M/3 ($17M)-27.7 OF Fowler $16.6M/1 ($16.5M) -17.0 3B/1B Carpenter $18.5M/1+ opt ($19.5M) -14.7 LHP Miller $12M/1-9.3 RHP Martinez $11.7M/1+Opt -5.8 C Heineman ).0 2B Moroff 0.0 Possible players: SP Hudson 28.0 OF Bader 19.4 RHP Gallegos 14.2 OF O'Neill 8,3 RHP Reyes 5.5 OF Thomas 5.0 PIT OF Polanco $11.6M/1 ($11.6) -13.5 1B Bell ~$6M arb + 3rd arb 0.0 2B Frasier ~$4M + 3rd arb +4.0 SP Taillon $2.3M + 3rd arb +20.3 SP Musgrove ~$4M + 3rd arb +36.4 Possible players: C Stallings 8.4 2B Newman 5.6 CIN 1B Votto -85.9 2B Moustakas -19.6 OF Castellanos -17.6 SP Miley -4.1 OF Akiyama -3.4 LHP Biddle 0.0 RHP De Leon 0.0 RHP Romana 0.0 OF Smith Jr 0.0 Possible players: SP Castillo 114.8 SP S Grar 35.9 SP Mahle 33.9 OF Senzel32.9 OF Winker 26.0 RHP Sims 9.8 SP Antone9.5 RHP Lorenzen 4.9 C Barnhart 2.4 NL West LAD OF Pollock $31M/2 + opt ($12M) -21.2 Closer Jansen $20M/1 ($16M) -14.8 RHP Kelly $8.3M + opt ($8.3M) -10.6 Possible players: SP Urias 47.4 LHP Ferguson 9.4 C Barnes 6.9 SDP 1B Hosmer $81M/5 ($18M) -71.0 OF Myers $45M/2 + opt ($13.8M) -17.0 LHP Pomeranz $28M/3 ($8.5M) -3.5 Possible players: SP Lamet 69.9 OF Grisham 40.2 C Campusano 30.1 (prospect) SS/2B Croneworth 29.5 C/1B Nola 20.2 SP Morejon 12.0 C/OF Mejia 3.6 AZ SP Bumgarner $79M/4 ($17M) -49.0 2B/SS Ahmed $26M/3 ($8.1M) -7.6 Possible players: 2B/OF Marte 61.4 $15M/2+ 2 options SP Weaver 12.6 SP Smith 7.9 UT Locastro 5.7 SF 3B Longoria $43M/2 + opt ($11.2M) -41.5 SP Cueto $26M/1 + opt ($21.7M) -21.3 1B/C Posey $25.1M +opt ($18.6M) -9.6 SS Crawford $15.2M/1 ($12.5M) -6.6 1B Belt $17.2M/1 ($14.6M) -0.6 Possible players: OF Yasrzemski 58.7 OF Slater 14.5 SP Webb 13.6 UT Flores 9.1 RHP Anderson 3.7 COL 3B Arenado $32.5M x 5 -43.7 OF Blackmon $52M/3 ($18M) -27.5 OF Desmond $8M/1 +opt ($14M) -10.0 Possible players: SS/2B Rodgers 26.6 1B/2B McMahon 8.8 SP Freeland 8.1 SP Gray 6.7 SP Lambert 6.6

It depends on how much the player we get back is being paid. What seems like a reasonable contract, to us, may be a salary dump for the other team, and they'd gladly take Chatham or Arauz to rid themselves of a contract. Or not.

The only "added value" to Arauz is that he no longer needs to stay on the 26 man roster. Since he's barely good enough or ready enough to make many 26 man rosters, I'm not sure the 2.1 value BTV gives him is even justifiable. Chavis seems like he has the profile of dozens of players DFA'd every year, and some of them don't even K as much as he does. Quite frankly, I'm shocked by the 7.5 value BTV gives him, and that's one reason he's included in almost every suggested trade I make. If there's a GM out tehre that thinks that value is about right, we need to hunt him down and force a deal at gunpoint. Chatham at 4.5 seems way over-rated. I doubt he can even make half the teams 40 man rosters. Duran at 12.1 seems a little high, but even if that is his true value, if we end up getting Kiermaier or Inciarte, losing Duran is not going to leave a hole. Mata at 12.4,Casas at 22.2 and Downs at 26.4 should only be included if we get a key player with 3+ years of team control at a reasonable salary (arb?) Jimenez 8.5, Yorke 6.3, Jordan & Lugo at 6.0 might be wanted by teams looking 3-5 years down the road, but I'm also not for emptying the farm for some distant hope that we can win it all in 2021 or 2022. Ward 4.5, Wong 4.3, Song 3.8 and Groome 3.7 maybe be add-ons that get a GM to take a deal, but only teams not looking to compete for quite a while.

I'm almost 100% certain a deal like this will be made- maybe even two: one for Kiemaier or Inciarte and one for Kingery or Odor. I don't see Duffy being good enough to fill a nigh need slot. Familia still may have a good year or two in him. I'm not sure Yarbrough, Fleming or Fairbanks are good enough to help us all that much, but maybe Anderson from TB can be gotten. Maybe we can pry 2 of these pitchers out of TB. Baz would be nice, but he's no help for 2021. Then, there is the $100,000 question of who,if anybody, the Rays want. I could see us getting Kiermaier, Fleming & Fairbanks. Is that a big help, even if we get them for Chavis & Chatham. The Braves may not even want Dalbec, and even if they do, what pitcher would they give us for taking on Inciarte's contract? I think getting Odor or Kingery may allow us to get better players and or give less in return. I'd like to see one shoe drop. This winter is dragging.

I think that has to be viewed as the best way for us to acquire quality players. Rather than just sign JBJ, take on Kiermaier or Inciarte's contract, add some useful and valued talent like Duran or Dalbec (Chavis, Chatham Ward or Groome, if we can get away with it) and get a pitcher much cheaper than a FA. We fill two needs: CF and SP at much less financial cost than signing JBJ & Odorizzi. Then, with the "savings" we sign a couple very good RP'er and maybe a 2Bman and call it a winter.

I think everyone would rather keep Duran over Beni, but that also means other GMs would want Duran more than Beni, too, and they'd give back more to get him. Teams looking to cut salary may not even want Beni, if you gave him for free. A Beni, Chavis & Arauz package may not get us anyone, let alone a player that fills a high need area as a plus player. That trade would also open a 2021 hole in the OF that is already a priority.

I'd prefer combinations of lesser valued players like Chavis & Chatham, but I seriously doubt other GMs want them all that much, if at all. They'd be 40 man roster bubble players on several teams. There are guys like Ward & Groome, but neither are going to bring back the world, even when added to 2-3 others listed above. That leaves Downs, Dalbec and Duran. I'd hesitate to add Mata to the list. Casas might be a guy we trade for someone with 3-4+ years of team control. I really like Dalbec, but we can always sign Moreland. (So could other GMs, instead of trading for Dalbec.)

Getting Stallings added on from Pitt could make it happen

Hartless!

Good one!

These simpler deals are much more likely than my 6 player deals. We'd need another trade or signing to fill our catcher slot, unless you are okay with Plawecki/Grullon with Wong a ways off.

The way he's heading, he may be a better hitter than pitcher, before too long.