moonslav59

When did I say that? We are talking about Barnes signing now vs next winter and not now vs last winter. Even if you go by last year's 3 biggest RP'er deals, this looks like a nice extension for the team. I still se it as a steal. Maybe highway robbery was hyperbole, but this was a steal. Had there been a FA market in early July, Barnes would have gotten much more, and not just based on the recency effect.

I thought one of the issues was acquiring only power hitters.

WOW! There was talk Mayer might want too much money to allow for expensive late round picks. NICE!

Yes, but that doesn't mean they want to start the clock right away. The Sox history of re-sets often includes 2-3 year under the line stretches. To me, I think the team is looking at a window from 2022 to 2025 as being a better chance at winning it all than 2021. Preventing us from reaching year 3 of the tax in 2023 might be a valid priority. (Assuming this type of tax structure is still around, then.)

Throw out the .830 over his last 80, too? Why? The kid is just starting his ML career. Ups and downs are expected. We have no idea what we can expect going forward. He is not likely going to be a .950 hitter, but I doubt he'll be a .600 hitter either. .745 is pretty good for any player's first 350 PAs in MLB, or at worst, it's not bad enough to end the experiment. I'm not happy with what he's done, this year. His leash is short. I'm not sure the next 2 1/2 weeks are going to sway anyone's opinion either. I'd like to see us make a cheap deal like the Pearce one we made in 2018, but I won't be crushed if we stick with Dalbec or maybe give Cordero, Marwin or Chavis some looks at 1B along the way. To me, our biggest need is pitching and defense.

Umm, stadiums are full again.

Yes, and a career .687 OPS is better than "decent." It is .701 Home and .670 Away Barnes turned a corner in 2017, so I'm not sure counting his first few years does justice to who he is now. Let's look at his OPS Against starting in 2017: .655 .624 .666 .706 (short 2020 season) .518 (so far, this year) Kimbrel since 2017 .444 .565 1.019 (2019) .693 .330 .

No, it's not, although ERA is not a good RP'er stat. His 1.288 WHIP is nothing to write home about either, but his K rate has been off the charts and his FIP is decent. The thing is, decent gets you more than $8M a year, these days. The "recency effect" often warps many deals much higher. Whta Barnes does over the next 3 months might greatly affect what he would have gotten as a FA next winter.

He bats righty. His career and 2021 OPS is about what Dalbec's career OPS is.

Yes. I wasn't trying to argue Mayer belongs above Casas, although I'm sure some ranking services may place him #1 in our system. I was just curious what it would take from Mayer for posters to jump him over Casas. (What Casas does in the next few months may affect that equation, too.)

If we want to re-set, like I think we do, we have about $4.5M to add to the budget. If we are picking up a player or two, we are only paying about 1/3 of their 2021 salary and only 1/3 of the tax line number counts against the tax line. We also may be replacing a salary or two, which may be subtracted from what we add. We could add $4.9M in salary while cutting $400K and still squeak under the tax line.

It's hard to know if a .673 OPS is what we can expect, going forward. Dalbec hit .959 in 92 Pas in 2020. He hit .507 in 92 PAs to start the 2021 season. He hit .778 in his next 94 PAs. He's hit .743 in his last 65 PAs but .830 over is last 80 PAs. Does anyone know who the real Dalbec is or will become? I realize that in the thick of a pennant chase, trying to find out can be hurtful to the team's chances, and certainly Dalbec has had some very hurtful stretches. I can understand why people want to platoon or demote or replace him. I wanted him demoted a while back, but that was when I had higher hopes for Santana and Chavis. I can see us replacing Santana and or Chavis with a LH'd hitting 1Bman, but I doubt we trade anyone very promising.

The first day of the MLB first-year player draft wrapped last night, and the Red Sox selected Marcelo Mayer with the fourth overall pick. Boston will have nine picks on Monday during Day Two of the draft, starting with pick number 40 at the start of the second round followed by picks 75 and 105. Here's a look at some of the best players available according to Baseball America (BA), MLB Pipeline (MLB), and Perfect Game (PG). Bubba Chandler, RHP, North Oconee (GA) (20 BA, 21 MLB, 24 PG) Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustice (NJ) (28 BA, 17 MLB, 33 PG) Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (SC) (21 BA, 20 MLB, 17 PG) Jud Fabian, OF, Florida (27 BA, 23 MLB, 37 PG) Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU (24 BA, 36 MLB, 74 PG) Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield (MA) (31 BA, 24 MLB, 47 PG) Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami (25 BA, 42 MLB, 55 PG) Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama (26 BA, 35 MLB, 32 PG) Wes Kath, 3B, Desert Mountain (AZ) (54 BA, 34 MLB, 72 PG) Alex Mooney, SS, St, Mary (MI) (66 BA, 64 MLB, 28 PG) Boston's selection of Mayer at #4 overall leaves their bonus pool status up in the air. Early speculation is that it might take slightly over the $6.7 million allocated slot bonus to sign Mayer - but like I said, it's speculation. If that is indeed the case, the Red Sox might need to find some savings in the second and/or third round, which could mean drafting a player or two that might be considered a slight reach at those slots. Check out our Draft Preview for some players that might fit that mold, such as Boston College SS Cody Morissette, Fordham LHP Matt Mikulski, and Michigan LHP Steven Hajjar. Other possibilities include Virginia LHP Andrew Abbott, Ole Miss LHP Doug Nikhazy, and Alabama RHP Dylan Smith. The second round kicks off at 1:00 pm ET today. Follow all of the action at SoxProspects.com.

Is .830 the threshold? That's what Casas did at age 19 in A/A+ ball (500 PAs). He's at .745 in AA, this year (182 PAs).

Change the wording from Santana to Santana/Chavis.

I should have clarified by saying weakest starter. Replacing Santana is not going to shake things up, too much, unless the guy we get replaces a starter. (I also didn't mention Andriese/Rios/Workman, but when you go with 13 pitchers, I'm not sure how much they can hurt the team.) Also, I am not for replacing Dalbec, right now. It's a close call, and an argument for a platoon is stronger, but we may know more by July 30th.

He was very good before 2020's 23 IP sample size. From 2017-2019: 3.77 ERA (123 ERA+) 3.12 FIP over 196 IP 1.288 WHIP (fueled by a 4.5 BB/9 rate) 13.3 K/9 If you throw out 2020's seemingly outlier bad 1/3 season and 2021's seemingly outlier great 2021 1/2 season, he's a solid RP'er, who IMO is worth way more than what he got.

Whitlock being a steal or a bigger steal does not negate Barnes being a steal. Maybe we don't agree on the term "steal," but to me, leaving 33-50% on the table is a steal.

Is there still no waiver wire deals in August allowed?

I think I read somewhere he hasn't lifted weights.

I'm not a Dalbec fan, but don't understand why he is targeted as a total disaster when he is tied for 5th on the team in rbi's despite getting the fewest at bats among the regulars. - Max People identify the weakest link and obsess over improving that slot. If we replace Dalbec, they'll move onto the next guy and repeat forever.

I don't think Bloom is even looking at anyone who would cost him Duran, Down, Casas and maybe more, unless he does not value one as much as the other GM does. Trading for someone with one more year of control- not a 2 month rental- sounds nice, but I think Bloom is looking longer term. He'll make a deal or two that costs us no top prospect. Maybe someone he knows he will not be able to protect for rule 5 (Ward, German, Scherff, Winckowski...?) We were able to get Eovaldi and Pearce without trading a top prospect in 2018. I think that is the type of deal Bloom is looking for.

Sounds like patience is no longer a virtue. I'm glad they had it with Renfroe. I could create a much longer list.

If we can go $19M over the tax line, we'll have enough to sign 2-3 excellent players- maybe a SP'er, top set-up man and someone else (RP, SP, ???) I could see us signing one of the older SP'ers on the market due to a shoter term deal and less long term risk. (Verlander/ Greinke) Maybe we bring Ottavino back as well as another very good closer/set up man like Archie Bradley or Raisel Iglesias. Let's assume we sign Verlander, Ottavino & Iglesias... (+ Moreland) Sale, Velander, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Whitlock Barnes, Iglesias, Ottavino, Houck, Perez, Sawamura, DHern, Taylor Vaz, Plawecki Dalbec, Moreland Arroyo Bogey Devers Verdugo, Cordero Kike, Duran Renfroe JD Rest of the 40: Bello, Mata, Seabold, Groome, Winckowski, Ward Brasier, Bazardo, Valdez Ronaldo Hernandez, Wong Downs Jimenez, Rosario 1 from Potts, Arauz, Wilson, German, Scherff, T Reed, Ort, Cottam Rule 5

Yes, Yorke has been hot at Salem. My bad.