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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    We are one injury to a top 3 RP'er away from serious trouble- agreed, but the hope is Crawford, Sandoval or Oviedo can slide into a high leverage role. Tolle & Early should stay starting in AAA as long as we can afford to do it.
  2. moonslav59
    Suarez & Gray dont have to improve on Gio and Bello- they will improve on Gio and Buehler. Bello is still here and moved down a notch. The Contreras bat should be almost equal to what Breggie gives this year. It's the Devers and Ref numbers that went unfilled. We are a better team, IMO- it's just a matter of degree.
  3. moonslav59
    His splits with KCR only- kinda like you used for the Rodgers HOU tiny sample sizes, but in reverse.
  4. moonslav59
    Neto hit HRs at about 30 per 650, last year. 30 SBs, too. The .319 OBP was not good. The K's were not good. At 24, there is a lot of room for growth. Oh well. I gotta admit, it's getting very tiring hearing about how close we came to this guy and that guy. It's worse than hearing we missed by a mile on guys like Alonso. If the Halos wanted Tolle, Valera and Arias or Witherspoon, I can understand moving onto Durbin, who looks like a steal at this point, but we needed a power bat and an infielder and we missed out on KMarte, Paredes and Neto.
  5. moonslav59
    True, but we got zero GS from Crawford and Sandoval. Merloni is super high on Crawford: I have my doubts, but both out guys are pretty talented, too. I'd prefer to not count on much from any returning-from-injury SP'ers on all teams.
  6. moonslav59
    The more I think about missing out on Neto, the more I wonder how close we got, and of course what the demand was. I like Durbin and his upside, but Neto looked like the infielder and power bat we needed- all in one. High K rate, but can steal bases and showed some flash on D, despite not so good metrics. Let's see how this pans out. Word is the Angels were asking for a ton.
  7. moonslav59
    Bieber to start season on IL. Another ALE pitcher not making the opening day roster.
  8. moonslav59
    LOL! And throw in Sandoval & Eaton.
  9. moonslav59
    I think soxprospects.com does a fine job. When you read the summaries of many of our higher ranked prospects, they often sound very cautious. Here are some examples: Tolle: Potential mid-rotation starter, but projection is fluid Early: Potential fourth/fifth starter. Ceiling of a quality third starter. Arias: Potential everyday regular at shortstop. Ceiling of a quality regular who provides value with his glove and contact ability. Witherspoon: Has mid-rotation upside Valera: Has the early makings of a potential high-end starting pitching prospect.
  10. moonslav59
    Some selected fangraphs OPS projections: .858 KMarte .851 Schwarber .831 Alonso .810 Devers .804 Anthony .801 Paredes .789 Abreu & Murakami ,787 Bichette .786 Contreras .784 ESuarez & Bregman .783 Casas .775 Neto & Ozuna .769 Okamoto .768 Yoshida .765 Polanco .763 Duran .755 Donovan, ,754 Bohm & B Lowe .746 Durbin .731 Hoerner .726 Refsnyder .725 Rafaela & Mayer
  11. moonslav59
    Everyday Players in ALE 6.7 Judge NYY 5.7 Henderson BAL 4.8 Guerrero TOR 4.2 Kirk TOR 4.0 Caminero TBR (Neto was ranked 12th in the AL at 3.7) 3.5 Rutschman BAL 3.1 Chisholm & Wells NYY 2.8 Y Diaz TBR & Bellinger NYY 2.7 Alonso BAL 2.6 Rafaela (12th best in ALE) 2.5 Okamoto TOR 2.2 Grisham & Rice NYY Gimenez TOR 2.1 T Ward BAL & Volpe NYY 2.0 Duran (19th) Narvaez (19th) Abreu (19th) 4 in top 21, but bunched near the bottom of the top 21.
  12. moonslav59
    I'll be fair and present the everyday players, later, but here are the top projected fWARs for ALE pitchers only in 2026: 5.5 Crochet 3.9 Cease 3.8 Gray 3.7 Fried 3.2 Suarez (Sox with 3 in top 5) 3.1 Bradish 2.9 Gausman & McClanahan 2.8 Rasmussen (TBR w 2 in top 9) 2.4 Bieber (TOR w 3 in top 10) 2.3 Ponce (TOR w 4 in top 11) 2.2 Rodon (NYY 2 in top 12-4) & T Rogers (BAL w 2 in top 12-14) Yesavage (TOR 5 in top 12-14) 2.1 Pepiot (TBR 3 in top 15) 2.0 Cole (NYY 3 in top 16) 1.9 Baz (BAL 3 in top 17) 1.9 Bello (4 in top 18)
  13. moonslav59
    Player ages: 35-37 Cole, Stanton, Goldschmidt, LeMahieu, Cruz 32-34 Judge, Fried, Rodon, Stanton, Yarbrough, A Slater, Blackburn Sox 35-37: Gray, Chapman 32-34: Contreras, Story, Yoshida
  14. moonslav59
    Anthony played a half year. Slaten for about half. Casas missed all but about 5-6 weeks. Mayer missed about half a year. Abreu and others missed time. Crawford and Sandoval played zero. Of course, neither is Cole, but both had some very nice stretches in their careers. I've tried hard to avoid counting on the promise of returning players, but I'm calling it out when it becomes the basis for why the Yanks will be better than 2025. They are an aging team that made very few changes. Yes, Cole could be a huge boost, and he might lead them to a ring. He could also just be a decent pitcher. Rodon has missed time- off and on- a lot. I'm just saying either count on all injured players on all teams to return to form or none. I'm choosing to be cautious about ours and theirs.
  15. moonslav59
    MLBTR... Reese Olsen out for year. Santander may miss the whole season. Lindor may need Hamate surgery. Astros seeking LHB OF'er for Paredes. Verlander signs with Tigers.
  16. moonslav59
    Why is Cease & Desist so surely better than Bichette & Bassitt? I didn't even want Cease. I liked Okamoto, but he's surer bet than Contreras. Why do we put so much trust in other teams' returning from injury pitching, when we've seen first hand how that almost always works out. I do agree that Rodon should be fine, but "early May" often turns into June or July. I would rank the Jays and Yanks ahead of the Sox, but the Yanks just barely. I think the Contreras OPS might equal Bregman's and our infield defense improved by enough to cancel out the loss of Bregma's defense. To me, it's the loss of Devers that hurt the most, but if we count on Cole's return, why not Anthony, who will be 100% on the first day of ST'ing?
  17. moonslav59
    What did the Yankee, Oriole and Jays franchises do over the winter? The Yanks basically stood pat. The Athletic gave them a C. They added some depth and lost very little. You want to count their players returning from injury, but not Anthony, Abreu, Mayer, Crawford, Sandoval, Slaten, Casas, Masa... The O's added a lot, but started off pretty low. They still don't have an ace but did add Baz. The addition of Helsley, Alonso and Ward were very nice. They lost a couple key players too. The Jays added some big names (Cease & Okamoto) but lost Bichette and Bassitt. We lost Bregman, Gio, Ref, 1/2 Devers but also Buehler. We added Suarez, Gray, Contreras, Durbin and Oviedo. I'm not seeing anyone kin the ALE but the O's doing much better than we did.
  18. moonslav59
    Not what's happening here? Huh? They set the odds based on 50-50 betting. If it's opening odds, they set in what they think will be 50-50 betting, and not on what they think the results will be. The end results may be similar, but vegas odds are not projections.
  19. moonslav59
    Betting odds are not projections.
  20. moonslav59
    "Never a threat?" like you mean when they played them in the actual series they played? They outscored the Dodgers 15-13 in their series. PHI beat LAD 4-2 during the season. I'm not sure why you have to speak in such absolutes.
  21. moonslav59
    Thanks. That's pretty damn close. BTW, Vegas sets odds based on how people are expected and are betting and NOT on who they think will win. They seek to get 50% to 50% and win the vig. They don't seek to pick the winning team- that would be gambling.
  22. moonslav59
    While I do think we should not neglect the fact that no big bat was added, Contreras is no slouch and may feast on pitchers at Fenway. Maybe Durbin can improve on his rookie year, as may Anthony, Narvaez & Mayer.
  23. moonslav59
    Found this... Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodón is recovering from October 2025 surgery to remove bone spurs and loose bodies in his left elbow, putting him on track to return to the rotation in April or May 2026. He has begun throwing and reports improved mobility, feeling "great" during his rehab in Florida. This is his second major elbow procedure following Tommy John surgery in 2019. Late April and early May is the targeted return time for Rodon Cole was really good back in 2023. He has to prove he's back. Gerrit Cole is recovering from March 2025 Tommy John surgery with internal bracing for a right elbow ligament tear and is expected to return to the Yankees in May or June 2026.
  24. moonslav59
    You listed 5 and a fully washed up Goldschmidt being mentioned cannot be serious. Stanton? LMAO. He just turned 86...errr...I mean 36. (If he can get 500-550 PAs, maybe, but you can say that about a lot of players.) Ben Rice is at the age where he could add enough to hit 30. Grisham never hit over 17, until last year, but yes, he can be counted. Chisholm did it once, too, but he counts. Judge might hit 10, if he's on the IL. Of course, he counts. I'd say 5 is pushing it, 4 could happen, and 2-3 is most likely. Now, give Abreu 600 PAs in '25 and he hits 30. Contreras in Fenway might have a better chance at 30 than Stanton. If you can count Rice and Stanton, I'm counting Casas! That's three! No doubt, the Yanks kill us in power and overall offense. Their pitching depends totally on 3 returning from injury pitchers and a 32 year old Max Fried.
  25. moonslav59
    "At best?" Really? You think the chances are too low for us to be third place at best? Of course, we might finish last (at worst...LOL.) I think we are better the the O's and very close to the Yanks. You do know that Cole, Rodon and Schmidt are expected to start the season on the IL, right? We've all seen up front and personal how many Sox pitchers started on the IL and came back to do great, right? Dozens and dozens, right?
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