moonslav59

Last winter got me wondering if we were cycling back towards spending more. The Devers dump put that idea on hold. Now, we see a $21M/1 deal for Gray replace the $21M/1 deal for Buehler. We see Oviedo replace the $38M/2 Gio. We see a rookie replacing Bregman. We hear talk or a Casas resurrection and 300 more PAs from Anthony as our rallying center points. It is a joke- I agree. Of course there is still time to make some significant adds, but why should we expect it? I'm not sure why we should even hope for it, despite within about a year watching JH sign Devers to the largest and longest deal in team history by about 25-30% and Bregman to the larges AAV deal by about 30% over the Devers deal. Both are gone- POOF!

Word is that AZ wants Mayer for Marte. Not sure what else. The money might be an issue for JH, so maybe Mayer, Hicks and_____? (DHam/Crawford/Mullins)

I had no expectations going in- just hopes. Spending $21M on Gray for 1 year tipped their hand. Same ole-same ole. (That's exactly what we paid Buehler and for the same one and done length.)

Okay, but my sample was 34+ not 32+. under 23 (2016-2025) fWAR (the sample sizes were both about 200 players deep at 300+ PAs) 3 @7+ 6 @ 6-6.9 16 @ 5-5.9 20 @ 4-4.9 30 @ 3-3.9 40 @ 2-2.9 (105 over 2.0 vs 64 over 34 yr olds) 50 @ 1.-1.9 (155 over 1.0 vs 118 over 34)

..and Devers too. BTW, Bregman went down in May. We did greatly improved at 1B (Lowe) and 2B (Romy) as the season went on.

I don't expect them all to, but seriously, we know one or two likely will, or someone unexpected will get hurt or have a down year. I know you are not trying to say our whole plan is for in house players to all step up or carry the torch, but if the rest of the plan is just to strive for staying even, we are doing just that. It's not like it can't happen. We DO have some really good young talent, and just as I am pointing out that a few players will disappoint us, a few ill likely do better than we expected or even hoped they'd do. We have a large selection of young, up-and-coming players that we don't need all of them to greatly improve- just a couple or three, maybe. Maybe Casas has a great year, and Rafaela hits .590. Maybe Mayer does well, but Romy and Story decline from '25. Maybe we get Bregman, and he gets 650 PAs, but hits .750. Maybe Anthony doubles his PAs but does not match his '25 OPS. Maybe Mayer takes up the slack. My point is, this team is so full or "maybes" and not many "shoulds" and "wills." Where do you see us likely to be better, if we bring back Bregman and add a RP'er(s) that matches Matz/Wilson/Benardino?

Good thing I'm off to Cancun, tomorrow and can distract myself. (Our daughter gets married Saturday!)

The thing is, Fred, Bregman doesn't do it for me. They've molded many fans into thinking running the same team back is some sort of accomplishment. (Not you.) Last opening day, we had Bregman. We also had Devers, Gio, Refsnyder and high hopes for Houck, Duran, Abreu and others and moderate hopes for Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Casas, Hendriks and so many others.

We don't need five to six $10M players: we need two $30M guys.

Sadly, we may back ourselves into such a dark corner that the only way out is to trade away the future and end up like 2020 in 2030, just to get a sniff at one ring before then.

I don't need to self flagellate. The Sox FO does a fine job by themselves. I'm tired or hearing, "but there is still ____ and ____ on the market." We keep missing out on the tippy top talent, and it's tippy top talent who wear the rings.

We need serious action- not dubious words.

I agree with this, but if you want to count guys like Cole coming back, we can say a lot about our returning players, too. None are like Cole, but the sheer number is daunting: Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, Slaten plus guys like Moran and rookies like Early, Tolle and maybe Perales and others. Anthony, Mayer, Casas, Yoshida, Abreu. Maybe Campbell busts out. I'd rather not rely on hopes for returning injured players to get back to form, quickly. We need to add healthy and high quality players. Players better than Bregman or two Bregmans.

It's not like Alonso was the next Soto, but it makes you think, if the offer to Soto was legit, why can't we afford Alonso?

I like Casas on offense a lot. I've been posting his numbers for weeks, but we can't put this window of opportunity on his shoulders, not have him share it with Anthony, Mayer and others. We also have to factor in new injuries and regressions from a few players. It happens every year. We expected more from Abreu, but got more from Story, instead. We expected more from Houck, but got shocked by Gio, instead. We were hopeful on DHam and or Campbell and then watched Romy steal the show. We ended up counting on Lowe, Romy, Matz, Early, Tolle and Weissert. Sure, there will be some upticks from guys like them, but we can't just run back the same team and expect better. It does happen, sometimes, but when you see a team like this- poised to explode, why not go a little overkill. Maybe not like DD did in 2018, but something to make us noticeably better. Please don't say Sonny Gray is going to lead us to the mountain top.

Of course- or 2-3 ...lol.

If all we do is sign Bregman and some mid level RP'er, I'm going to be super pissed off. I'd say I'll boycott games, but I haven't been in 2 years. I'd say I'll stop watching NESN, but I'm an addict needing my fix.

I found this with no mention of an earlier date: Only teams with available spots on their 40-man roster can participate in the Major League phase. I think we could have drafted, but traded for a Rule 5 guy instead.

It's not often players have great seasons after 32. Here is a list of top fWARs since 2016 by 34 or older players: 6.8 Goldschmidt 6.2 B Crawford 5.4 Kinsler 5.3 Posey 5.2 Beltre, Springer 5.1 Lowrie 4.7 Cruz, 4.6 Ortiz, 4.5 Cruz 3 @ 4.0, 3 @ 3.9, 4 @ 3.5-3.8 6 @ 3.0-3.4 15 @ 2.6-2.9 24 @ 2.0-2.4 That's 64 players at 2.0 plus in 10 years, or about 6-7 per season. 118 at 1.0 or more. That's not a lot. (12 per year.) Pitchers: 6 at 6.0+ 3 in the 5's 8 in the 4's 8 from 3.5 to 3.9 9 from 3.0 to 3,4 42 in the 2's That's 76 at 2.0 or more (7-8 per year) 155 at 1.0 or better (15-16 per year.)

Alonso will be 35 for his last season of this deal. That's to the midpoint of his 30's and no longer. I'd have been fine with a 6th yr added if it brought down the AAV a bit. Instead of $31M x 5, maybe $29M x 6. (He's make $21M in that extra year.)

We had a roster slot open and still do. (Grissom deal.)

There is "still time" and "plenty of talent out there," but there are plenty of teams looking more willing to ante up on the final asking price. We kinda lucked out that Bregman fell into our laps and we saw a resurgence by Gio and Story. We need to get bold before all that's left is mold.

The 10 year deal was basically "forvers," but that didn't last for any longer than the Gio deal.

If I had to guess, I'd say $150M/5 or $130M/4.

We seem to have mastered the trades for Rule 5 picks. So, that was the open slot on the 40- not ALONSO!